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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:203

Prediction Map
KS21 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
KS21 Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Tos7
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-2-4-610313-6
Rep+2+4+60-1-110717+5
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133851
Republican232346
Independent123
 pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
673730
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 07:41:28 prediction Map
Welcome to

KS21's
ELECTION NIGHT THREAD
May the best candidates win!


Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 07:48:13
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 09:33:57 prediction Map
Well I gotta say, this map is an interesting one. Reid and Bennet may yet pull it out!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 11:42:33 prediction Map
They might...! :)

The one race I'm still 100% unsure about is AK. I literally rolled dice to decide who I'd pick. Murkowski won.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 12:00:27 prediction Map
I hope the early voting numbers we've seen hold thorugh tonight. When John Ralston projected Reid to win, I decided to give it back to Reid.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 12:32:32 prediction Map
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 12:33:14 prediction Map
And just for convenience-
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 14:04:32 prediction Map
Ahh, good.

The first major senate race to watch will be WV. That will hopefully set the tone for the rest of the night.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 14:05:12 prediction Map
This is the last HOUR to enter in predictions!!! Its almost over already!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 14:54:16 prediction Map
Last hour? Geez.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 14:56:48 prediction Map
Here's hoping everything goes well. I hope my Colorado prediciton is correct, I'm only 55% confident about Bennet winning...
 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2010-11-02 @ 17:24:48 prediction Map
Yo. Look forward to a bit of discourse here - I'm going off to vote in Freudenthal's inevitable replacement in a couple hours. He will be missed as a governor. :(
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:26:49 prediction Map
Fruedenthal must be super popular if he can get elected in a state as red as WY. I respect him for that.

I wish he wasn't term-limited either!
 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2010-11-02 @ 17:36:45 prediction Map
Miles, man, super-popular doesn't even begin to describe it. He has a 90% approval rating.

As of July.

This year.
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 17:37:30 prediction Map
Colorado is extremely close, Reid is going to lose though. His vote total puts him less then 7000 votes ahead and almost all of the early voting comes from Clark County, the rural counties today will overwhelm him quickly. 51-47 Angle would be my guess at this point. I've lived here 17 years so you can consider me your inside man in Las Vegas.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:43:11 prediction Map
I find it hard to believe that either will get over 50%. But we'll see...
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 17:43:38 prediction Map
Alright guys, lock and load. I'm here for the duration. I went to vote at my precinct at about 1 PM and there was no line, no one even there.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:45:19 prediction Map
Nice. I have to go but I'll be back on within the next hour or so.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 17:47:01 prediction Map
Scratch that.

I'll be on for the rest of the night.
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 17:53:33 prediction Map
Angle up to 83.4 chance of winning
http://civicforumpac.com/fivethirtyeight-nevada-senate-forecast-sharron-angle-has-56-8-chance-of-winning/
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 17:54:22 prediction Map
That's up from only 56.8 chance of winning on Sept.22
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:17:58 prediction Map
I wonder what his chances were against Ensign going into the 1998 election... :)
 By: SvenssonRS (I-WY) 2010-11-02 @ 18:23:11 prediction Map
Higher. ;)
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:23:59 prediction Map
Coats is ahead 55-40, Paul ahead 55-44.

Less than 1% in in both states.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:26:00 prediction Map
http://sos.mo.gov/enrmaps/20101102/sw_map.asp?eid=300&oTypeID=12

Refreshes every 2 minutes.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:30:56 prediction Map
Coats is under 50 and Ellsworth behind by 4. Remember that in 2008 at around this phase in precint reporting, McCain was leading. : P
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:43:58 prediction Map
It looks like Kentucky may be won by a wider margin than Indiana. WOW.

However, several of the counties coming in in Indiana are in Ellsworth's district, while Conway's base of Louisville has not reported.

More to come.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:45:58 prediction Map
The depressing numbers from Florida Senate race are coming in in 15 minutes...

We'll all be on the edge of our seats watching the Gub. race.



Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 18:47:11
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 18:47:27 prediction Map
Exit Poll from Illinois:
Kirk leads 49-43
Kentucky Senate is starting to look like a blowout, this could be a long night for Dems
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:48:32 prediction Map
Are the results on Politico?!?
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:49:44 prediction Map
They are, Miles.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:50:47 prediction Map
The CRUCIAL first House race will be Ben Chandler's race....that will set the tone for the night.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 18:54:21 prediction Map
And right now according to my numbers Chandler's up 50.9-49.1
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:58:14 prediction Map
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Not much, but still a lead...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 18:59:20 prediction Map
Now he's up 556-44 with 3% in.

Not too shabby!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:00:12 prediction Map
And now he's up 56-44 accprdong to CNN.

btw, CNN has a customizable list of races that matter to you that will be displayed on a seperate list just for you.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:01:43 prediction Map
Baron Hill is behind by less than 1 point...

His district will be a good indicator too.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:02:39 prediction Map
Everyone has called the following-

GOP-

KY
IN
SC

DEM-

VT

TOO EARLY-

GA
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:03:05 prediction Map
I hope Hill wins. He's a great congressman.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:06:30 prediction Map
Hill is now down 53-42. SHIT!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:06:59 prediction Map
I'm gonna turn my attention to GA in the Gvoernor's race where one of my favorite candidates, Roy Barnes, is running.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:10:16 prediction Map
OMG-

John Lynch is only ahead by 6 votes!!!

Paul Hodes is ahead by 2 votes!!!!!

Oh, wait, never mind, only 12 votes have been counted. ; )
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:12:10 prediction Map
"Hill is now down 53-42"

^*&$
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:17:32 prediction Map
Chandler's up with 53% with 22% in.

I'm feeling good about this one, but I'm still nervous.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:18:52 prediction Map
John Yarmuth took the lead again with 52%.

Only about 3% in, but he was trailing. Good that he's back up.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:20:34 prediction Map
Good.

Crist is only down 1!!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:21:18 prediction Map
GO CHARLIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:22:09 prediction Map
KY called for Paul by 55.9-44.1.

I CALLED THAT!!!!

I predicted 56-44!!!!!!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:22:24 prediction Map
GO CHARLIE!

However, this won't hold for long.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:24:03 prediction Map
Kendrick Meek has 17%. I think he can win :))))))
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:25:01 prediction Map
Like I said, it won't hold long.

Scott leading 48-47.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:28:40 prediction Map
6% of Louisville reporting. This is where Conway will get his votes. It would be great if the other 94% came in now and Conway would be ahead.

Alas, this night is not what I hoped it would be a while back.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:29:26 prediction Map
No word on Guts Grayson in FL yet....
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:31:30 prediction Map
"Like I said, it won't hold long."

You're sure right about that...Rubio is approaching 50%!!!! He's at 48.6%!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:32:13 prediction Map
...make that 51.8%

Rubio has SURPASSED 50%

:(((
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:33:12 prediction Map
GUTS GRAYSON IS LOSING...


63-28!!!!!!!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:33:14 prediction Map
Ugh.

Now, MSNBC has called Ohio for Portman, Georgia, NC, OH GOV, and WV still too "early" to call.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:34:02 prediction Map
"GUTS GRAYSON IS LOSING...


63-28!!!!!!!!!!"

Sorry, but

I'm soooooooo happy. His tactics are just plain dirty...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:35:16 prediction Map
Kuster is losing in NH.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:35:32 prediction Map
With 4% in, Perriello isn't looking terrible....he's down 52-46.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:36:50 prediction Map
I hope Perriello wins, but it's not likely...

Yarmuth, Chandler ahead.

Hill, Donelley behind.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:37:45 prediction Map
Shaheen is LEADING Haley 62-37!!!


...with 1% in :))))
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:39:53 prediction Map
And only one county. I just saw that and my eyes nearly fell out.

Scott leading 50-47 with 10% in...

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 19:41:17
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:43:27 prediction Map
Chandler and Yarmuth look good with 60% in...

Chandler has 53%

Yarmuth has 54%
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:43:28 prediction Map
Rubio over 50...

Burr leading 70-27 (with only rural, GOP counties in)...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:45:13 prediction Map
With only rural Jackson county, Strickland trails 63-37.

Its okay.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 19:46:45
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:47:16 prediction Map
I hope so.

What the?

Sheheen is STILL ahead!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:47:49 prediction Map
John Spratt is ahead 53-46.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:48:47 prediction Map
Strickland is ahead, lol, 62-36 with Mahoning county coming in.

Sheheen is EXPANDING his lead. Unbelievable.

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 19:52:30
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:52:54 prediction Map
Shaheen seems to be holding up well.

Maybe SC is too racist to elect an Indian...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:55:03 prediction Map
I hate to say it, but if this continues with a Sheheen lead, that will be the reason.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:55:05 prediction Map
Shaheen is actually winning the RURAL counties.

