Election 2010 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2009-11-16 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	27
Ind	0
Non	1

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	9
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	11
Non	1

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-7	-2	-9	9	0	9	-9
Rep	+7	+2	+9	0	0	0	12	6	18	+9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (112th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	9	38	47
Republican	27	23	50
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
41	28	13

Analysis

Seem absurd? Perhaps, but the Republicans should have a great year and they did an amazing job of recruiting. If Pataki runs in NY, they may have a shot there. This is really a perfect storm, but I see a perfect storm coming.

Member Comments

By: azmagic (R-NH) 2009-11-16 @ 16:05:22
I like your style. :)

By: benconstine (D-VA) 2009-11-16 @ 16:24:13
Hoeven will not run in North Dakota, and if he did, Dorgan would still win.

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2009-11-16 @ 19:04:11
No he wouldn't, Ben. Quit fantasizing. Your map seems plausible, however, I think if Illinois flips, California would at least be a toss-up. It wouldn't be strong Democratic, IMO.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-11-17 @ 13:34:55
The Republicans would probably take CO, CT, or Del but IL, NV, and AR and PA aren't going to go down without a wave.

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2009-11-18 @ 12:17:43
Polls in Nevada show Reid trailing by double-digits to Republicans, and the Republicans haven't really even campaigned yet and gotten their name out there. In Arkansas, Lincoln has also become extremely unpopular. Let's just say, if Huckabee ran against her, he'd get over 65% of the vote, easily. Once the no-name Republican candidate gets more well-known, she's toast. And Pennsylvania has a bloody Democratic primary. I think that if Specter loses in the primaries, he'll run as an Independent.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) 2009-11-18 @ 17:18:50
Reid hasn't had a competetive campaign since 1998 with John Ensign. He has outraised his opponents, I think he has a better chance than people says he does. As for Ark I can say the same but internal polling shows her up outside the margin of error. Pure tossups are CO,Del,OH and KY.

By: Ogre Mage (D-WA) 2009-11-20 @ 21:46:54
The Republicans did not even pick up 9 seats in 1994 (they won 8). NY in particular is not happening, both Giuliani and Pataki will drop like a rock once they have to start campaigning and taking positions on hot-button issues in such a heavily Democratic state. Any advantage in the polls is all based on name recognition. IL, another heavy Dem state and the President's former seat, isn't happening either. I would bet money that a 9 seat pickup doesn't happen. Last Edit: 2009-11-20 @ 22:39:36

By: Brian10 (I-CO) 2009-11-22 @ 10:49:08
This is certainly plausible, though I the odds all these races will turn out in the GOP's favor is unlikely. - Vepres Last Edit: 2009-11-22 @ 10:49:31

