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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-29 Version:1

Prediction Map
wingindy Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
wingindy Map


Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem22
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind2
 
Tos7
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+1+30-2-215419+1
Rep0+2+2-2-1-3527-1
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic223052
Republican93746
Independent202
pie

Analysis

It appears as though IN Senator Lugar will loose in the upcoming primary to tea party favorite state treasurer Robert Mourdock. After the realization that the state has lost millions of dollars (not misappropriated, LOST), Mourdock will make a good target for former U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly in the general election. The Democrats could gain up to three seats, including King in Maine.


Member Comments
 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2012-05-08 @ 01:01:00 prediction Map
The press has been writing Lugar's political obituary for weeks, especially since the Howey/DePauw poll was released a week ago, showing Mourdock leading 48-38%. http://howeypolitics.com/SiteImages/FileGallery/Howey_563.Depauw%20May%202012%20GOP%20statewide%20results.pdf
The poll includes 76% Republicans, and only 2% Dem. or leaning Dem. Democrats however, have little to vote for on their side tomorrow - none of the statewide candidates are opposed. In my congressional district (Burton's seat), the Democratic candidate is unopposed. Meanwhile, there are 4 viable GOP candidates, and the winner will almost certainly win in the general election. In short, this poll far undercounts crossover voting. Few Democrats will cast a mischievous ballot for Mourdock in hopes of a Donnelly victory in the fall - most know that Mourdock may well win in November. Some Democrats have been voting for Lugar for three decades - Lugar has exceeded 66% in each of his past four elections. Due to crossover voting, the election will be much closer than this poll indicates. I predict Mourdock 51-49.

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2012-05-08 @ 22:03:57 prediction Map
Boy was I off. Everyone I know that I talked to about it, regardless of party, voted for Lugar. That's my inside 465 viewpoint. The Howey-DePauw poll that had Lugar up 10 points (an understated lead, as it turns out) has Mourdock and Donnelly tied at 38.

 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-05-10 @ 13:38:18 prediction Map
Wing,
Mourdock scares the piss out of me, and his tea party theme. I hope you plan to help Donnelly. Im feeling better about our chances of holding onto the senate but my prediction is based on caution but I do believe we could win a few more states then what I have on my current prediction map.

Last Edit: 2012-05-10 @ 13:45:23

 By: tmthforu94 (R-KS) 2012-05-11 @ 12:24:18 prediction Map
I'm a conservative Rep and even I am thinking about voting Donnelly, if that tells you how bad Mourdock is.

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2012-05-12 @ 02:18:47 prediction Map
I've already started helping Donnelly. I attended a reception he had last week, as well as my first Jefferson-Jackson dinner the next night, where Pelosi gave the keynote talk. As if Mourdock weren't bad enough, we also have Mike Pence running for governor. Your up north, right tmth?

 By: wingindy (D-IN) 2012-11-02 @ 11:27:13 prediction Map
Donnelly up 47-36 in today's Howey poll. It looks like the tea party lost the GOP another Senate seat. Six months on, still happy with my predictions. McCaskill should be a lean, and races in VA, MT & WI could go either way. In any case, Dems will hold onto control in the Seante.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2012 President 54/56 41/56 95/112 84.8% pie 9 0 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 14/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 191 189T
P 2012 Rep Primary 35/52 12/52 47/104 45.2% pie 10 - 83T
P 2010 Senate 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 9 15 116T
P 2010 Governor 30/37 15/37 45/74 60.8% pie 1 299 214T
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 22 1 41T
P 2008 Senate 32/33 24/33 56/66 84.8% pie 5 1 14T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 1 4 86T
P 2008 Dem Primary 45/52 21/52 66/104 63.5% pie 8 - 26T
P 2008 Rep Primary 43/49 11/49 54/98 55.1% pie 11 - 31T
Aggregate Predictions 371/416 209/416 580/832 69.7% pie


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