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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-18 Version:5

Prediction Map
Jerseyrules Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
Jerseyrules Map


Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep24
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem7
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind2
 
Tos9
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem000-8-6-14707-14
Rep+8+7+150-1-1729+14
Ind0+1+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic73037
Republican243761
Independent202
pie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: Liberalrocks (D-CA) 2012-07-18 @ 23:03:58 prediction Map
Obviously several of these state predictions I take issue with, but the one that is like a zit on a nose is California.
I am wondering why/how you feel Dianne Feinstein a mulitple term powerful incumbent in a mega democratic state is going to lose to Elizabeth Emken, a newcomer and virtual unknown to politics? Emken has no money and is not known for her "moderate" political positions needed to appeal to the democratic leaning electorate of the state? Feinstein is proably in the top 5 most "safe" senators running for reelection. The last polls out had her almost 20pts ahead. Boxer beat off a more serious challenge in 2010 and even that was not completely razor thin, at a 10 point victory.

Last Edit: 2012-07-18 @ 23:17:08

 By: Ernest (I-SC) 2012-07-26 @ 02:20:30 prediction Map
Minnesota is another egregious bit of hackery here. The polls indicate that Klobuchar klobbers Kurt. It's a safe D seat this cycle with the only question being will Amy have an over 20% margin of victory or not.

The GOP has an outside shot at getting to 60 if King caucuses with them, but that requires them to win every seat they have even a slim hope of winning. Neither California nor Minnesota are available this year.

 By: Jerseyrules (L-CA) 2012-08-07 @ 15:29:17 prediction Map
Feinstein, according to prolong info I got several months ago (when I made this) indicated Feinstein was under 50% in all matchups, indicating severe vulnerability for an incumbent. MN is a wishful thinking scenario, as I like the GOP nominee as he's a Ronulan. Another note in CA is that I was under the impression Campbell or Fiorina would enter the race, and this was a Campbell v. Boxer matchup. I'm going to change this later, but I believe the rest is pretty reasonable. HI is close (really hoping for a Lingle win there), as is NJ and PA is also surprisingly close. But I like Casey. Think of this more as an endorsement map than anything else for now.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 34/56 12/56 46/112 41.1% pie 11 296 758
P 2012 Senate 17/33 4/33 21/66 31.8% pie 5 111 339T
P 2012 Governor 6/11 3/11 9/22 40.9% pie 3 153 221T
P 2012 Rep Primary 14/52 6/52 20/104 19.2% pie 13 - 193T
P 2011 Governor 2/4 2/4 4/8 50.0% pie 1 51 79T
Aggregate Predictions 73/156 27/156 100/312 32.1% pie



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