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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-01 Version:5

Prediction Map
DS0816 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
DS0816 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem9
 
pie
Rep28
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-5-5-10729-10
Rep+5+5+1000010818+10
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic93847
Republican282351
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
533221
piepiepie

Analysis

10.01.2010 | If Republicans get the 10 flips they need to win back majority control of the U.S. Senate, the pickups will occur in the following states: Arkansas; Colorado; Illinois; Indiana; Nevada; North Dakota; Pennsylvania; Washington; West Virginia; Wisconsin.

Since my last forecast [08.31.2010], Delaware has been removed. Most have it reverted back to a Democratic hold, reflective of the upset [09.14.2010] primary in which Christine O'Donnell won the Republican nod over congressman Mike Castle (who was rated, by Nate Silver, as more than a 90% likely pickup). But West Virginia has been inching closer to pickup. It's lately looking more like a toss-up.

In earlier forecasts, I took a chance that Connecticut would flip; it's a little less likely than Wisconsin, in which three-term incumbent Russ Feingold trails challenger Ron Johnson, who is lately reaching 50% in the polling.

Between the two pacific rim states vulnerable for Democrats, Washington is more tenuous for three-term Patty Murray. Also a three-termer, Barbara Boxer is a bit healthier, by comparsion, in California.

At this point, most have the Senate in a toss-up. Given my awareness of the fact that, every time the House has flipped since the World War II era so, too, did the Senate … I am presenting a scenario in which the GOP just reaches that 51st seat.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 4/56 0/56 4/112 3.6% pie 3 60 677678
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 10 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 18/33 49/66 74.2% pie 2 45 128T343
P 2010 Senate 32/37 21/37 53/74 71.6% pie 5 32 167T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 23/37 56/74 75.7% pie 1 32 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 3 1T103
P 2008 President 50/56 38/56 88/112 78.6% pie 10 2 276T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 2 24 281T407
Aggregate Predictions 238/310 158/310 396/620 63.9% pie



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