He's still holding Haley off 52-47.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 19:56:19 prediction Map
Lee Fisher is AHEAD 49-48!!

...And they've already called it for Portman!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 19:57:44 prediction Map
That's because we haven't heard from Cincinatti and Franklin County.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:00:12 prediction Map
FL is shaping up to be a 50-30-20 split.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:02:04 prediction Map
With 6% in Strickland is up 55-41. However, he's only winning Cleveland county by 58-38.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:03:26 prediction Map
FL called for Rubio

:((((((((
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:15:03 prediction Map
: (

And Blunt is leading 66-27. However, only the backward areas reporting.
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 20:21:57 prediction Map
Blumenthal has won in CT.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:23:39 prediction Map
NC called for Burr!! :(((
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:24:02 prediction Map
Mike Oliverio is ahead!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:24:58 prediction Map
Joe Sestak with 99%.

...with only 1000 votes from Philly!!

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 20:25:11
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:25:50 prediction Map
Not suprising.

Sestak is leading 99-1!!

Guess where the votes are coming from...

And Askins is being crushed, but the Dixicrat wall in the east has not come in...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:27:14 prediction Map
Manchin is up 55-42 with 10% in...

GO JOE!!!!

I hope Manchin carries Oliverio with him!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:27:31 prediction Map
I'm glad that Oliverio is ahead.
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 20:27:36 prediction Map
Manchin headquarters are wild right now.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:29:09 prediction Map
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:30:51 prediction Map
MSNBC projects Boozman...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:33:51 prediction Map
Oh, no...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:34:06 prediction Map
AR and NH called for Beebe and Lynch.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:34:44 prediction Map
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WV CALLED FOR MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:37:09 prediction Map
I'm glad for Joe.

Blanche lost...

I knew it was coming, but it's still is going to be difficult...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:37:29 prediction Map
SENATOR BYRD WOULD BE PROUD!!!!
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 20:38:20 prediction Map
So O'Donnell loses, so we can finally put that one to rest
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:40:01 prediction Map
Yep.

Coons is standing at 65%.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:43:21 prediction Map
lol

Hey, are any of you watching MSNBC? Lawrence O'Donnell (I can't believe this) defended Blanche against Ed "perfectionist liberal" Schultz.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:45:03 prediction Map
Yeah, I am.

Schultz blamed Lincoln's loss on Halter.

You could tell Schultz really though Halter should be running instead of Lincoln....
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:46:26 prediction Map
They all were attacking Manchin too.

I didn't much like that either.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:47:20 prediction Map
I disagree. I argue that Blanche would have won tonight had it not been for all that $^%&#*% out-of-state money pumping millions to attack her.

It's kinda hard to come back from that.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:48:39 prediction Map
Giannoulias at...70%!!!!!


...with Cook county. LOL
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:49:35 prediction Map
lol on 70%.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:50:20 prediction Map
With 20% in Strickland leads 50-46.

KEEP IT UP TED!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:51:49 prediction Map
GO TED!!!!

-----

HA!!!!

ALAN GRAYSON HAS LOST!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:52:32 prediction Map
DAMN IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

PERRIELLO AND GRAYSON JUST LOST THEIR SEATS!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:54:21 prediction Map
Good news from NC...

Kissell, McIntyre and Ethridge are all ahead.

In WV, Oliverio is clinging onto a 2-point lead.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:54:28 prediction Map
Periello- : (

Grayson- : )
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:54:58 prediction Map
Skelton and Hartzler TIED at 48%....
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 20:58:39 prediction Map
Ugh. C'mon, Ike!

Carnahan is getting crushed, but still no votes from Jeff City, St. Louis (county and city), or KC inside the city limits.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 20:59:14 prediction Map
With WV out of play, Nate SIlver says the GOP Senate takeover chance now stands at 6%.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 21:00:11 prediction Map
: )))))))))

YES!

THE SENATE STAYS DEMOCRATIC!
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 21:01:12 prediction Map
Rubio is winning with over 50%, that's very convincing.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:01:31 prediction Map
But...the House takeover chance is up.

It went from 74% to 89%!!!

But we already knew the House was gone.
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 21:02:58 prediction Map
Everything is playing out the way we have seen. Question now is what happens in the WEST
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:04:42 prediction Map
Yep.

In a few minutes, we'll learn the fate of the Dakota Democrats...
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-02 @ 21:05:09 prediction Map
Baron Hill lost in IN9. BIG!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 21:05:37 prediction Map
Very true. The GOP has to now take Nevada, California, AND Washington.

Forget it, Republicans.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 21:09:11 prediction Map
RIP Baron Hill.

GO STEPHANIE AND EARL!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:09:46 prediction Map
Yep, I was just about to announce Baron Hill.

Ben Chandler is ahead by less than 1000 votes.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:12:48 prediction Map
TX CALLED FOR GOVERNOR 39....

Perry-57%
White-41%

with 52% in.

Thats a damn shame.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 21:15:39 prediction Map
I agree.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:16:01 prediction Map
H-Sandlin up 48-46.

Pomeroy tied 50-50.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:18:14 prediction Map
With 5% in...

Bennet up 13 points at 55-42!!!!

GO MICHAEL!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:37:14 prediction Map
Winning:

Kissel, Ethridge, McIntyre, Taylor, H-Sandlin


Losing:

Skelton, Spratt, Pomeroy, Oliverio
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 21:43:48 prediction Map
C'mon, Ike and Michael!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:46:52 prediction Map
Rubio and Scott are both standing at 51%.

...coincidence!??
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:47:23 prediction Map
I'm so sorry about MO, KS.



Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 21:48:04
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 21:48:28 prediction Map
Robin is losing Boone county.

AAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!

BLUNT DECLARED WINNER!!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:49:15 prediction Map
Gillibrand is doing better than Schumer!!!


LOL
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:49:38 prediction Map
McCaskill is on MSNBC.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 21:54:56 prediction Map
Good news:

H-Sandlin expanded her lead :)

Good news:

OK called for Fallin :(
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 22:00:46 prediction Map
JARI!!!!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 22:14:19 prediction Map
SENATE

GOP-

MO
WI
ND
SD
IN
KY
OH
NH
KS
OK
LA
AL
SC
NC
GA
FL

DEM-

NY
NYS
CT
MD
WV
DE

TOO CLOSE-

IL (DEM)
PA (DEM)
AR (GOP)
CO (DEM)
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 22:23:18 prediction Map
HUH????

SOLOMON ORITZ DOWN IN SOUTH TEXAS IS

LOSING!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:25:30 prediction Map
I'm surprised that Sestak is doing so well.

Lets hope that PA voters saw through Toomey's disguise!!!

GO JOE!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 22:27:51 prediction Map
GO JOE!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:40:43 prediction Map
Goodbye, Russ.

Please run in 2012!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 22:47:24 prediction Map
CO CALLED FOR HICK!!!

HICK-53%
TANCREDO-36%
MAES-9%
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 22:57:21 prediction Map
GO HICK!

GO MICHAEL!

GO BLANCHE! ( #$&% you, Boozman)

Last Edit: 2010-11-02 @ 22:58:16
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-02 @ 23:07:50 prediction Map
Bennet still leading...
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 23:13:56 prediction Map
Holy $#%!, Reps are going to win governorships in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida (and maybe Illinois!). That will be huge in 2012 for the Presidential race.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 23:16:08 prediction Map
...you just now realized this!!?
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 23:22:08 prediction Map
I'm at work so i haven't been able to watch for more then a minute :p
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 23:24:28 prediction Map
Pomeroy and Spratt are gone.
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 23:28:52 prediction Map
New Mexico and Nevada are going Rep for Governor, maybe even Vermont. The big story tonight will be the Governorships or at least it should be.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 23:39:17 prediction Map
Gene Taylor is gone :(
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 23:40:49 prediction Map
Oregon Governorship is close now too, Dudley up 1,000 votes with 58% reporting
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-02 @ 23:48:57 prediction Map
CA CALLED FOR BOXER!!!!!!!!!
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-02 @ 23:56:47 prediction Map
The apocolypse scenario for Democrats was avoided, still a very good night for Reps though even if they lose Colorado and Washington.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 00:13:04 prediction Map
Skelton is gone.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:14:42 prediction Map
"Gene Taylor is gone :("

Thank goodness. Good riddance to you Gene.

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 00:15:19
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 00:14:48 prediction Map
IL called for Kirk.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:16:23 prediction Map
I'm on the CBS Chicago site and they haven't called it yet - suprising since he leads by 2 points with 97% reporting.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:18:28 prediction Map
They just called it. IL falls.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:20:23 prediction Map
But the governor's race is extremely tight - Quinn leads by less than 9,000 votes with 96% reporting.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 00:26:56 prediction Map
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Quinn.

