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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-09 Version:1

Prediction Map
DennisW Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
DennisW Map


Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem24
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem21
 
pie
Rep6
 
Ind2
 
Tos4
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+20+200015621+2
Rep000-2-1-3437-3
Ind0+1+1000101+1


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic243054
Republican73744
Independent202
pie

Analysis

Senator John Testor may win reelection in Montana in a very tight race. Polling has been unusually close in Montana where the Republicans want to do well and expect to do well. Polling slightly favors his opponent Representative Denny Rehberg and this is much lower than expected.

A lot of outside money is comming into the state. The Congressman says live with the change while the Senator deplores it. It depends on how sore Montanians are about the Supreme Court knocking down their very sensible campaign restriction law.

Representative Shelley Berkley will win in Nevada in a close race if President Obama does well in the state. If not, then Senator Dean Heller will likely hang on to the post he was appointed to with the resignation of Senator John Ensign. Senator Heller has not been in the office long and Nevada has been purple to red, so he has a fight on his hands.

Senator Claire McCaskill got the race she wanted in Representative Todd Aiken in Missouri. She will likely survive a race closer than it might be considering the Congressman's comments about "legitimate rape". The Republican National Committee now sees that race as important to winning the Senate and are putting money into his campaign. This money will keep the race close, but the Senator should survive.

Governor Tim Kaine is a very popular former Governor in Virginia. Govenor George Allen has his strong support in state as a former Governor and former Senator. Of the two Governor Allen polls the higher negatives.

Governor Allen sides with keeping the Bush Tax cuts and making deeper cuts to domestic spending if an increased deficit occurs. This positon may remind Virginia voters of the harsh side of his personality. The harsh side of Governor Allen's personality drives his negative polling numbers and gives his campaign problems in getting much traction.

Added to concerns about Governor Allen's negative polling numbers, Governor Kaine consistently out polls him. This race has implications for the presidential race. It will be fiercely contested to the wire. It has already gotten negative from the Allen side and we will see how Virginia voters will react to a negative campaign.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: DennisW (D-VA) 2012-11-02 @ 22:53:34 prediction Map
Indiana is beginning to look like it may go Democratic in the Senate Race. The Republican candidate, Richard Mourdoch, did not run away from his Democratic challenger with his Tea Party economics. He likely would have won handily had he not stepped into an extreme social position regarding rape. Latest poll has him down by 11% and with a long way to go between now and Tuesday.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2013 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 226 138T
P 2012 President 56/56 42/56 98/112 87.5% pie 3 0 182T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 12/33 43/66 65.2% pie 2 2 221T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 4/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 4 157T
Aggregate Predictions 98/102 58/102 156/204 76.5% pie


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