Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-04-29 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	9
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	8
Ind	2
Tos	7
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+1	+3	0	-2	-2	15	4	19	+1
Rep	0	+2	+2	-2	-1	-3	5	2	7	-1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	22	30	52
Republican	9	37	46
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

It appears as though IN Senator Lugar will loose in the upcoming primary to tea party favorite state treasurer Robert Mourdock. After the realization that the state has lost millions of dollars (not misappropriated, LOST), Mourdock will make a good target for former U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly in the general election. The Democrats could gain up to three seats, including King in Maine.

Member Comments

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-05-08 @ 01:01:00
The press has been writing Lugar's political obituary for weeks, especially since the Howey/DePauw poll was released a week ago, showing Mourdock leading 48-38%. http://howeypolitics.com/SiteImages/FileGallery/Howey_563.Depauw%20May%202012%20GOP%20statewide%20results.pdf The poll includes 76% Republicans, and only 2% Dem. or leaning Dem. Democrats however, have little to vote for on their side tomorrow - none of the statewide candidates are opposed. In my congressional district (Burton's seat), the Democratic candidate is unopposed. Meanwhile, there are 4 viable GOP candidates, and the winner will almost certainly win in the general election. In short, this poll far undercounts crossover voting. Few Democrats will cast a mischievous ballot for Mourdock in hopes of a Donnelly victory in the fall - most know that Mourdock may well win in November. Some Democrats have been voting for Lugar for three decades - Lugar has exceeded 66% in each of his past four elections. Due to crossover voting, the election will be much closer than this poll indicates. I predict Mourdock 51-49.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-05-08 @ 22:03:57
Boy was I off. Everyone I know that I talked to about it, regardless of party, voted for Lugar. That's my inside 465 viewpoint. The Howey-DePauw poll that had Lugar up 10 points (an understated lead, as it turns out) has Mourdock and Donnelly tied at 38.

By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-05-10 @ 13:38:18
Wing, Mourdock scares the piss out of me, and his tea party theme. I hope you plan to help Donnelly. Im feeling better about our chances of holding onto the senate but my prediction is based on caution but I do believe we could win a few more states then what I have on my current prediction map. Last Edit: 2012-05-10 @ 13:45:23

By: tmthforu94 (D-MO) 2012-05-11 @ 12:24:18
I'm a conservative Rep and even I am thinking about voting Donnelly, if that tells you how bad Mourdock is.

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-05-12 @ 02:18:47
I've already started helping Donnelly. I attended a reception he had last week, as well as my first Jefferson-Jackson dinner the next night, where Pelosi gave the keynote talk. As if Mourdock weren't bad enough, we also have Mike Pence running for governor. Your up north, right tmth?

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2012-11-02 @ 11:27:13
Donnelly up 47-36 in today's Howey poll. It looks like the tea party lost the GOP another Senate seat. Six months on, still happy with my predictions. McCaskill should be a lean, and races in VA, MT & WI could go either way. In any case, Dems will hold onto control in the Seante.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	36/56	89/112	79.5%	7	6	434	T	684
2020 Senate	33/35	21/35	54/70	77.1%	4	4	101	T	423
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	3	27	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	23/36	56/72	77.8%	3	21	94	T	372
2016 President	53/56	22/56	75/112	67.0%	21	1	440	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	17/34	45/68	66.2%	5	5	277	T	362
2016 Governor	7/12	2/12	9/24	37.5%	1	94	269	T	279
2014 Senate	34/36	21/36	55/72	76.4%	4	0	122	T	382
2014 Governor	27/36	17/36	44/72	61.1%	2	16	171	T	300
2012 President	54/56	41/56	95/112	84.8%	9	0	314	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	14/33	46/66	69.7%	1	191	189	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	35/52	12/52	47/104	45.2%	10	-	83	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	9	15	116	T	456
2010 Governor	30/37	15/37	45/74	60.8%	1	299	214	T	312
2008 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	22	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	24/33	56/66	84.8%	5	1	14	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	1	4	86	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	45/52	21/52	66/104	63.5%	8	-	26	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	43/49	11/49	54/98	55.1%	11	-	31	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	671/752	389/752	1060/1504	70.5%

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