Strickland has fallen...
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:30:14 prediction Map
Not a suprise, though it is suprising he lasted this long.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:33:42 prediction Map
Scott v. Sink is very close, Scott leads BUT most of the ballots left to count are from Sink-friendly Palm Beach County.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 00:38:41 prediction Map
HARRY REID WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-03 @ 00:47:32 prediction Map
You might be one Senate seat away from completely right Miles. Colorado being the only one. Good job
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-03 @ 00:49:30 prediction Map
Victory in the House!!!!!!!!!!

47 Senate seats, maybe 48.

What a great night.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 00:51:54 prediction Map
"HARRY REID WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

I don't think he's won yet. It's only 30% reporting. That said, he'll win with these types of numbers. That unexpected margin out of Washoe county is just too much for Angle to overcome.

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 00:57:43
 By: JohnLV (O-NV) 2010-11-03 @ 00:57:21 prediction Map
All those voting machines that switched votes and some that only listed Reid for Senator helped out big ;)
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:00:44 prediction Map
There is no evidence to support that JohnLV. Still though, those numbers do look fishy to me. His margin out of Clark county does not line up with his margin out of Washoe county. But it probably has more to do with the fact there's only 30% reporting than anything else.

Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 01:01:45
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-03 @ 01:04:21 prediction Map
Its a shame that Reid won reelection. But I always said we should have gone with Sue Lowden. Oh well, Reid will make a great face for Senate Democrats.

I'm just happy to see Toomey, Rubio, Paul, Johnson, and others heading for DC. Oh and it was cool to pick up the president's old senate seat :)
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 01:13:52 prediction Map
Murkowski opens with 39%!!!!
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 01:40:51 prediction Map
It appears Quinn will probably win. He leads by 1% with 98% reporting.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 01:44:21 prediction Map
Amazing.

The machine pulled through for Quinn but not Giannoulias.

I thought if 1 Democratic governor survived in the midwest it would be Strickland...

GO PAT!!
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-03 @ 02:01:00 prediction Map
What a crazy election cycle. Shows just how mad and frustrated the American people truly are.

Well I'm beat. It's been a long day and I'm going to turn in. Depending on my schedule I'll post election analysis up on my map in a couple of days.

Good night all!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 04:14:45 prediction Map
At 3:14 AM....

Minnick and Titus have lost.

So much for Minnick's 60-30 lead.

Ben Chandler is ahead by 600 votes.

Grijalva, Giffords and Bishop hanging on by about 2 points apiece.

Oberstar and Koster still trailing.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 04:17:39 prediction Map
CO Senate will likely be headed toward a recount.

Bennet trails by less than 9,000 votes.

Murray ahead 14,000 with some of King County yet to report.

Rick Scott up by 1 and Pat Quinn up by .3 .
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 07:37:23 prediction Map
I think Patty has this in the bag now.

Colorado WILL go to a recount, and expecta HUGE court battle in Alaska.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 07:53:51 prediction Map
And if every candidatee currently ahead ends up winning, Miles and I will have correctly projected every state.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 07:59:45 prediction Map
*Sigh*
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 08:06:08 prediction Map
CALLS AT THIS HOUR-

GOP PICKUPS-

AR
IN
IL
WI
PA
ND

GOP HOLDS-

SD
NH
IA
MO
KS
OK
LA
GA
FL
AL
SC
NC
AZ
UT
ID

DEM HOLDS-

WA
OR
CA
NV
NY
NYS
WV
MD
DE
VT
CT

RECOUNT OR DEM HOLD-

CO

COURT BATTLE OR IND HOLD-

AK
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 09:33:07 prediction Map
I can't believe how big the GOP wave was in the House.

It really was "whack-a-mole" season for Dems.

I can't believe that Obertstar and Minninck lost their seats.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 09:37:11 prediction Map
With 87.7 % in, Bennet is clinging to a 7000 vote lead. He could be in a worse position :)

With 98.6% in AK the "Write-ins" have 41% to Miller's 34%. Hopefully Murkowski will have a clear enough plurality to avoid much drama.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 11:23:49 prediction Map
The Denver Post has declared Bennet the winner.


"Bennet wins in Senate race"

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_16511547
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 12:10:50 prediction Map
FL called for Rick Scott.

Thats what the FL Dems get for screwing over Crist!!

...wasn't the entire reason Meek stayed in was to make sure Alex Sink won!?

Florida Democrats are the worst Democrats.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-03 @ 14:53:21 prediction Map
"The Denver Post has declared Bennet the winner."

:)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 15:21:23 prediction Map
GO MICHAEL!

On to Alaska and Washington!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 15:24:32 prediction Map
KS...We called NV and CO!!

If we were in the same room I'd be high-fiving and hugging you!!

I'm so happy Bennet is gonna pull through!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 15:25:44 prediction Map
I'm kinda glad Rick Scott won...

I was mad at Sink because she insisted that Meek stay in.

Thats what the FL Dems get for f*cking over Crist!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 16:14:08 prediction Map
I know, Miles!!!!!

It looks like we got every state right!!!!!!

I'm so happy we have Reid and Bennet as opposed to Buck and Angle!!!!!!!!

This is fantastic!!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 17:44:07 prediction Map
CO OFFICIALLY CALLED FOR BENNET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 17:45:01 prediction Map
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 17:46:32 prediction Map
MICHAEL BENNET- 47.7%
Ken Buck- 46.8%
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 18:25:17 prediction Map
YYYYYEEEEESSSSSSS!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 18:31:40 prediction Map
I'm pretty sure Murkowski will have AK locked up.

I'm kinda worried about Murray now.

I know a lot of King county still has yet to be counted, but its looking uncomfortably close.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 18:49:02 prediction Map
It's uncomfortably close, for now. This is King County we're talking about, lol...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 18:56:55 prediction Map
Crosspost:

Now lets take out the trash!

Lets have a look at the lies of the Republican hack Scott Rasmussen.



Chart Key:

-A state highlighted in yellow means that Rasmussen predicted the wrong winner.

-The House Effects highlighted in gray are outside of the 4.5% margin of error.

Senate



Gubernatorial




Last Edit: 2010-11-03 @ 19:57:53
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 19:50:29 prediction Map
Fantastic, Miles. I was thinking about doing something similar myself...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 19:52:07 prediction Map
I'll have analysis up by tomorrow.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 19:52:38 prediction Map
Rasmussen didn't do very well this year...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-03 @ 20:07:04 prediction Map
With 67% in Murray has barely expanded her lead

Murray-50.8%
Rossi-49.2%

And we still have to count 40% of King county!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 21:34:38 prediction Map
This is fantastic. Murray cannot lose at this point.

HOWEVER, there is a facinating House race up in N. WA, WA-2, where Rick Larsen is leading by .2%. Snohomish County ballots will be counted at 9 PM Central. Larsen's opponent, John Koster, is a commisioner in Snohomish Cty., which should make these returns very interesting considering the curent margin is Larsen +400 votes.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-03 @ 21:57:52 prediction Map
Well, we have the Snohomish ballots and now Larsen leads by 500.

Another 2% in in King County, another swing towards Senator Murray, this swing moving things in her favor by 0.04% .
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 00:24:05 prediction Map
Well I don't know how Washington will turn out. I'm hopeful for a surprise for Rossi but I feel Murray will win. We shall see.

But then again since I too miscalled four states I guess I'm trash just like Rasmussen.

Anyway, we had a great night in the House and in the state government races. The Senate fell shorter than I had hoped but picking up 6 isn't bad considering were we came from. With Lisa caucusing as a Republican (which she said she would) that gives us 47 seats. Our senate caucus now has some teeth.

Very pleased overall :)))))
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 00:59:33 prediction Map
"But then again since I too miscalled four states I guess I'm trash just like Rasmussen."

Thats different. Its his JOB to correctly predict the races, but he's too biased to do his job.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 01:03:12 prediction Map
Sorry, I forgot the lol behind that. No offense meant.

Still, a lot of the pollsters got some states wrong, like Nevada. In any case the polls did a pretty fair job overall. Your prediction was very good Miles, congratulations and spot on.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 01:03:21 prediction Map
Politico just called OR for Kitzhaber!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 01:06:48 prediction Map
Thanks CR.

I thought I'd go out on a limb and call NV and CO for the Dems...looks like it paid off!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 01:10:24 prediction Map
I just wish I had NV at D>50%...that would have been soo sweet!!

I honestly wasn't expecting Reid or Angle to break 50 though.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-04 @ 01:34:01 prediction Map
Colorado was razon thin and was a true tossup. The governor's race probably had coattails. Nevada surprised me. But that's the will of the people. I think Lowden and Norton would have been better candidates than Angle and Buck but that's just the way it goes.

