PredictionsNewsEndorse2010 Senatorial Predictions - opebo (D-MO) ResultsForumPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Advertisements

History Posters!
Dow Jones


Election and History Posters from History Shots!

Note: click will open in new window if pop-ups allowed


Date of Prediction: 2010-09-26 Version:5

Prediction Map
opebo Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
opebo Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind0
 
Tos15
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-2-4-610313-6
Rep+2+4+600010818+6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic133851
Republican242347
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
503218
piepiepie

Analysis

Realism now, at the end.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Twindad46 (R-IL) 2010-09-26 @ 22:01:43 prediction Map
I don't think that Giannoulias getting 60% in Illinois is very realistic. Neither is having Blanche Lincoln getting re-elected. Aside from those two errors, your map is quite plausible.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-09-26 @ 23:13:04 prediction Map
I like Governor Jindal. Bobby is a good man.

Be a great VP pick for John Thune in 2012.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-09-26 @ 23:18:56 prediction Map
LOL

Jindal is nothing more than a greedy hypocrite.

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-09-26 @ 23:21:25 prediction Map
"Bobby is a good man."

You don't live in LA, CR.

Its because of Jindal's policies that LSU is having to cut 35% of its budget. Most of my professors can't stand him.
I'm on a scholarship here. If things get really bad and Jindal cuts even more of LSU's budget, I could lose my scholarship.

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-09-27 @ 00:35:06 prediction Map
The Republicans down here are the George W Bush "conservatives" who spend on wasteful stuff. I have 2 uncles, Chris Hazel and Nick Larusso, in the State Legislature; they're both Republican hacks. They'll gladly spend on stuff like gun programs and tobacco subsides, but when it comes to education, they're budget hawks all of the sudden.

The true fiscal conservatives down here are the Dixiecrats. Thats why they're so popular in Arkansas. I wish Kathleen Blanco had run for a second term as governor. We'd still be in bad shape, but we wouldn't be cutting nearly as much.

Again, CR, if LSU can't afford for me to keep my scholarship next year,...we have Jindal to blame. After all, he's such a "good man." ;)

If the great Kingfish Huey Long saw the sad state of LA politics today, he'd be very disappointed.

Last Edit: 2010-09-27 @ 01:05:29

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-09-27 @ 02:48:27 prediction Map
I am sorry to hear about your educational troubles Miles and I really hope you are able to keep your scholarship. I myself went to school through loans, fellowships, and working. And while I don't know much about Louisiana's educational system if its anything like Missouri's I'm willing to bet it never has enough money, year after year.

It really is sad that wasteful spending on so many government programs over the years has forced us into such a difficult situation. But that is where we are and we need leaders who are willing to make the tough choices that will force us to live within our means. I don't blame Governor Jindal for trying to fix a mess caused by decades of spending. Its not easy to be in situations like that. I'd be grateful to have Bobby as our governor because he is as I said a good man.

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2010-09-27 @ 07:11:35 prediction Map
Miles, hope it all works out educationally speaking and I appreciate your references to populists of the past...

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-09-27 @ 07:45:37 prediction Map
"They'll gladly spend on stuff like gun programs and tobacco subsides, but when it comes to education, they're budget hawks all of the sudden."

It's sickening.

The same is true here in Kansas.

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-09-27 @ 13:30:58 prediction Map
CR,
In all likelihood, I'll keep my scholarship, unless the budget situation gets very bad. However, if I were applying at LSU this year, they probably wouldn't have offered me as a big a scholarship as I got due to the poor budget.

Jindal does seem to be a good guy at the personal level. My aunt and his wife are friends and he does seem like a decent guy. I just can't agree with his political choices.

KS,
Yes it is very sickening how the gun and tobacco lobby owns most southern Republicans. The problem is that most Democrats, especially in New Orleans, are just as slimy. Mayor Mitch Landerieu is probably the least corrupt. He took office in May and he tried to build a 'honest team.' As of this week, he has already fired two of his officials for corruption. Its sad.
Both parties are very corrupt down here. Bill Jefferson was pretty much a typical New Orleans Democrat.
The Democrats/Dixiecrats have been in power down here for so long that they've become associated with corruption more than the GOP has. Jindal argues that in LA, the Republicans are the 'party of change' but I don't buy it.

dnul,
Huey Long is one of my all-time favorite politicians. Now there was a true socialist! I guarantee you that if he weren't assassinated in 1935, he would have become president. He would have probably challenged FDR in 1940 or Truman in 1944. Long probably could have beaten Truman in the primary.

The modern-day equivalent of Long would be someone like Alan Grayson or Bill Halter. Long's Senate seat is now held by Mary Landrieu; while she's much less populist than him, I'm glad its still in Democratic hands.







Last Edit: 2010-09-27 @ 13:32:28

 By: MilesC56 (D-LA) 2010-09-27 @ 13:31:34 prediction Map
ahhh...Louisiana politics is very interesting.

 By: KS21 (I-KS) 2010-09-27 @ 16:52:40 prediction Map
Louisiana is different, that's for sure.

 By: CR (--MO) 2010-09-27 @ 20:52:48 prediction Map
Well I can at least respect your opinions and differences Miles. Best of luck to you again with your studies. I know I'm glad to be done with school, the minute I got that Chemistry degree I was gone! Actually it wasn't all that bad, I like learning but I'm glad the exam-fests are over, lol.

And for the record I like Louisiana.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2012 President 56/56 48/56 104/112 92.9% pie 10 15 13T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 1 36 198T
P 2010 Senate 32/37 18/37 50/74 67.6% pie 5 37 221T
P 2008 President 48/56 35/56 83/112 74.1% pie 27 5 404T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 13/33 46/66 69.7% pie 2 25 227T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 4 0 156T
P 2004 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 22 5 219T
Aggregate Predictions 285/304 183/304 468/608 77.0% pie



Back to 2010 Senatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home

© David Leip 2003 All Rights Reserved