By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2009-11-28 @ 12:38:17
Going state by state, on how insipid this map is: Ohio: Portman, R. in Ohio will be tied to the unpopular Governor Taft, R. & last President Bush, R. administration. Secretary Of State Jennifer Lee Brunner, D. is a proven statewide vote getter. I think it isn't a strong GOP or Democratic state at this time. Definitely a tossup. Pennsylvania: I think Specter, D. will survive the primary there. I see Sestak, D. unfortunately fading fast (I'd vote for Sestak myself if I was in PA). If you look at Specter's website, he's garnered the majority of the Democratic establishment endorsements including most, if not all of Sestak's fellows & ladies Democrats in the Congressional delegation. I really think that speaks very ill for Sestak's chances of upsetting Specter. If Toomey, R. is the GOP nominee there and Specter is the Democratic nominee, Specter trounces Toomey without any doubt! Louisiana: Vitter, R. is scandal ridden, and can't be counted on by the GOP to survive. Melancon, D. is going to make this a tough race for Vitter, R. Vitter may actually survive a close call in the GOP primary against Porn star Stormy Daniels, who has actually been stronger in the polls than what was thought could be. Lousiana should be considered a tossup. Colorado: I highly doubt Bennett, D. will lose to the GOP, especially if the the GOP nominee is very underfunded as I think they will be. California: Boxer, D. is in a very good position to win in a virtual landslide. Both main GOP candidates are very weak at best in recent polling. California has been one of the few states where Obama's Health Care hasn't hurt or caused a lot of Tea Party activity. Washington: Ditto on that, with Boxer, D., for Murray, D. Illinois: Should be tossup. If Congressman Kirk, R. wins the primary, which actually seems likely, many GOP voters will take a second look at him and think he's really a Democrat and the race will be very close, with many GOP voters either skipping that race on the ballot voting for either the Constitution, the independent or Libertarian candidate who will all appear to be much more GOP than Kirk and/or sit at home on November 2, 2010. A matter of fact, if Kirk wins the GOP nomination for Governor, expect that his U.S. House seat, District 10 will go back to it's Democratic majority roots, especially if that race is between state Representative Julie Hamos, D. & state Representative Elizabeth "Beth" Coulson, R. on November 2, 2010, and be a Democratic pickup. Missouri: Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, D. is a proven statewide vote getter. Granted, the GOP likely nominee, state Senator Chuck Pergason, R. could make this a challenge for Carnahan. (I'm convinced that Congressman Blunt, R. will lose the nomination). Missouri is a definite tossup if not a lean to the Democrats at this point in time. Kentucky: With the departure of incumbent Bunning, R., the Democrats have a decent shot here for the first time since the 1980's. It would have to depend on who is nominated and how bruised they are. I think if the race on November 2, 2010 is between Lt. Governor Mongiardo & Secretary of State Graysen this race would have to be considered a tossup since both are proven statewide vote getters. It would probably come down to 3 factors who would win: how Kentucky voters feel about Obama, D., how they feel about soon to be senior U.S. Senator McConnell, R. and the outcome of how well U.S. House, District 3 member (based in vote rich, and Democratic leaning Louisville -- although not leading), Sophomore John A. Yarmuth, D. does against GOP registered nurse Marilyn Parker, R. (most likely GOP nominee, there). New Hampshire: At least needs to be considered a tossup if not a Democratic leaning state. Congressman Paul W. Hodes, D. has not opposition in the Democratic primary and is highly unlikely to get any, either. The only way this race might be close is if the GOP nominee is former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, R. (but even then since the GOP nominee will have to contend with spending a lot in a primary, well Hodes does not, I think it has to be considered a Democratic leaning state for the U.S. Senate seat). Florida: Yes, at this time, Florida should be considered a tossup state. If only because if the contest of the GOP nomination between Governor Crist & former state House speaker Rubio continues to be nasty into August 24, 2010, then I would suspect who ever wins will be severely bruised and bloodied and many voters (especially the large # of independents in the state) might be turned off from them and open to the possibility of electing as their next U.S. Senator, Congressman Kendrick Meek, D. Crist, R. would stand a better chance against Meek, D., but if the more conservative GOP primary voters are still not liking Crist, than Rubio might sneek in for the nomination which would hurt Rubio on November 2. (Also, Crist being from St. Petersburg would help him along the vote rich and very important to the state - I-4 corridor). Another thing to watch out for would be how the Governor/Lieutenant Governor's race plays out, especially if it is between state Chief Financial Officer Adelaide "Alex" Sink (D.-Tampa)/either Best Buddies President Anthony Kennedy Shriver (D.-North Miami) or Concert Tour Promoter Darrin E. McGillis (D.-Miami) vs. state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R.-Orlando)/state Senator Paula Bono Dockery (R.-Lakeland). In that scenario for Governor/Lieutenant Governor the battle is again joined along the I-4 corridor, but if Sink, D. chooses a strong outsider such as either Shriver, D. or McGillis, D. from the southeast section as her running mate, than that also helps Sink broaden her appeal as well as help turn-out the Democratic leaning voters along that Southeastern portion of the state which would also help Meek, D. I could see the rest of this map happen, although I have differences of opinion about how it could occur.

By: Xahar (D-CA) 2009-11-28 @ 20:36:32
Oh dear.

By: colin (I-ON) 2009-12-02 @ 20:56:11
cnbpjb...we seem to be having some friendly differences of opinion! Actually, some of your analysis I agree with. I think you are on the money with both Ohio and Pennsylvania. Both states could be viewed as tossups at this point, and will sway with the political climate at the time of the election. I also agree with your assessments of Washington, Missouri (although I wouldn't go so far as to say that it is leaning Democrat), Kentucky and Illinois. I agree, to a point, with your views on California...HOWEVER, I am not sure if you are aware that Boxer has horrible approval ratings right now. I won't go as far as to say, at this point, that she will lose though. I agree, as I said in another post, that Vitter is definitely the most vulnerable Republican incumbent this go-around, however, I really don't see the GOP voters in the state picking a porn star over Vitter. Melancon on paper SHOULD be a formidable opponent, however, Louisiana has trended much more Republican as of late and with things as of right now trending Republican, Vitter is safe. The states that I will have to humbly disagree with you on are Colorado and New Hampshire (and Florida, but I explained that in another post as well). The likely GOP nominee in Colorado is Jane Norton, the former Lieutenant Governor. I know you appreciate the ability to garner statewide support as you have mentioned it numerous times. In a hypothetical matchup with Bennet, she is beating him in the polls right now, and fairly convincingly. The same could be said for New Hampshire. Kelly Ayotte, Attorney General (former?) is the likely Republican candidate and has experience winning statewide, where Hodes does not (to use your argument). She is also leading him in the polls right now. A lot can change in a year, but both states are at least tossups, if not leaning Republican...but certainly not sure bets for the Democrats.