We still got Rubio, Toomey, Johnson, Paul, and many others.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 01:46:40 prediction Map
The tea party pretty much gave CO and NV (and DE) to the Dems.

Harry Reid was trailing Tarkanian 54-39 in a hypothetical match-up!!

I thought that Sestak was going to hang on at first, but he didn't win enough in Philly. The Philly Machine never warmed up to him and that cost him against Toomey.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 15:44:08 prediction Map
I'm pretty sure Murray is gonna pull this out. King County is KILLING Rossi.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-04 @ 17:25:24 prediction Map
Yeah I agree. He's falling into the same trap he has before, doing pretty well elsewhere but getting destroyed in King County.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-04 @ 19:16:23 prediction Map
King County is almost impossible to overcome for a Republican.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 22:22:35 prediction Map
WASHINGTON WAS JUST CALLED FOR MURRAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-04 @ 23:08:40 prediction Map
We all knew it was coming...

Congratulations, Senator Murray. Keep fighting for common sense values in D.C.!
 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-04 @ 23:26:37 prediction Map
I must say KS and Miles...I'm VERY impressed with your senate predictions!!! Good job!
 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-04 @ 23:28:47 prediction Map
By the way, did you all see that Buerkle pulled ahead of Maffei at the very end in NY? Make that 6 pickups for the GOP in New York, 5 in Pennsylvania and 5 in Ohio...crazy!
 By: colin (R-ON) 2010-11-04 @ 23:30:50 prediction Map
4 in Florida and 4 in Illinois as well. Illinois surprised me. I don't think anyone was predicting the GOP would hold Kirk's district AND Melissa Bean lost too!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-04 @ 23:40:23 prediction Map
The Rustbelt was toxic territory for Dems this year. I was expecting heavy loses there. Between PA,OH,IN,IL,MI and WI, we lost more than 20 House seats and 3 Senate seats. The GOP did very well there.

I really have to say, I'm very proud of Pat Quinn; he was the ONLY Democratic gubernatorial candidate to survive the GOP wave in the Rustbelt. He has serious bragging rights!
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-05 @ 01:26:27 prediction Map
Thought Murray would win. Shame that Seattle overwhelms the rest of the state. I'm glad the race was at least close. No shame in a well fought contest.

You know the Tea Party didn't just give the Democrats Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware. First off Delaware was a deep blue state and new models based on the results show that Castle may not have won there either. But in both Nevada and Delaware the establishment GOP was just awful. They didn't like our outsider candidates and turned on them. There was no financial support for Sharron when she came out of the primary broke. That gave Reid a key 6 weeks to paint a very negative picture of her. Hell state GOP officials endorsed Reid and killed some of the Republican support that Angle would normally have gotten.

We saw that every where too. No real establishment support from the likes of Graham or Hatch or Lott or Castle. Some didn't even endorse our candidates. Lowden was beating Reid but he gunned her down with negative ads to the point were she couldn't even make it out of the primary. Same for Tarkanian. Then he turned on Angle once it was over. In Colorado I think Buck ran a sloppy campaign. He's a good guy but I think that in the end the other conservative in the race, Jan Norton, would have been a stronger candidate. I hope we see her again. But the governor's race didn't exactly help much either. Shame.

Party unity is important. Compare Nevada, Colorado, and Delaware with New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 50 seat would have been great but 47 is not too shabby either.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-05 @ 01:37:08 prediction Map
Cross Post:

Meet the New Republicans!

North Dakota

Senator John Hoeven
Born: March 13, 1957 (Age 53) in Bismarck, North Dakota
Spouse: Mikey Hoeven
Education: Graduate of Dartmouth College (AB) and Northwestern University (MBA)
Religion: Roman Catholic
Pervious Occupations: Banker, Governor of North Dakota
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: Hoeven is a fiscal hawk and socially conservative though he does take some moderate positions on issues such as education and the long-term usage of alternative fuels (however in the short-term he believes more oil drilling is necessary). He is currently the longest serving governor in the United States as well as the most popular governor as of January 2010. Under his leadership North Dakota has enjoyed economic prosperity and has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country (the state has gained nearly 40,000 jobs since Hoeven became governor).

Indiana

Senator Dan Coats
Born: May 16, 1943 (Age 67) in Jackson, Michigan
Spouse: Marsha Coats
Education: Graduate of Wheaton College and the University of Indiana-Indianapolis
Religion: Presbyterian
Pervious Occupations: United States Army, businessman, Congressman (IN-4), Indiana Senator, Ambassador to Germany
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Establishment Republican Candidate
General Info: Dan Coats is a skilled politician with decades of experience in GOP policy making. He describes himself as a conservative concerned with limiting government, balancing the budget, lowering taxes, and dedicated to a strong national defense. He is pro-life (gaining the endorsement of many pro-life organizations such as the National Right to Life Committee and Susan B Anthony List) and favors repeal of the current healthcare law. He will now be serving in the seat that he vacated in 1998 to retiring Senator Evan Bayh.

Arkansas

Senator John Boozman
Born: December 10, 1950 (Age 60) in Fort Smith, Arkansas
Spouse: Kathy Boozman
Education: Graduate of the University of Arkansas and the Southern College of Optometry
Religion: Baptist
Pervious Occupations: Rancher, Optometrist, Congressman (AR-3)
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: In Congress Representative Boozman has voted against the healthcare law, cap and trade legislation, for numerous tax credits, improved FDA regulations concerning eye health issues, educational reform (mostly via tax credits), and worked on bills showing Arkansas’ contributions to westward expansion. Prior to being elected to congress he served as a member of the school board for one of Arkansas’ largest school districts. Boozman is only the second Republican elected to the US Senate since Reconstruction.

New Hampshire

Senator Kelly Ayotte
Born: June 27, 1968 (Age 42) in Nashua, New Hampshire
Spouse: Joseph Daley
Education: Graduate of Pennsylvania State University (BA) and Villanova University School of Law (JD)
Religion: Christian, Affiliation Unknown
Pervious Occupations: Lawyer, Legal Council, Deputy Attorney General, Attorney General of New Hampshire
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: Ayotte is a typical conservative Republican and was recruited by the National Republican Party to run for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Judd Gregg. She is pro-life, opposed to gay marriage/adoption, favors repeal of the healthcare law, wants stricter controls on illegal immigration, favors a balance budget amendment, favors term limits (vowing to serve only two terms in office), opposes cap and trade, oppose the financial regulation bill, favors lowering taxes, favors spending cuts, is open to entitlement reform , and backs gun rights. Ayotte has also stated that she would have voted to confirm Justice Sotomayor but not Elana Kagan. She is also reported to favor a timeline for withdrawal in Afghanistan. During the primary Kelly was considered an establishment backed candidate but did receive the endorsement of Tea Party favorite Sarah Palin.

Ohio

Senator Rob Portman
Born: December 19, 1955 (Age 54) in Cincinnati, Ohio
Spouse: Jane Portman
Education: Graduate of Dartmouth College and the University of Michigan Law School
Religion: Methodist
Previous Occupations: Lawyer, Congressman (OH-2), US Trade Representative, Director of the Office of Management and Budget
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: Rob Portman is the traditional Republican candidate. A fiscal hawk with a reputation for being able to work well with all his colleagues, he comes from a background in which his father ran a small business. He favors free trade and during his time in the House he worked on bills that lowered taxes, sought to reform the IRS, cub unfunded mandates, and in general provide a more business friendly environment. While an attorney by profession Portman also has a BA in anthropology which he earned at Dartmouth College. Since his time working for the Bush Administration during its second term, Portman has been the author of two books and was at one time considered as a vice presidential running mate for Senator John McCain.

Kentucky

Senator Rand Paul
Born: January 7, 1963 (Age 47) in Pittsburg, Pennsylvania
Spouse: Kelley Paul
Education: Graduate of Baylor University, Duke University, Georgia Baptist Medical Center, and Duke University Medical Center
Religion: Presbyterian
Pervious Occupations: Ophthalmologist
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Tea Party Candidate
General Info: Rand Paul has never held a political office prior to his election to the US Senate. He owns and runs a private ophthalmologist practice in Bowling Green, Kentucky. He is also the founder of many organizations such as the National Board of Ophthalmology, Kentucky Taxpayers United, and the Southern Kentucky Lions Eye Clinic to help provide eye exams and surgery to those who could not afford to pay. Politically, Paul is conservative on many issues – extremely pro-life, supporters a balance budget amendment, opposes gun control, supports low taxes, less spending, smaller government, and repeal of the healthcare law. However, on other issues Paul has more of a libertarian tilt in his support of legalizing marijuana, opposition to the Patriot Act, and says he would have voted against the invasion of Iraq.

