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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:191

Prediction Map
MilesC56 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
MilesC56 Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-2-4-610313-6
Rep+2+4+60-1-110717+5
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133851
Republican232346
Independent123
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
673730
piepiepie

Analysis

This is it, folks!

I wish it could have turned out better.

Final Tallies:











REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS TODAY, I would like to send my deepest thanks to Speaker Pelosi and Leader Reid. Despite the anemic and dispassionate leadership of President Obama, both Pelosi and Reid have excelled in their respective capacities as legislative leaders; they were able to navigate the political seas to ultimately pass the most meaningful reforms in decades. Perhaps we will never again have a Speaker with the clout and efficiency of Pelosi or a Majority Leader with the guile and heft of Reid. Due to political backlash, which is due to factors largely out of their control, they both could very well be severely punished on election night. Pelosi stands to lose her majority, and she will thus relay her gavel over to an egocentric, chain-smoking, overtanned hack of a Congressman; Reid, on the other hand, stands to lose his Senate seat to one of the most radical candidates the GOP has ever put forth.
Whatever happens tonight, you both have my utmost revenrence and my deepest admiration. You have been the real political heroes of these last years.



Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 12:46:27 prediction Map


 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:07:43 prediction Map



 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:13:28 prediction Map
Senator Bennet,

Thank you for your efforts in behalf of the Public Option. Your leadership in the healthcare debate, specifically the Bennet Letter, has meant to the world to me and you have given me hope that one day, out healthcare system may be one of efficiency and affordability. Thank you for putting consumers over politics and special interests.
Whatever happens tonight, I am grateful for your courage and the Senate is a better palce for having you in it

THE BENNET LETTER

Dear Leader Reid:
We respectfully ask that you bring for a vote before the full Senate a public health insurance option under budget reconciliation rules.
There are four fundamental reasons why we support this approach – its potential for billions of dollars in cost savings; the growing need to increase competition and lower costs for the consumer; the history of using reconciliation for significant pieces of health care legislation; and the continued public support for a public option.
A Public Option Is an Important Tool for Restoring Fiscal Discipline.
As Democrats, we pledged that the Senate health care reform package would address skyrocketing health care costs and relieve overburdened American families and small businesses from annual double-digit health care cost increases. And that it would do so without adding a dime to the national debt.
The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined that the Senate health reform bill is actually better than deficit neutral. It would reduce the deficit by over $130 billion in the first ten years and up to $1 trillion in the first 20 years.
These cost savings are an important start. But a strong public option can be the centerpiece of an even better package of cost saving measures. CBO estimated that various public option proposals in the House save at least $25 billion. Even $1 billion in savings would qualify it for consideration under reconciliation.
Put simply, including a strong public option is one of the best, most fiscally responsible ways to reform our health insurance system.
A Public Option Would Provide Americans with a Low-Cost Alternative and Improve Market Competitiveness.
A strong public option would create better competition in our health insurance markets. Many Americans have no or little real choice of health insurance provider. Far too often, it’s “take it or leave it” for families and small businesses. This lack of competition drives up costs and leaves private health insurance companies with little incentive to provide quality customer service.
A recent Health Care for America Now report on private insurance companies found that the largest five for-profit health insurance providers made $12 billion in profits last year, yet they actually dropped 2.7 million people from coverage. Private insurance – by gouging the public even during a severe economic recession – has shown it cannot function in the public’s interest without a public alternative. Americans have nowhere to turn. That is not healthy market competition, and it is not good for the public.
If families or individuals like their current coverage through a private insurance company, then they can keep that coverage. And in some markets where consumers have many alternatives, a public option may be less necessary. But many local markets have broken down, with only one or two insurance providers available to consumers. Each and every health insurance market should have real choices for consumers.
There is a history of using reconciliation for significant pieces of health care legislation.
There is substantial Senate precedent for using reconciliation to enact important health care policies. The Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Medicare Advantage, and the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985 (COBRA), which actually contains the term ‘reconciliation’ in its title, were all enacted under reconciliation.
The American Enterprise Institute’s Norman Ornstein and Brookings’ Thomas Mann and Molly Reynolds jointly wrote, “Are Democrats making an egregious power grab by sidestepping the filibuster? Hardly.” They continued that the precedent for using reconciliation to enact major policy changes is “much more extensive . . . than Senate Republicans are willing to admit these days.”
There is strong public support for a public option, across party lines.
The overwhelming majority of Americans want a public option. The latest New York Times poll on this issue, in December, shows that despite the attacks of recent months Americans support the public option 59% to 29%. Support includes 80% of Democrats, 59% of Independents, and even 33% of Republicans.
Much of the public identifies a public option as the key component of health care reform -- and as the best thing we can do to stand up for regular people against big insurance companies. In fact, overall support for health care reform declined steadily as the public option was removed from reform legislation.
Although we strongly support the important reforms made by the Senate-passed health reform package, including a strong public option would improve both its substance and the public’s perception of it. The Senate has an obligation to reform our unworkable health insurance market -- both to reduce costs and to give consumers more choices. A strong public option is the best way to deliver on both of these goals, and we urge its consideration under reconciliation rules.
Respectfully,
Michael Bennet (D-CO), U.S. Senator
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), U.S. Senator
Jeff Merkley (D-OR), U.S. Senator
Sherrod Brown (D-OH), U.S. Senator

