Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:52

Prediction Map
BushCountry Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction Key	Confidence Key

Confidence Map
BushCountry Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	10
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	7
Ind	2
Tos	9
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+2	+3	-1	-2	-3	14	4	18	0
Rep	+1	+2	+3	-1	-3	-4	5	1	6	-1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	30	51
Republican	10	37	47
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Democrats have really beaten back to parity this cycle, after being down as many as five or six seats at certain points in the cycle. However, this map understates Republican gains. I predict McMahon will upset Murphy in Connecticut. It should be counted as a gain for the GOP. GOP net one seat. Democrats lose a seat. Independants stay even (really two Democrat seats).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-08 @ 17:38:43
Can the webmaster please fix the glitch with Connecticut? Thanks.

By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-08 @ 18:37:11
It's difficult when the map is not tallying pickup accurately. But it should be even with this map. All Democrat and Republican and Independent gains should cancel out completely.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank
2012 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	157	0	401	T
2012 Senate	30/33	20/33	50/66	75.8%	66	0	111	T
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	21	0	5	T
2012 Rep Primary	42/52	18/52	60/104	57.7%	105	-	41	T
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	5	0	37	T
2010 Senate	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	93	2	34	T
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	94	1	59	T
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	1	1	T
2008 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	183	1	115	T
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	101	1	28	T
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	43	1	86	T
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	8	2	58	T
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	94	1	46	T
2006 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	103	1	22	T
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	140	2	49	T
Aggregate Predictions	425/460	308/460	733/920	79.7%

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