Missouri

Senator Roy Blunt
Born: January 10, 1950 (Age 60) in Niangua, Missouri
Spouse: Abigail Blunt
Education: Graduate of Southwest Baptist University and Southwest Missouri State University
Religion: Baptist
Pervious Occupations: Green County Clerk, Missouri Secretary of State, President of Southwest Baptist University, Congressman (MO-7)
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: Roy Blunt is no stranger to GOP politics and is essentially the patriarch of the Republican Party’s political dynasty in Missouri. He was the first Republican elected to the post of Secretary of State for Missouri since 1945 and has served as the interim Republican House Majority leader from 2005 to 2006. His son, Matt Blunt, is a former governor of the state and Roy has represented the most conservative district in Missouri since 1996. His service in key leadership positions within the House GOP makes Roy a very skilled politician and his views are generally conservative on all matters whether fiscal, social, or foreign policy.

Kansas

Senator Jerry Moran
Born: May 29, 1954 (Age 56) in Great Bend, Kansas
Spouse: Robba Moran
Education: Graduate of the University of Kansas
Religion: Methodist
Pervious Occupations: Attorney, Bank Executive, College Professor, Kansas State Senator, Congressman (KS-1)
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: Jerry Moran is the standard conservative Republican candidate from a conservative state such as Kansas. He is pro-life, pro-gun, pro-business, for low taxes, less spending, opposes cap and trade, voted against the healthcare law, and favors smaller government. His district, the big first, is the largest in the state and encompasses 69 counties. Moran volunteers with several organizations including the Eisenhower Foundation, Boy Scouts of America, the Special Olympics, and the Board of Trustees of the Fort Hays State University Endowment Association. Because of his conservative positions he is forgiven for being a Jayhawker.

Utah

Senator Mike Lee
Born: June 4, 1971 (Age 39) in Mesa Arizona
Spouse: Sharron Lee
Education: Graduate of Brigham Young University
Religion: Mormon
Pervious Occupations: Lawyer
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Tea Party Candidate
General Info: Mike Lee gained fame in the party after ousting sitting US Senator Bob Bennett, the first in a long line of Tea Party primary victories. Most of his career has centered around his legal profession and he has clerked for both Dee Benson and Samuel Alito. He is a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints of Jesus Christ, the J Reuben Law Society, the Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies, and the BYU alumni board. Politically he is a solid conservative.

Florida

Senator Marco Rubio
Born: May 28, 1971 (Age 39) in Miami, Florida
Spouse: Jeanette Rubio
Education: Graduate of University of Florida and University of Miami
Religion: Roman Catholic
Pervious Occupations: Lawyer, City Commissioner for West Miami, Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Tea Party Candidate
General Info: Marco Rubio is the son of Cuban exiles. His parents were blue collar workers and his family is fluent in Spanish. While gaining his law degree, Rubio interned for Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. He championed a major overhaul of the Florida tax code during his time in the Florida House of Representatives and has worked to limit the size of government. He was one of the keynote speakers at the 2010 CPAC meeting in Washington DC. Initially behind in the GOP primary to sitting Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Rubio steadily gained steam until Crist dropped out of the primary to run as an independent. His election makes him the most prominent Republican of Hispanic background in Washington DC.

Pennsylvania

Senator Pat Toomey
Born: November 17, 1961 (Age 48) in Providence, Rhode Island
Spouse: Kris Toomey
Education: Graduate of Harvard University
Religion: Roman Catholic
Pervious Occupations: Businessman, Congressman (PA-15)
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Mix – Traditional Conservative and Tea Party
General Info: After graduating from Harvard, Pat Toomey worked for a variety of businesses that dealt mostly with currency exchange rates, interest rates, and so on. He later opened a restaurant with his two younger brothers in Allentown, Pennsylvania. In 1994 he served in Allentown’s Government Studies Commission where he helped secure the need for a super majority vote in order to raise taxes. In 1998 Toomey ran for the open seat in Pennsylvania’s 15th district. He pledged to serve only three terms and did so, leaving the House at the end of 2002. He failed in his first attempted to primary sitting US Senator Arlen Specter in 2004 after which he became president of the Club for Growth in 2005. His political positions are conservative across the board with a 97% rating from the American Conservative Union.

Wisconsin

Senator Ron Johnson
Born: April 8, 1955 (Age 55) in Mankato, Minnesota
Spouse: Jane Johnson
Education: Graduate of the University of Minnesota
Religion: Lutheran
Pervious Occupations: Accountant, Businessman
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Tea Party Candidate
General Info: Ron Johnson has never served in political office before. He has spent his entire life in the private sector and started the polyester and plastics manufacturing company PACUR with his brother-in-law. Johnson mostly self funded his own campaign in taking down liberal lion Russ Feingold. Politically Ron’s positions are pretty much conservative – against cap and trade, opposed to federal bailouts, favors low taxes, less regulation, favors repeal of the healthcare law, pro-life, and pro-drilling. Interviewed in the New York Times Johnson said he is proud to be associated with the Tea Party movement.

Illinois

Senator Mark Kirk
Born: September 15, 1959 (Age 51) in Champaign, Illinois
Spouse: Single, divorced
Education: Graduate of Cornell University London School of Economics and Georgetown University Law Center
Religion: United Church of Christ
Pervious Occupations: Intelligence Officer in Naval Reserves, Congressional Staffer, Special Assistant to the Assistant Secretary of State, Attorney, Congressman (IL-10)
ConservRep’s GOP Classification: Traditional Republican Candidate
General Info: Congressman Mark Kirk is a typical GOP candidate to run in a traditionally Democratic state. He is a social moderate to liberal with a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood, a grade of A by the NEA, and a grade of F by the NRA. Fiscally he is viewed highly by the Chamber of Commerce but has a lukewarm standing with the Club for Growth, the National Taxpayer’s Union, and the American Conservative Union. Initially a supporter of cap and trade, Kirk has since changed his stance sighting that the bill would be harmful to Illinois as a whole. He voted against the both the stimulus bill and the healthcare law. Throughout his senatorial campaign he has pledge to work to reduce spending and the size of government.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-05 @ 02:20:57 prediction Map
"Lowden was beating Reid but he gunned her down with negative ads to the point were she couldn't even make it out of the primary. Same for Tarkanian."

In PPP's last NV poll, it showed Tarkanian hypothetically leading Reid 54-39. Lowden would have lost against Reid. Tarkanian was the best choice.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-05 @ 02:25:00 prediction Map
I'd classify Kirk as more of a liberal Republican candidate.

On the whole, thats a nice introduction to the GOP class of 2010!!

You forgot to mention under Dan Coats that he was a lobbyist and up until last year, he didn't even LIVE in the state he will be representing!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-05 @ 07:50:15 prediction Map
Thanks, colin. I am amazed that so many Democrats lost, but one of the ones that did survive was Bill Owens, who should have been swept away be the tide.

CR- Nice job with the list. With the exceptions of Moran and Kirk, I'm not a fan of any of them, especially the ones rom Missouri and Arkansas.
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-05 @ 11:37:42 prediction Map
I must also give credit to Miles and KS on their Senate calls. But of course, they changed Missouri and Arkansas. Carnahan lost by 13 points, Lincoln lost by 21. My first post on this thread was that Colorado and Nevada could go either way. No doubt in my mind that Nevada and Colorado were lost because of Tea Party candidates Angle and Buck. Nevada and Colorado were thought to be top GOP pickup opportunities. Tea Party won elsewhere though.
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2010-11-05 @ 11:39:46 prediction Map
ConservRep: Thanks for those profiles!
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-05 @ 13:12:09 prediction Map
Congrats on getting every state right, KS.

Last Edit: 2010-11-05 @ 13:13:40
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-05 @ 15:09:04 prediction Map
Thank you, albaleman and thank you, BushCountry.

My theories on Arkansas and Missouri were wrong. I was amazed by the election results this year. In any other year those two would have been shoo-ins.
 By: d-russ (R-OH) 2010-11-05 @ 20:36:07 prediction Map
Hopefully Sharron Angle challanges John Ensign in the Republican primary of 2012. If she can rebrand herself she could win in the general election.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-05 @ 20:51:33 prediction Map
lol

That's funny even though it wasn't meant to be.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-05 @ 20:51:45 prediction Map
And a note on Oklahoma's turn on the Democratic Party-

All statewide officials running for re-election (all statewide officials are currently Democrats) lost. All open seats flipped. Governor, Lt. Governor, AG, the whole thing.

I was very impresseed with Lieutenant Governor Askins, Auditor Burrage, and many others who lost. There was not a single one of them I disliked.