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:25:11 prediction Map
THANK YOU SENATOR BENNET!! GOOD LUCK!! WE'RE GONNA WIN THIS!!





 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 17:32:11 prediction Map
Reid is up by less then 7000 in early voting, nowhere near enough for him to win. Almost all of the early voting in Nevada is in Clark County which means most of the vote today will be from the rural areas. No offense but I think your house prediction is quite a ways off. I've enjoyed your predictions and hope to see you in two years, remember you'll get a lot of those house seats back in 2012 when it's not a wave election.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:21:46 prediction Map
Thanks John. I've enjoyed your company as well.

Well Nate Silver at 538.com has the House at 203-232. I gave the Dems 10 more wins than he did.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:37:10 prediction Map
FINAL CALLS:

AL:
Shelby*(R): 69%
Barnes(D): 31%

AK:
Murkowski*(W): 35%
Miller(R): 34%
McAdams(D): 32%

AZ
McCain(R)*: 59%
Glassman(D): 40%

AR
Boozman(R): 57%
Lincoln(D)*: 41%

CA
Boxer(D)*: 53%
Fiorina(R): 46%

CO
Bennet(D)*: 49%
Buck(R): 48.5%

CT
Blumenthal(D)^: 56%
McMahon(R): 44%

DE
Coons(D)^: 60%
O’Donnell(R): 39%

FL
Rubio(R)^: 46%
Crist(I): 33%
Meek(D): 21%

GA
Iaskson(R):60%
Thurmond(D):38%

HI
Inouye(D)*: 69%
Cavasso(R):29%

ID
Crapo(R)*: 74%
Sullivan(D): 25%

IL
Kirk(R): 47%
Giannoulias(D)^: 46%

IN
Coats(R): 59%
Ellsworth(D)^: 40%

IA
Grassley(R)*: 62%
Conlin(D): 37%

KS
Moran(R)^: 68%
Johnston(D): 30%

KY
Paul(R)^: 56%
Conway(D): 44%

LA
Vitter(R)*: 57%
Melancon(D): 42%

MD
Mikulski(D)*: 62%
Wargotz(R): 38%

MO
Blunt(R)^: 54%
Carnahan(D):45%

NV
Reid(D)*: 48%
Angle(R): 47.5%

NH
Ayotte(R)^:56%
Hodes(D): 43%

NY
Schumer(D)*: 65%
Townsend(R): 35%

NY Class I
Gillibrand(D)*: 59%
DioGuardi(R): 40%

NC
Burr(R)*: 56%
Marshall(D): 44%

ND
Hoeven(R): 72%
Potter(D)^: 27%

OH
Portman(R)^: 59%
Fisher(D): 41%

OK
Coburn(R)*: 72%
Rogers(D): 28%

OR
Wyden(D)*: 59%
Huffman(R): 41%

PA
Pat Toomey(R): 52%
Joe Sestak(D)^: 48%

SC
DeMint(R)*: 69%
Greene(D): 28%

SD
Thune(R)*: >95%
(uncontested)

UT
Lee(R)^: 63%
Granato(D): 37%

VT
Leahy(D)*: 68%
Britton(R): 30%

WA
Murray(D)*: 51%
Rossi(R): 49%

WA
Johnson(R):53%
Feingold(D)*: 46%

WV
Manchin(D)^: 52%
Raese(R): 47%






 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:41:48 prediction Map
Hope you're right!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 00:46:41 prediction Map
Good job Miles. You had a pretty solid prediction.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-04 @ 01:23:20 prediction Map
Even in the Senate, your party did pretty well CR.

