Another realistic possibility.

There are too many elections that are still too close to call. So even though Akin and Mourdock really hurt the Republicans, they still have a chance at taking control of the U.S. Senate.

WTF how is moderate Tommy Thompson losing to Tammy Baldwin? IDK

The problem is many of these states have Republican candidates with low name recognition. NM, NJ, PA, MI, OH, and FL have that. In those states, the Democratic nominee hasn't reached 50%.

Republicans need to win at least one blue state: Brown (MA), McMahon (CT), Wilson (NM), Lingle (HI), and Hoekstra (MI). PA is a swing state in my book, but Tom Smith has a far more difficult path to victory than the other 5 Republicans.

Out of those 5 Republicans listed above, I actually think McMahon has the best chance at winning. Obama's approval rating has imploded in CT and he will likely win the state by 10-12 points. Wilson has a good chance because she is known as a moderate in the tilt blue state of New Mexico. Brown is an excellent U.S. Senator, but MA might be too much of a blue state.

Although Missouri and North Dakota aren't looking good, McMahon surprisingly has a chance at winning. Quin. and Rasmussen both had her up three points!

Meanwhile, Thompson looks pretty good in Wisconsin. Hoekstra is closing in on Stabenow in Michigan.

I'm still hoping for a Republican landslide in 2012. I don't think getting to 60 votes is realistic. In this map, Republicans would win all the senate elections that are currently a toss up, which includes Hawaii and Massachusetts. This gives Republicans 56 votes. That's way short of a filibuster proof senate majority.

But I do think 58 would be good enough for President Romney because he would only need Angus King and Joe Manchin to get to 60 votes. Besides, a landslide election would scare most incumbent Democrats and may tempt them to vote for Romney's agenda. But to get to 58 or even 60 votes, these states would need to become competitive (in order):

1. Pennsylvania: Bob Casey Jr. hasn't reached 50% yet, so he is somewhat vulnerable. But right now, the election isn't a toss up because Republicans haven't recruited anyone great. The establishment has endorsed businessman Steve Welch, who has never ran for public office before. Casey isn't a moderate and he's not pro-life. If the Republican nominee can raise enough money to expose Casey's record, he could lose.

2. Michigan: Another Democrat who hasn't reached 50% in the polls is Debbie Stabenow. The problem is Pete Hoekstra's SB ad was terrible and he wasted a lot of money. The Auto Bailout is somewhat popular statewide (52% according to PPP). This means Obama should win here, even in a landslide. Stabenow should also win, but Hoekstra could get some cross-over votes for supporting the bailout.

3. Connecticut: Chris Shays, former U.S. Congressman, is a moderate. He would need $15-
$20 million to win the primary and the general election. That's a tall order. McMahon, a billionaire, is unpopular statewide. Better advertising by her in this election cycle could help her win.

4. NJ: Bob Menendez is the last Democrat whose under 50%. State Senator Joe Kyrillos would need $5-$10 million to win this election.

5. NY: Kirsten Gillibrand is safe right now. But her record of flip-flopping hasn't been exposed yet. In 2010, Republican nominee Joe DioGuardi spent $3 million and received just 35% of the vote. Gilibrand spent $13 million that year, and has raised $8 million so far in this election cycle. Bob Turner, U.S. Congressman, would need to spend $15-$25 million to win here.

Angus King likely to win Maine. Right now it's a toss up because i don't know which Republicans and Democrats will file.

Right now, this is the best Republicans could do if Romney were to defeat Obama 53%-46%. I'll go over all the elections that aren't safe. Here are the elections that are currently a toss up. Republicans would win these seats:

Hawaii: Obama's second home state. He got 71% here in 2008! Lingle will need a lot of cross-over. Her best hope is that Case and Hirono get into an ugly primary, which is only two months before the general election. Lingle is a good fundraiser and would be the last 50%-50% Republican to win in this Romney win.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown is up by double digits right now. However, he hasn't reached the 50% threshold, so he's not safe. Mandel is a good fundraiser. Yes, he's flawed, but so is Brown b/c he has a very liberal record that will be exposed. Mandel, with higher name recognition, can and will defeat Brown by a tiny margin of 50%-50%.

New Mexico: Yes, I agree the state is trending Democrat and polls show Obama is safe. However, he won't win by a big margin. After all, Bush did win the state in 2004 with 49%. Wilson only needs a few Obama voters. You know, she did represent a swing district in congress for like ten years. She has the ability to raise a lot of money. Wilson could win by a tiny 50%-50% margin.

Massachusetts: Don't write off Scott Brown!!! His victory in 2010 was an extraordinary miracle. He has $12 million on hand, twice that of Warren. Both of them are fundraising machines. Romney won't win this state. However, he's probably do at least slightly better than McCain and Bush. He might get 40% of the vote, which is good in Massachusetts. Brown needs a lot of cross over Obama voters. He'll win by a few thousand votes in 50%-50% result.

Wisconsin: I predict former Governor Tommy Thompson will win the Republican primary. Keep in mind, he's more electable than his two opponents. I think he would take away some social conservative Democrats and some moderate union voters. Baldwin, like congresswoman Berkley in Nevada, was popular in a safe seat and piled up a liberal record. Obama defeats Romney here 54%-46%. Walker is defeated in recall election 53%-47%. Thompson defeats Baldwin 51%-49%.

Missouri: Republican nominee, either Akin or Steelman, will raise money necessary to expose McCaskill's record. She does have moderate tendencies though. I'll admit that much, but she voted for most of Obama's agenda. So she may get some cross-over, but Obama will likely lose by a double digit margin. Romney defeats Obama 54%-46%. Republican nominee defeats McCaskill 51%-49%.

Nevada: Dean Heller, incumbent, is far from safe but has an advantage over the likely Democratic nominee Shelley Berkley. Why? In congress, Heller was popular in a swing district and has some moderate votes. Berkley was popular in a safe Democratic seat. She has a liberal record. Romney wins Nevada and Heller outperforms him defeating Berkley 53%-47%.

Virginia: Tim Kaine is not a moderate and will not get any cross-over. Allen's controversies were exposed in 2006, and he only lost by a few thousand votes. Allen and Romney will by a margin of 53%-47%.

North Dakota: No polls. Democratic nominee hasn't run for public office since 2000. Berg is popular. McCain won the state in 2008 with 53%, while Bush got 63%. In 2010, Berg defeated longtime liberal incumbent Earl Pomeroy with 55%. So there's a lot of cross-over here. Considering the fact Obama's approval rating here in 2011 was 36%, significantly below average. Romney would defeat Obama 60%-40%, but Heidi would get a lot of cross over vote, but Berg defeats her 53%-47%.

Indiana: I predict Richard Murdock will defeat Lugar by a double digit margin in the primary. Obama's approval rating in 2011 was 40%. That was below average. Romney would win 58%-42%. Joe Donelly is popular and will get some Romney voters. Murdock wins 54%-46%.

Montana: Jon Tester is another fake moderate Democrat. He will get some Romney voters, but not enough to win. Obama's approval rating is significantly below average to comparison to the rest of the country. I think Romney will beat Obama 58%-42%. Rehberg will defeat Tester 54%-46%.

Florida: If Romney wins, he wins this state and Connie Mack defeats Johnson, the incumbent. His approval rating like many others hasn't reached 50%. He has a liberal record whether you want to admit it or not. He's not a moderate. Mediscare will not work. Paul Ryan's plan will SAVE medicare. For now toss up. Mack defeats him Nelson 55%-45%.