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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:19

Prediction Map
AntonioV Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
AntonioV Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep26
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep26
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-88311-8
Rep+4+4+800010818+8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic113849
Republican262349
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
623428
piepiepie

Analysis

Analysis based on 538.com's final forecast (http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/senate).

Tossup means the frontrunner has less than 60% chances of winning. Lean means it has between 60% and 80%. Strong means it has over 80% chances of prevailing.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: AntonioV (D-FRA) 2010-11-06 @ 17:05:41 prediction Map
Ok, so time for a restrospective comment (the merit/blame of course doesn't go to me, of course).

"I" was wrong for three States : Nevada (that's the biggest upset, but remember pollster badly underestimated dems in 2008 already), Colorado (though it was close enough not to be a fail) and Alaska (which was a race weird enough for some flukes). Also, dems did notably better in CA, WV and PA, and I think Ayotte was above 60% in NH.

Overall, no massive fluke, but I fear I will get a poor score because of a lot of narrowly missed percentages.

 By: AntonioV (D-FRA) 2010-11-10 @ 14:50:52 prediction Map
Aproximative calculation of my score...
Candidate ahead : 34/37
Correct percentage : 28/37
Global score : 62/74 (83.8%)

Quite disappointing, considering I got 90.9% in 2008. I won't be among the first ones as last time...


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 34/36 27/36 61/72 84.7% pie 8 0 13T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 18/36 49/72 68.1% pie 5 0 56T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 24 17T
P 2012 President 56/56 48/56 104/112 92.9% pie 15 0 13T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 19/33 50/66 75.8% pie 11 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 2 31 24T
P 2012 Rep Primary 44/52 23/52 67/104 64.4% pie 27 - 16T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 19 0 21T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 10 0 59T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 12 92T
P 2008 President 54/56 45/56 99/112 88.4% pie 9 0 26T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 27/33 60/66 90.9% pie 5 0 1T
P 2008 Governor 10/11 4/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 5 212T
Aggregate Predictions 376/402 271/402 647/804 80.5% pie



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