I am deeply saddened by Oklahoma ousting it's Democrats. The only Democrat remaining in Secretary of State Susan Savage, the fromer mayor of Tulsa. Her job is up every four years. The governor nominates, the legislature confirms. However, neither of these are likely to happen, and thus Secreary Savage is probably going to be out of a job come January as well.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-05 @ 22:28:42 prediction Map
As long as Obama is the face of the Democrats, they're gonna have a hard time in southern states...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-05 @ 23:26:03 prediction Map
Sad, but true.

In retrospect, I would have rather had McCain win so that Lincoln would win.

This year was bad, especially for moderates, who had the most casualties of the various ideological groups.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 00:42:12 prediction Map
Thanks guys! I thought everyone would be interested in meeting some of our new senators on the GOP side. I think that BC nailed it on our races out West. The Tea Party had major wins all over the place but not in Nevada or Colorado. In Nevada, the establishment GOP disliked Angle and thus provided her with little funding or support. Hell many state GOPers endorsed Reid and she ended up under preforming among Republicans (Washoe County is a fine example). I find that to be inexcusable on the part of my party and it will not be forgotten. In Colorado I think the governor's race was a disaster and had reverse coattails on this very close election. I will say here though that I believe Jan Norton would have been the stronger candidate.

And actually KS I'm glad McCain lost in 2008. He represented what was fundamentally wrong with the establishment GOP. This era under Obama and the liberal Democrats has given us all new perspective and the conservative in this country new energy. Just as the liberals took over the Democrats, we are dedicated to taking the GOP. 2010 was only the beginning for us, we have a lot more work to do. For now, I'm content with our victories so in a way I say thank you to President Obama.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-06 @ 11:09:23 prediction Map
"Hell many state GOPers endorsed Reid and she ended up under preforming among Republicans (Washoe County is a fine example). I find that to be inexcusable on the part of my party and it will not be forgotten."

When you nominate somebody that loony, that is to be expected. Don't blame the Republicans who endorsed Reid, blame the people who chose Angle in the first place. In this year, a lizard could have beaten Harry Reid.

Last Edit: 2010-11-06 @ 11:15:32
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 11:48:20 prediction Map
"They got a huge wake-up call two days ago, but unfortunately they took a lot of Democrats down with them."

-- Florida gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink (D), on a "tone-deaf" Obama White House.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 11:55:33 prediction Map
When 'House Effects' Become 'Bias'
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 12:14:01 prediction Map
http://www.tucsonsentinel.com/local/report/110510_giffords_reelected

Congratulations, Representative Giffords.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 13:56:41 prediction Map
I saw these two pictures over on the forum side of this site and thought I'd post 'em here-





Last Edit: 2010-11-06 @ 13:57:01
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-06 @ 15:11:12 prediction Map
:)))))))
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 18:08:01 prediction Map
":)))))))"

: ))))))))

It's nice when corrupt politicians like him lose.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-06 @ 18:34:46 prediction Map
Too bad they got elected in AR,NC,LA,IN and AZ!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 19:09:54 prediction Map
: (((((((

Don't forget MO.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 19:35:19 prediction Map
_____________________________________________

Robin Carnahan's official statement, from her website
_____________________________________________

Last night, our campaign came to an end. It's not the end we wanted and worked so hard for, but it's also not the end of our journey, or the end of our cause.

During the past 20 months, I traveled all over our state and listened to stories from countless Missourians. I'm more optimistic today about our people and our future than when I started.

I got to know so many people who were selfless, kind, and devoted to making our state and country a better place.

Nearly 37,000 people donated to our campaign, and many thousands more volunteered their time. You gave of your time and treasure not because you expected something in return, but because you believed in our cause.

And, that cause continues. Because unfortunately the problems we face won't go away just because this election is over; and they're not Democratic or Republican problems. They affect us all. Meeting those challenges can't just be left to the folks in Washington. To fix what's broken, we need men and women of goodwill all across this land united in common purpose and driven by uncommon resolve.

So despite the disappointment we're feeling, we do have a vital role to play.

I know I've already asked for so much from you, but I'd like to ask one last thing of each of you: Stay engaged, determined, and defiant. And above all, never, ever, let the fire go out.

Thank you again for your help and friendship - it means more than you'll ever know.

Robin Carnahan
_____________________________________________

Blanche Lincoln's official statement, from her website (click to enlarge)
_____________________________________________




Last Edit: 2010-11-06 @ 19:36:15
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 19:55:33 prediction Map
Now now let's be good sports with Rossi and all other candidates. He fought a tough campaign against a powerful incumbent in a very blue state. Honestly would any other Republican have done as well? I think not. I'd like to thank Mr. Rossi for giving it a try anyway.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 20:16:43 prediction Map
McKenna could have won...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-06 @ 20:37:16 prediction Map
Bye, Ben.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-06 @ 21:37:55 prediction Map
You really think so? I don't know much about McKenna.

Indeed, good bye Ben Nelson and hello future senator-elect Bruning.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-07 @ 00:07:39 prediction Map
Heniemann would be a fool not to claim Nelson's seat in 2012. If Henieman wants to be senator, he'd have to defeat Johanns in the primary in 2014.

Either way, NB will be a guaranteed landslide GOP victory in 2012.

I wouldn't even support Nelson!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-07 @ 01:43:47 prediction Map
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 01:06:43 prediction Map
Well there may be a few we can predict who should/might lose and I would add Leibermann as neither party nor independents want him. Brown will have a tough time IF the GOP is really contentious...but there are plenty of RED staters represented by DEMs who might lose from Montana to FLorida...I honestly see a scenario where the house and senate flip in 2012...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 09:17:01 prediction Map
CR- McKenna and SoS Reed would have been better challengers. I would still support Murray over either one, but I admire both of them.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 11:03:36 prediction Map
_____________________________________________

Jari Askins's official statement, from her website
_____________________________________________

Thank you so much for all of your work on behalf of our campaign.

I am proud of our team and proud of our volunteers.

I don’t believe anything we could have done differently would have changed the result. It just wasn’t our year so please, don’t be discouraged.

One thing is for certain – in the month of September we raised more money than any other candidate in Oklahoma history, we ran a new media campaign that no one ever has seen before in Oklahoma, and we ran a field operation that was the largest in our state’s history.

We all did our best and I’m so grateful for your efforts.

I wish the new Governor-Elect the best of luck and support in the next four years.

I pledge to you and to her that I will continue to work hard for Oklahoma and help in any way I can to support our people.

I encourage you to let our newly-elected officials and your legislators know your own thoughts and ideas about what you’d like to see in the next couple of years.

I have faith that we can accomplish anything if we all pull together, so it’s important to let your voice be heard.

I am grateful for your faith in me; but, my faith in you and in Oklahoma were the real winners.

Thanks, again,

Jari
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-07 @ 11:18:20 prediction Map
Brad Henry and Dave Fruedental are both very popular. I'm kinda scratching my head as to why they were both replaced with Republicans.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 11:33:33 prediction Map
Wyoming is simple- It's a one-party state.

Oklahoma is more confusing, although I have a feeling it's the Dixiecrats being removed from power one state at a time.

It was TN, to a certin extent AL, GA, SC, FL, to a ceratin extent MS, LA, TX, and now we're seeing the remaining ones in the states I've already listed being ousted, and then AR and OK are now joing them, by flipping the balance of power in sttatewide offices. This year was bad for economicic ceter-leftists and social moderates/tilt-right like myself. They were eliminated all over the nation. Conservatives still have their deep, red, rural areas, Liberal Democrats have urban areas, but where do the moderates exist after this election?

Apparently nowhere.

Lincoln, Askins, Burrage, Taylor, Edwards, Bright, Marshall, Boyd, Davis.

All gone.

And Savage will be on her way out too once Fallin can find a zellot to replace her with.

Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 11:36:02
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-07 @ 13:12:37 prediction Map
Yes, it was a rough night for Dixiecrats.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 13:16:19 prediction Map
I know. I'm hoping Savage gets to stay on as SoS (She's not much a of a partisan figure, and is very good at what she does), but it won't happen.

I was amazed at how badly Edwards lost. And good ol' Jim Marshall, a good guy, was swept out by the GOP wave, along with Spratt, Davis, the list goes on and on.

This election's biggest losers- Dixiecrats.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 20:27:35 prediction Map
Fellow Americans, Libertarians, Liberals, Republicans, and fellow Dixiecrats,

I've been thinking long and hard about the consequences of this election.

And I've come to a conclusion.

Now is the time for our nation to rise above partisan politics and put the greater good of the people first.

It is time for an end to fear-mogering and name-calling. Let's put down our "Obama = Hitler" signs and start calling our representatives to tell them some legislative ideas you think could help get your area and our nation back on track.

It's time to quit all the nonsense on illeagal immigration and start working at the probelm at it's root- our undeniable drug problems.

