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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-24 Version:19

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos7
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+1+1-3-4-712214-6
Rep+3+4+7-10-1639+6
Ind+10+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic153045
Republican163753
Independent202
pie

Analysis

2012 US Senate Election.
Solid Democratic
VT(Sanders-I)31D
DE(Carper-D)32D
NY(Gillibrand-D)33D
MD(Cardin-D)34D
MN(Klobuchar-D)35D
RI(Whitehouse-D)36D
CA(Feinstein-D)37D
Likely Democratic
ME(King-I)38D
WV(Manchin-D)39D
WA(Cantwell-D)40D
PA(Casey-D)41D
NJ(Menendez-D)42D
Lean Democratic
MI(Stabenow-D)43D
OH(Brown-D)44D
HI(Hirono-D)45D
CT(Murphy-D)46D
NM(Heinrich-D)47D
Tossup Democratic
WI(Baldwin-D)48D-faces Hovde-R in the November General Election.
FL(Nelson-D)49D-narrowly defeats Mack-R.
VA(Kaine-D)50D-narrowly defeats Allen-R.
MA(Warren-D)51D-narrowly defeats Brown-R.
Seats to watch.
IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R)
MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R)
NV(Berkley-D vs Heller-R)
MO(McCaskill-D vs Brunner-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R)
Republicans win
AZ(Flake-R)38R
NE(Fischer-R)39R
TX(Cruz-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R
MS(Wicker-R)42R
TN(Corker-R)43R
WY(Barrasso-R)44R


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-24 @ 14:24:15 prediction Map
The 12 battleground US Senate Races for 2012 is
OH(Brown-D vs Mandel-R)
NM(Heinrich-D vs Wilson-R)
WI(Baldwin-D vs Hovde-R)
FL(Nelson-D vs Mack-R)
VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R)
MA(Warren-D vs Brown-R)
IN(Donnelly-D vs Mourdock-R)
MT(Tester-D vs Rehberg-R)
NV(Berkley-D vs Heller-R)
MO(McCaskill-D vs Brunner-R)
ND(Heitkamp-D vs Berg-R)
AZ(Carmona-D vs Flake-R)
Democrats are favored to win
HI(Hirono-D benefits from Obama-D coattails).
CT(Murphy-D benefits from Obama-D coattails and Shays-R is refusing to endorse McMahon-R).
WA(Cantwell-D benefits from Obama-D coattails).
NJ(Menendez-D benefits from Obama-D coattails.)
MI(Stabenow-D has a weak GOP challenger-Hoekstra-R-who is more unpopular than Romney-R).(MI has a lot of Stabenow/Romney voters.)
PA(Casey-D is very popular in PA- he outperforms Obama-D in Murtha Territory.)
WV(Manchin-D is personally popular in Red WV)
ME(King-I)wins a 3 way Race against a generic DEM and generic REP- likely to caucus with the Democrats.
MN(Klobuchar-D is very popular in MN-likely to outperform Obama-D in the MN-1,MN-2,MN-3,MN-6,MN-7,and MN-8 CD.(Outside the St Paul/Minneapolis Area).
CA(Feinstein-D),NY(Gillibrand-D),MD(Cardin-D),RI(Whitehouse-D),DE(Carper-D) and VT(Sanders-I) are safe.
45 Seats plus (OH,NM,WI,FL,VA,and MA).
Republicans are strongly favored to win
NE(Fischer-R defeats Kerrey-D),TX(Cruz-R or Dewhurst-R),UT(Hatch-R),MS(Wicker-R),TN(Corker-R),and WY(Barrasso-R),
43 Seats plus (AZ,ND,IN,MT,MO,and NV).


 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-24 @ 18:28:33 prediction Map
2012
Obama-D wins re-election
Democrats maintain the majority in the US Senate.-(King-ME,Warren-MA,Baldwin-WI,and Kaine-VA)
Democrats lose Tester-MT and McCaskill-MO plus OPEN seat in NE and ND.
2014.
Democrats are vulnerable in
AK(Begich-D is vulnerable against a non controversial Republican).
AR(Unlike Lincoln-D in 2010, Pryor-D is the Joe Manchin/John Breaux of AR).
IA(If Harkin-D runs again-He will face either Latham-R or King-R-He crushes both of them-If he retires- Tom Vilsack-D vs Steve King-R).
LA(A Landrieu-D vs Jindal-R matchup would be worth watching).
MI(Assuming Levin-D retires- Gary Peters-D vs Candace Miller-R)
MN(Franken-D vs either Pawlenty-R or Bachmann-R).
MT(Assuming Baucus-D retires-Tester-D comeback- Schweitzer-D focuses on 2016.
NC(Hagan-D will face Ellmers-R)
SD(Johnson-D vs Rounds-R,Herseth-Sandlin-D vs Rounds-R,Johnson-D vs Noem-R,or Herseth Sandlin-D vs Noem)
WV(Rockefeller-D vs Moore Capito-R)-Tossup. (Rahall-D vs Moore Capito-R)-Leans Republican.

 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-25 @ 00:03:05 prediction Map
Democrats win
VT(Sanders-I)31D
DE(Carper-D)32D
MD(Cardin-D)33D
NY(Gillibrand-D)34D
MN(Klobuchar-D)35D
RI(Whitehouse-D)36D
CA(Feinstein-D)37D
ME(King-I)38D
WV(Manchin-D)39D
PA(Casey-D)40D
WA(Cantwell-D)41D
NJ(Menendez-D)42D
MI(Stabenow-D)43D
HI(Hirono-D)44D
CT(Murphy-D)45D
OH(Brown-D)46D
NM(Heinrich-D)47D
WI(Baldwin-D)48D(faces Hovde-R)
MA(Warren-D)49D
Republicans win
WY(Barrasso-R)38R
TN(Corker-R)39R
MS(Wicker-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R
TX(Cruz-R)42R
NE(Fischer-R)43R
AZ(Flake-R)44R
IN(Mourdock-R)45R
ND(Berg-R)46R
NV(Heller-R)47R
MO(Brunner-R)48R
FL(Mack-R)49R
MT(Rehberg-R)50R
VA(Allen-R or Kaine-D)
3 Factors resulting in Democrats retaining control of the US Senate.
1)Tea Party in WI defeating Thompson-R in the primary.
2)Macaca Part 2 in VA
3)Obama coattails in MA.



User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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