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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-08 Version:52

Prediction Map
BushCountry Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
BushCountry Map


Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep10
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Tos9
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+2+3-1-2-3144180
Rep+1+2+3-1-3-4516-1
Ind0+1+1000101+1


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic213051
Republican103747
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Democrats have really beaten back to parity this cycle, after being down as many as five or six seats at certain points in the cycle. However, this map understates Republican gains. I predict McMahon will upset Murphy in Connecticut. It should be counted as a gain for the GOP. GOP net one seat. Democrats lose a seat. Independants stay even (really two Democrat seats).


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-08 @ 17:38:43 prediction Map
Can the webmaster please fix the glitch with Connecticut? Thanks.

 By: BushCountry (I-IN) 2012-10-08 @ 18:37:11 prediction Map
It's difficult when the map is not tallying pickup accurately. But it should be even with this map. All Democrat and Republican and Independent gains should cancel out completely.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 157 0 401T
P 2012 Senate 30/33 20/33 50/66 75.8% pie 66 0 111T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 21 0 5T
P 2012 Rep Primary 42/52 18/52 60/104 57.7% pie 105 - 41T
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 0 37T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 26/37 61/74 82.4% pie 93 2 34T
P 2010 Governor 34/37 25/37 59/74 79.7% pie 94 1 59T
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 14 1 1T
P 2008 President 52/56 42/56 94/112 83.9% pie 183 1 115T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 101 1 28T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 43 1 86T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 8 2 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 31/33 24/33 55/66 83.3% pie 94 1 46T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 103 1 22T
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 140 2 49T
Aggregate Predictions 425/460 308/460 733/920 79.7% pie



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