We keep sending money to Mexico, but that's only to fight the cartels on streets, not try to put them out of business by fighting the problem here at home. What we're doing now is pulling the head off the dandilion, it feels good to see the head gone, but another head will replace it as the plant grows back as the root is still there, and the problem will continue to affect our society.

We need to put our planet and our safety first by breaking our addiction to oil and other dirty fuels. Our planet will be a better place if we do.

We need to bring our defeict down, and we need to pay back China. And if that means temporarily raising taxes on the super-rich, so be it.

We need to sttart making things again. We need to get our manufacturing industry moving again, and to do it, we need to fight large corporations making a profit off of exploiting workers overseas and laying off American workers.

All these challenges we can solve, but it will take a Congress that puts our future over their re-eleciton (I will always admire Blanche Lincoln for this), and puts our planets over thier pockets.

We need to restore our democracy and keep foreign money from influencing our elecitons, and hold our officials accountable for shady deals.

We can do all this, and I hope the new Congress understands the message America sent them-

PEOPLE OVER POLITICS!!!!!

Last Edit: 2010-11-07 @ 20:36:45
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-07 @ 22:29:39 prediction Map
Oh I think the new Congress understands a lot of things. I think it understands that the people are tired of the spending and the debt. I think they know the people are tired of bills being passed with backroom deals and without being read fully or debated properly. I think they know the citizen of this country are sick of a big and intrusive government that is creating more problems than its solves. And most importantly I think they know the American people are tired of being talked down to by a bunch of out of touch beltwayers that think they know best.

I agree that its time for people over politics. I also think its time for a new direction and some new solutions. We keep trying the same old thing and its still not working. I hold my own party accountable for this just as I do the Democrats. As Beohner and Rubio both said on election night this is not a time to celebrate. We have a lot of work to do. The American people have given the Republicans a second chance to get it right and stand on principle. We are on probation here.

And if the current crop of people in Washington, regardless of party, can't get the job done that we the people have ask them to do, then we the people will find someone who can. Its just that simple.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-07 @ 22:58:54 prediction Map
I agree that we need a new direction and new solutions. And sending people like Roy Blunt, Rob Portman, and Pat Toomey to D.C. doesn't really help in that.

I am impressed by Marco Rubio. But I disagree with him on most everything.

We need new solutions, from Democrats and Republicans. But I am not impressed on this new insane plan for total free market like the Tea Party is pushing.

Democrats are just as guilty of this "politics above people" nonsense as Republicans. I hope Keith Olbermann, Ed Schultz, Rachel Maddow, Lawrence "Socialist" O'Donnell, Bill O'Reily, Glenn Beck, and everyone at "Fox and Friends" get fired for biased spin instead of objective reporting.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 01:52:27 prediction Map
I like you're ideas, but I don't know if I'd be willing to give up Olbermann...thats tough.

I'm not particularly impressed with Rubio. He's just a politician with a sales pitch. He doesn't care about the people of Florida; Crist does!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 07:38:06 prediction Map
Well, Rubio has done a great job of appealing to the base and swing voters, so I'll give him that.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 16:06:11 prediction Map
I knew this was going to happen sooner or later...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 16:41:04 prediction Map
Manchin wouldn't turn his back on the Democrats and Robert Byrd.

"Republicans believe Manchin is particularly susceptible to the overture because he is up for reelection in 2012 and will have to be on the ticket with President Obama, who is direly unpopular in West Virginia."

Rockefeller won with 64% in 2008 with Obama at the top of the ticket. Manchin will have crossover appeal no matter what.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 18:25:11 prediction Map
I agree, but that was when Obnama was less toxic.
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 18:46:46 prediction Map
Yes, but hopefully he'll become less toxic again if the economy improves.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 19:06:17 prediction Map
It was Crist that was the opportunist in Florida. Marco is a man of principles and perhaps my one of my top five favorite senators in Washington.

If we are going to flip any Democrat to our side its Manchin. I don't know how successful we'll be but if we can't flip him maybe he'll prove to be a reliable crossover vote for us on a number of issues. He ran a very conservative campaign and he'll be accountable in conservative West Virginia in 2012.

Come on Joe, plenty of room on this side of the aisles ;)

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 19:07:04
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 19:16:25 prediction Map
I doubt he will though - it's very rare.

Besides, if he did switch he'd probably be labeled a "RINO" and be beaten by some loony tea partier in his 2012 primary.

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 19:17:40
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:16:39 prediction Map
"It was Crist that was the opportunist in Florida."
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 19:18:58 prediction Map
lol to you Miles :D

I agree Al. A switch is very unlikely. However, as I said, perhaps he'll be a fairly decent crossover vote from time to time.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:21:54 prediction Map
I'd say there's a higher likelihood of Lieberman switching. He'd get crushed as an independent. If he switched parties, at least he'd have the GOP unified around him.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 19:27:49 prediction Map
I would be happy to see Lieberman switch. Good ridance, you corporate sellout.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:35:20 prediction Map
I wouldn't be surprised to see Lieberman switch to the GOP but Snowe switch to the Dems in 2012.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 19:42:47 prediction Map
I think Snowe will stay right were she is. I can't really say way but its just a gut feeling. Lieberman I don't know about. I mean if he was going to switch you'd think he would have done it by now.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 19:52:27 prediction Map
63% of ME Republicans would vote for a more conservative challenger.

I think she'll see the writing on the wall. She'd smart enough to know that she won't win a Republican primary. She'll either retire or switch parties.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 19:52:34 prediction Map
Joe is a loose canon. Hopefully Snowe will come over to the Democrats...
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 20:17:42 prediction Map
Because that worked out so well for the Arlen Specter. No I think Snowe knows her force is in her traditional base. Its true that 63% of Maine Republicans would vote for someone else but no one has stepped up to challenge her just yet. She may work to move to the right in an effort to appeal her voters. There will be no guarantees for her as a Democrat either.

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 22:19:20
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 20:29:48 prediction Map
Maybe she'll run as an Independent. Independent candidates have been more successful in Maine than just about anywhere else.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 20:29:48 prediction Map
Arlen Specter did set a bad precedent for switching parties.

"Conservative businessman Scott D'Amboise has declared his candidacy... Another potential challenger is conservative former state senator Chandler Woodcock, the GOP's 2006 gubernatorial nominee, who leads Snowe by five points in a hypothetical match-up. "
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-08 @ 20:31:53 prediction Map
As for Lieberman, it doesn't really matter what he does, he'll be replaced by a Democrat in two years. Politically he's a dead duck.

Last Edit: 2010-11-08 @ 20:32:25
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-08 @ 20:48:47 prediction Map
I agree with albaleman and Miles.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-08 @ 22:23:04 prediction Map
Well I think that we can all agree that Lieberman is a pretty lame duck, no pun intended.

But a lot can happen between now and 2012. Could Snowe get primaried, sure. If that happens could she run as a Democrat or an independent? Sure. She could also do what Bob Bennett did in Utah and gracefully accept the will of the voters and step aside. Or she could get renominated. We just don't know. That goes for a lot of race coming up in 2012.

Only time will tell us what we want to really know.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-08 @ 23:56:57 prediction Map
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 07:40:19 prediction Map
LOL

Yet so true.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 16:00:51 prediction Map
Who would vote for him??????
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-09 @ 16:10:37 prediction Map
58% of Arkansas....
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-09 @ 16:13:25 prediction Map
Thats why I don't like having Obama as the face of the Democratic party. As long as Obama is around,Dixiecrats like Lincoln is gonna have a hard time...a black Democratic president is a huge drag on any Dixiecrat.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 16:50:59 prediction Map
I know, which is not only sad, it doens't speak well of that region...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 17:55:03 prediction Map
This is disgusting...
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-09 @ 18:15:04 prediction Map
I bet Obama's next challenger will be Kendrick Meek!!!
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 18:40:03 prediction Map
LOL

Alvin Greene got a greater vote %age than Meek did...
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-09 @ 19:38:07 prediction Map
Its not because Obama is half black that's the problem for Dixiecrats. Its the fact that he is simply too far to the left.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 19:38:56 prediction Map
C'mon, CR, you know there's more to it than that...
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-09 @ 19:42:24 prediction Map
Not really. For some people race is still an issue. But a lot of this is about the issues and his agenda.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 19:48:29 prediction Map
There was an unmistakable swing in AR, TN, OK, and WV from Kerry to Obama.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-09 @ 20:10:12 prediction Map
And it's racism. The tide chaged from 2004 to 2008, and a couple of states (all in the south, hmmmm) went the other way, in fact, in Arkansas' case, 10 POINTS THE OTHER WAY.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-09 @ 23:36:59 prediction Map
Different years and different candidates. John Kerry was liberal but Obama..... The South does not like liberal candidates. Plus the dynamics of those year were completely different.