By: cnbpjb (--GA) 2009-12-12 @ 23:45:50
Actually colin, In my latest map I have changed Colorado to a slight GOP pickup for Jane Norton. I also think Bennet is in trouble within his own party via, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. I don't think this means that Colorado is a gimme though for Norton. Norton probably also will have very thin, if any at all, dresstails (my term for coattails that are normally said about male candidates), meaning I doubt seriously she will take in many GOP candidates for the U.S. House or state offices with her. I looked at her sight, and she seems to be running as a moderate-right candidate that wants to be seen as someone running on her own. (I forgot to put in my new less-detailed analysis on my new map about my new analysis about Norton and the Bennet-Romanoff fight). I don't think you've read more recent polls that have Boxer about at least 11 to 12 points ahead of both of her potential GOP rivals. Also, if you look at some of the U.S. House seat races (especially for Mary Bono-Mack & Dan Lungren), many of the GOP incumbents are in great trouble out in California, and that may help Boxer a great deal (the Governor and statewide races will also help Boxer). Boxer may actually have to rely on reverse dresstails & coattails in her on I believe strong win. I know people don't believe me on here about Florida, but I am from Florida (the Tampa Bay area) and also am moving back there on December 28, 2009, and I'm very certain that my analysis on that Senate race is going to be proven correct. Democrat Kendrick Meek will also be helped in a similiar manner as Boxer (especially if a severely wounded in the primary Rubio is the GOP nominee) by several of the GOP U.S. House incumbents being in trouble & the statewide races. (I am predicting right now that California, Florida, Minnesota & Texas -- yes, Texas, will be four states where the Democrats will actually pickup seats in the U.S. House -- next door to where I'm moving GOP incumbent Bill Young is at least one of the GOP incumbents who are in severe trouble -- I'll be living and voting though in Democrat Kathy Castor's district -- but only be living a couple of feet from where Young's current 10th district is located -- and I plan to help his Democratic opponent state Senator Charlie Justice who would be volumes better than that do nothing Young). Florida Democrats also have a very strong chance of a having a very GREAT Gubernatorial year with CFO Alex Sink & the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket.

By: colin (I-ON) 2009-12-16 @ 18:32:46
No, I am in agreement with you that I would be shocked to see Boxer lose. I didn't realize that there were House members in trouble out there though. I haven't been following House races this early as of yet. I really don't see the Republicans keeping the governorship, that is for sure. As for Florida, you seem to be more in the know than I am at this point. We will wait to see more polling data in the future. Have a good move back to Florida and soak up some rays for us up here battling winter!

By: Dumbledore (D-FL) 2010-01-01 @ 03:54:23
Seems like much of this is hackery - I think that we can rule out New York (S) at this point, and North Dakota seems ridiculous as well. I think that in a best-case scenario, the GOP can win seven seats. Anything more just seems... unlikely. Last Edit: 2010-01-01 @ 04:00:15

By: Faye* (R-NV) 2010-01-09 @ 17:51:55
those newyork peopleare liberal so a democrat is going to take that one.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	28/37	13/37	41/74	55.4%	1	351	375	T	456
2009 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	108	56	T	103
2008 President	40/56	20/56	60/112	53.6%	6	3	1330	T	1,505
2008 Senate	28/33	10/33	38/66	57.6%	3	3	371	T	407
2008 Governor	8/11	5/11	13/22	59.1%	1	343	232	T	264
2007 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	171	102	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	28/33	16/33	44/66	66.7%	19	2	299	T	465
2006 Governor	26/36	12/36	38/72	52.8%	15	10	268	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	162/211	78/211	240/422	56.9%