The clean sweep of the midwest was pretty impressive.

Besides the coasts, the only state that the Dems won was CO...not good!!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 01:35:54 prediction Map
Very true. I'd have liked more of course but 47 seats is nothing to sneeze at. That puts us in a good place for 2012 when we could take back the Senate. For now, our decisive victory in the House is good enough. Plus our Senate filibuster has some real teeth behind it.

My native region the Midwest was very kind.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-04 @ 03:15:28 prediction Map
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Democrats lost Halter's seat!!!!!

 By: Olawakandi (D-IL) 2010-11-04 @ 07:13:11 prediction Map
And how can Malloy lose. I predicted him to lose but that was a stretch. Looks like most people were wrong about florida and Illinois. Quinn survived and Giannoulias didn't I am so glad that Quinn won.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-04 @ 13:58:07 prediction Map
Me too. My hat is off to Quinn; I didn't think he'd survive the GOP wave in the midwest. Looks like he'll be getting a full term!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-05 @ 00:50:59 prediction Map
He just barely squeaked by. Impressive but then again its Illinois and Chicago saved his bacon.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-05 @ 13:12:56 prediction Map
Congrats on getting every state right, Miles.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-05 @ 13:28:29 prediction Map
Thanks albaleman.

I was taking a risk with CO and NV, but they both pulled through in the end!

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 00:13:04 prediction Map
I know what you mean Miles. I took a risk on Washington and lost. But them's the breaks. The polling turned out to be less than helpful in some of the western contest but I'm proud to say that outside of four states I called the rest pretty much dead on.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 11:50:14 prediction Map
"AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Democrats lost Halter's seat!!!!!"

I'm not suprised. The GOP picked up a ton of Democratic seats down there.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 11:56:00 prediction Map
Crosspost:

When 'House Effects' Become 'Bias'

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-07 @ 00:19:59 prediction Map
Yes, there is a distinction between the HE and bias, but Rasmussen has pro-Republican HE and bias. Its indefensible.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 09:20:54 prediction Map
I know. And yet some still take their polls at face value.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-07 @ 11:19:01 prediction Map
From now on, I'm using a HE of R+5 for Rasmussen polls.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-07 @ 11:28:24 prediction Map
Data is data and should be taken at face value. If you believe that Rasmussen polling data is extremely flawed and the results are biased (thus making this method unreliable) then I suggest that you simply throw out his data point. House effects simply add on more bad math so its better to just do away with data that you feel is unreliable.

Just my two cents.

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-07 @ 19:02:52 prediction Map
Yeah, going forward, I might just exclude Rasmussen polls entirely from my aggregates.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 19:07:32 prediction Map
I will too, if at all possible.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 19:55:33 prediction Map
%^&#!!!!!!!!!!!

The Oakland Raiders scored a field goal and are sending the KC-Oakland game into overtime!!!!!

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-07 @ 19:57:55 prediction Map
The Saints won...I'm happy!

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 20:03:03 prediction Map
DA*M IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE RAIDERS WON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was almost always root for the Saints unless they're playing Seattle or KC...

New Orleans is a great town.

Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 20:09:46

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 18:42:57 prediction Map
Well the Vikes had a thrilling win yesterday - they scored two touchdowns in the last 4 minutes of regulation to tie it then kicked a field goal in OT to win it!

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 18:44:17

 By: MilesC56 (D-VA) 2010-11-11 @ 00:04:16 prediction Map
I'm gonna miss you, Guts Grayson.... :(((




 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 06:03:16 prediction Map
Congrats on some of the best predicting here. you also had a little bit of luck on your side in CO, NV... :) :)

but luck is part of it all.

Hey, I hear the former East German secret police is looking for new recruits. Maybe that's why they booked flights up to Alaska. I think Miller will be looking for a new job soon, for his position as nuisance is about to end.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-14 @ 08:58:19 prediction Map
lol

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 08:00:05 prediction Map
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 33/36 21/36 54/72 75.0% pie 37 0 138T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 21/36 51/72 70.8% pie 31 0 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 4 58 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 44/56 99/112 88.4% pie 61 0 146T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 25/33 57/66 86.4% pie 34 0 5T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 3 0 1T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 21/52 63/104 60.6% pie 30 - 27T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 29 66 37T
P 2010 Senate 37/37 30/37 67/74 90.5% pie 191 0 2T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 123 0 59T
Aggregate Predictions 279/304 199/304 478/608 78.6% pie



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