PredictionsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - SvenssonRS (I-WY) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:14

Prediction Map
SvenssonRS MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
SvenssonRS MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep30
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-6-6-12617-12
Rep+6+6+1200010818+12
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic73845
Republican302353
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
523022
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2010-11-01 @ 16:17:24 prediction Map
Last call here. It's been fun, everyone. :D

 By: gumball machine (L-CA) 2010-11-01 @ 17:28:33 prediction Map
Do you think that there will be a GOP wave larger than expected, or are the polls just inaccurate in CA and CT?

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-01 @ 17:33:25 prediction Map
Combo of the two I'm guessing. Not that this guy has a great record of being clear in articulating his reasons. I suppose a big wave could sweep California and even Connecticut to the GOP, but, it would have to be a big wave. I just think what this shows is that Boxer, who has won in the past has won re-election by 10 to 20 points is going to win by 5 points this time around. And Blumenthal who probabaly would've won by 30 points is going to win by about 10. Diminished margins are not something to sneeze at, especially with big name incumbents like Boxer and Blumenthal in very blue states. Democrats really lucked out by having this massacre occur during a year when they got to defend seats in blue territory: California, Hawaii, Oregon, Wasington, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, TWO f'ing seats in New York, etc.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-01 @ 17:37:16 prediction Map
But that's something that isn't mentioned. Dems will lose by my count 8 or 9 seats in the Senate, but that's actually better than what could've been. Dems should be thanking their lucky stars that this wasn't 2012 with Nelson, and Webb, and Tester and McCaskill all being up. They would've faced rough re-election contests this time around. And that's why the House looks so grim. Plus the GOP is coming from a low number of 41 in the Senate. They took a Senate clobbering in 2006 and 2008. I remember, I was there.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-01 @ 17:38:38 prediction Map
Connecticut, I just don't see tipping. California might. West Virginia might, and even Washington might.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 4 159 2T106
P 2010 Senate 30/37 22/37 52/74 70.3% pie 14 1 181T456
P 2010 Governor 29/37 16/37 45/74 60.8% pie 10 1 214T312
Aggregate Predictions 63/78 41/78 104/156 66.7% pie



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