I have almost no confidence in predicting Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, and Alaska. The first three are essentially coin tosses and Alaska has a very interesting dynamic going on. I think that race could go any way, with a real possibility of it being the only Democratic gain in the Senate this year. Nevada looks like the most worrisome of the group. Any surprises outside of the tossups appear to be very unlikely. I think Wisconsin is pretty close to lean Republican as Feingold appears to be doomed (his winning reelection would pretty much be an upset at this point). This prediction leaves the Senate with a 54-46 balance, probably on the realistic upper end for Democrats. I would expect any result between 51-54 Democratic Senators. Any other outcome probably means one party is doing a good job exceeding expectations.