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Data Sets

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Date of Prediction: 2010-10-31 Version:3

Prediction Map
hoshie Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
hoshie Map


Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep26
 
Ind0
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep21
 
Ind0
 
Tos5
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-4-4-88311-8
Rep+4+4+800010818+8
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic113849
Republican262349
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
483414
piepiepie

Analysis

I have fixed PA and AK due to the tightness of the race there. While I could see Murkowski win this, the mechanics of a write-in vote make this difficult. I also feel that AR and WI are no longer tossups.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate 33/36 23/36 56/72 77.8% pie 6 9 99T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 1 1 73T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 1 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 41/56 96/112 85.7% pie 3 14 265T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 3 94T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 14/37 48/74 64.9% pie 3 2 265T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 19 56T
P 2008 President 52/56 31/56 83/112 74.1% pie 1 6 404T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 6 117T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 6 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 31 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 15/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 3 207T
P 2006 Governor 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 2 0 93T
P 2004 President 54/56 20/56 74/112 66.1% pie 6 1 1527T
Aggregate Predictions 409/430 225/430 634/860 73.7% pie



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