Last Edit: 2010-11-09 @ 23:38:10
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-10 @ 02:12:44 prediction Map
LA swung 4 points towards McCain.

I think its pretty safe to say that Bush is more conservative than McCain.

Why would LA, a very red state, vote more for the moderate(McCain) then the more conservative Republican (Bush)?

...because they didn't want to vote for a black man!!
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-10 @ 02:25:11 prediction Map
Or they don't like the very liberal Barack Obama. He was reported to be the most liberal senator in the Senate and I'm sure that was sour grapes to the South. Run Bernie Sanders for president and see if he does better or worse than Kerry in the South. I'll go with worse. Plus Kerry had a southern running mate, Edwards was from North Carolina.

I'd bet dollars to donuts that the South would vote for a black Republican candidate.

Last Edit: 2010-11-10 @ 02:25:48
 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-10 @ 09:48:50 prediction Map
Yep, it's racism. That's why every state that became more Republican from 2004 to 2008 was Southern. And racism is still crippling Obama. I don't think the right-wing media would be attacking Obama as a muslim socialist born in Indonesia were he white.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-10 @ 16:24:51 prediction Map
Good news for Dixiecrats. PPP has Beshear ahead:

"Steve Beshear has unusually strong approval numbers for an incumbent Governor and looks favored to win reelection next year at this very early stage. He's up 44-35 on David Williams and 45-26 on Phil Moffett in PPP's newest look at the race."
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 18:27:55 prediction Map
YYYYYEEEEEEESSSSS!!!!!!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-10 @ 21:05:08 prediction Map
http://politic365.com/2010/11/04/where-meek-ended-up-and-where-he-might-go/

"Meek, for the moment, may find himself on the receiving end of accusations that he spoiled the election for Democrats, his 20 percent contributing to Rubio’s win. Hence, it will be some time before he fully recovers politically. Yet, politics has a short life span...

...All said, Meek shows a promising future, molded by track record and energy unsurpassed by many high profile politicians. Once the stain of this defeat wears off, it’s certain he’ll return to Florida politics as though the Senate contest never took place."



I said this once and I'll say it again...

As a registered Democrat, I will NEVER endorse Meek for a damn thing!!!
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-10 @ 21:23:30 prediction Map
For Good Ole Memories:

Second Amendment and rights to form a militia

Angle was quoted as saying, "What is a little bit disconcerting and concerning is the inability for sporting goods stores to keep ammunition in stock ... That tells me the nation is arming. What are they arming for if it isn't that they are so distrustful of their government? They're afraid they'll have to fight for their liberty in more Second Amendment kinds of ways?" and "That's why I look at this as almost an imperative. If we don't win at the ballot box, what will be the next step?"
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 21:33:51 prediction Map
I disliked Meek well before this Senate race. The bad part is that he cost Crist the Senate race.

LOL on Angle. Maybe she can challenge Ensign. THAT WOULD BE A GREAT PRIMARY.
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-10 @ 22:19:52 prediction Map
I would love to see that !!! LOVE to.

I will miss not having her batshit crazy quotes in the headlines.

Between her and O'Donnell it was neverending fun.

I guess Ill have to continue to follow Jim Demint and Michelle Bachmann for the same nutty fun.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-10 @ 23:03:02 prediction Map
Ensign is actually doing pretty well in primary polling. He leads Heller by about 5. Still, Ensign is the weaker candidate and I hope he makes it to the general election.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-10 @ 23:03:08 prediction Map
LOL

The never-ending cirus. Those two are crazy.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-10 @ 23:33:31 prediction Map
Yes but there really is nothing quite like the craziness that we get to enjoy from the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Joe Biden, Barney Frank, and so many others on a daily basis.

They've been my entertainment for years, lol.
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 00:08:48 prediction Map
Well I really wish Pelosi would step down. Particuliarly after she is a direct cause of her parties losses.

I almost spit up my coffee when I heard she was seeking to run as minority leader.

I still can't stand her!
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 00:09:45 prediction Map
I would support whomever runs against her for that leadership position.
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-11 @ 00:30:56 prediction Map
Oh I agree LR, I too was amazed. In truth I thought she'd just retire but nope. I actually hopes she gets to be the minority leader (oh still sounds so good). Keeping her as the face of House Democrats makes our job a lot easier :D
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 01:19:56 prediction Map
Democrats have better to offer then her leadership. I felt this way before the Nov 2 election.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-11 @ 02:00:26 prediction Map
"Well I really wish Pelosi would step down. Particuliarly after she is a direct cause of her parties losses."

No, Obama was the cause of the Democratic loses. Pelosi was one of the most accomplished Speakers in history. She was right...the GOP wanted to take her out because she was efficient! Over 300 bills that the House passed under Pelosi got stuck in the Senate and Obama's leadership was timid at best.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-11 @ 02:05:47 prediction Map
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 03:33:56 prediction Map
Well perhaps I certaintly recognize Obama's role in the losses. He is number 1.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-11 @ 14:00:55 prediction Map
Obama didn't do 2 things:

1) He didn't provide visible leadership. Reid and Pelosi carried the healthcare bill all by themselves, Obama just sat there and appeases Lieberman!

2) Obama was a terrible salesperson; he let the GOP and Fox run the narrative and spread misinformation about stuff like death panels, higher taxes, etc. Obama need to make a clear case for change to the American people. He didn't.

Obama's timidness cost Pelosi the House.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-11 @ 16:57:38 prediction Map
Happy Veterans day, everyone. And thanks to those who have served our country, I salute them.
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2010-11-11 @ 17:54:11 prediction Map
LOL on that pic.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-11 @ 18:26:41 prediction Map
Happy Veterans Day!!!
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-11 @ 23:29:07 prediction Map
Agreed, Happy Veterans Day!

My heart filled thanks to all our troops!
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-12 @ 17:33:21 prediction Map
Former Representative Boozman still isn't sayin' much!
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-12 @ 20:18:58 prediction Map
That's Senator-elect Boozman!

Last Edit: 2010-11-12 @ 20:19:19
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-12 @ 22:40:05 prediction Map
I'm sticking with Former Representative Boozman! :))))
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-13 @ 09:05:18 prediction Map
Former Represenative Boozman! ; )
 By: bonncaruso (D-DEU) 2010-11-14 @ 05:55:56 prediction Map
Chuckle...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-14 @ 10:14:50 prediction Map
: )
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-18 @ 08:00:45 prediction Map
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/11/17/extra_bonus_quote_of_the_day.html

LOL>>>>
 By: CR (--MO) 2010-11-18 @ 23:36:21 prediction Map
Yep and according to Harry Reid there are no illegal aliens working on construction projects in the state of Nevada.

 By: albaleman (D-MN) 2010-11-19 @ 13:52:24 prediction Map
I don't see how anything Harry Reid has ever said compares to some of the stuff Sharron Angle has said.

Last Edit: 2010-11-19 @ 13:55:25
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-11-19 @ 15:49:42 prediction Map
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-19 @ 16:19:14 prediction Map
: ))))))))

That's great, Miles.
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-19 @ 16:44:37 prediction Map
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-11-20 @ 18:26:27 prediction Map
And since everyone seems to be leaving for a whiles, I have a few words to say, even though I will be here until the 2011 Gub. predictions open up.

First, to Miles, CR, LR, bonn, albaleman, dnul, and everyone else, you made this website great. All of you had insightful analysis which I appreciate greatly. You made this cycle a blast.

I am disappointed by the election results, from the defeat of Senator Lincoln and Secretary Carnahan to the fall of the House into GOP hand, but it's not the end for either of those two ladies.

Now is the time to slash spending left and right, including Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security (tightening restrictions for recieving benefits), Government contractors, and tax cuts for the wealthy. We need to solve the defecit NOW, and a divided congress is a great time to do that, because we can't agree to do much else. CUT, CUT, CUT.

So, with this, I say thank you to everyone for a great year, and I wish everyone here the absolute best as we all move forward in our lives.

Best wishes to all,

William

aka KS21

Last Edit: 2010-11-20 @ 21:44:34
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-01-03 @ 18:35:45 prediction Map
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/01/03/graysons_limo.html

-----...
 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2011-01-18 @ 11:49:15 prediction Map
Scores have been posted and Miles and I have tied for first at 90.5% or 67/74.

I'm happy.
 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2011-03-14 @ 23:46:49 prediction Map
Me too :)

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 28 0 47T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 27/33 59/66 89.4% pie 37 0 1
P 2012 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 5 0 51T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 28 5 2T
P 2010 Senate 37/37 30/37 67/74 90.5% pie 203 0 2T
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 146 0 17T
Aggregate Predictions 175/178 139/178 314/356 88.2% pie



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