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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:4

Prediction Map
Smash255 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Smash255 Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem10
 
pie
Rep19
 
Ind0
 
Tos8
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-3-3-69413-6
Rep+3+3+600010818+6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133851
Republican242347
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
583424
piepiepie

Analysis

Reluctantly flipped Nevada and Illinois to GOP. I know the polls show PA going to Toomey, but I have a feeling Dem turnout is predicted to be too low in the polls and I feel that Sestak will pull it off. Colorado is as tossup as tossup can get, but I will give the edge to Bennet.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 1 2 47T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 2 40T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 24/37 58/74 78.4% pie 4 1 86T
P 2010 Governor 37/37 26/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 1 11T
P 2008 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 16 2 13T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 20/33 53/66 80.3% pie 4 2 57T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 10/11 21/22 95.5% pie 2 2 3T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 158 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 15 2 20T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 23/36 58/72 80.6% pie 10 1 44T
P 2004 President 49/56 33/56 82/112 73.2% pie 2 139 1036T
Aggregate Predictions 377/391 276/391 653/782 83.5% pie



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