Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-04 Version:17

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	11
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	10
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+2	+3	-1	-3	-4	14	3	17	-1
Rep	+1	+3	+4	-1	-2	-3	5	2	7	+1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	30	50
Republican	11	37	48
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Update 17: Indiana from R >50 to D >50

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 16

Update 16: Maine from Lean I to Strong I.

Version: 15

Update 15: North Dakota from D >40% to R >50%.

Version: 14

Update 16: Massachusetts from R >40% to D >50%.

North Dakota from R >50% to D >40%.

Missouri from R >40% to D >50%.

Arizona from Lean to Tossup R.

Version: 13

Update 14:

Massachusetts from R >40% to R >50%.

Missouri from R >50% to R >40%.

New Mexico from Tossup to Lean.

Version: 12

Update 12: Nebraska from Lean to Strong.

Missouri from Lean to Tossup.

Version: 11

Update 11: Missouri from Tossup to Lean.

Version: 10

Update 10: Wisconsin from Tossup to Lean.

Rhode Island from Lean to Strong.

Indiana from D >40 to R >50.

Version: 9

Update 9: North Dakota from Lean to Tossup.

Missouri from D >40% to R >50%.

Version: 8

Update 8: Missouri from R >50% to D >40%.

Maine from I >50% to I >40%.

Version: 7

Update 7: Indiana from R >50% to D >40%.

Indiana from Lean to Tossup.

Maine from I >40% to I >50%.

Version: 6

Update 6: Wisconsin from D >40% to R >50%.

Version: 5

Update 5: Indiana from R >60% to R >50%.

From Strong to Lean.

Version: 4

Update 4: Wisconsin from R >40% to D >40%.

Version: 3

Update 3: Wisconsin from R >50% to R>40%.

Version: 2

Update 2: Made a mistake on Nebraska leaving it Lean Democrat instead of Lean Republican.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	5	2	246	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	23/34	55/68	80.9%	3	2	2	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	2	6	67	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	22/36	56/72	77.8%	10	2	99	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	17/36	47/72	65.3%	10	2	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	1	131	98	T	153
2012 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	38	4	314	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	17	2	164	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	8/11	17/22	77.3%	11	4	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	15/52	8/52	23/104	22.1%	4	-	184	T	231
Aggregate Predictions	264/328	172/328	436/656	66.5%