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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-29 Version:21

Prediction Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction KeyConfidence Key
Prediction KeyConfidence Key

Confidence Map
nkpolitics1279 Map


Prediction States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem17
 
pie
Rep14
 
Ind2
 
Non17
 

Confidence States Won
17 |
33 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep9
 
Ind2
 
Tos7
 
Non17
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2-3-3-612315-4
Rep+3+3+6-20-2538+4
Ind+10+10-1-11010


Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic173047
Republican143751
Independent202
pie

Analysis

2012 US Senate Election.
States Democrats are favored to win by a double digit margin.
VT(Sanders-I)31D
DE(Carper-D)32D
NY(Gillibrand-D)33D
MD(Cardin-D)34D
RI(Whitehouse-D)35D
CA(Feinstein-D)36D
ME(King-I)37D
WV(Manchin-D)38D
MN(Klobuchar-D)39D
PA(Casey-D)40D
WA(Cantwell-D)41D
NJ(Menendez-D)42D
MI(Stabenow-D)43D
CT(Murphy-D)44D
HI(Hirono-D)45D
States Republicans are favored to win by a double digit margin.
WY(Barrasso-R)38R
TN(Corker-R)39R
MS(Wicker-R)40R
UT(Hatch-R)41R
TX(Cruz-R)42R
NE(Fischer-R)43R


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2012-07-29 @ 14:04:11 prediction Map
The 12 battleground states for 2012 are in AZ,FL,IN,MA,MO,MT,NV,NM,ND,OH,VA,and WI.
Democrats are favored to win OH(Brown-D) and NM(Heinrich-D) by a high single digit margin. 47D
Republicans are favored to win AZ(Flake-R),MO(Brunner-R) and NV(Heller-R) by a high single digit margin. 46R
The Tossup States are FL,IN,MA,MT,ND,VA,and WI.
Democrats are likely to win MA(Warren-D) and WI(Baldwin-D)49D
Republicans are likely to win FL(Mack-R)expect Rick Scott/Marco Rubio to help Mack-R unseat Nelson-D. Mack-R also benefits from his father and grandfather.47R
IN(Mourdock-R) is more conservative than the average IN Republican- Quayle,Coats,Daniels,and Pence. Donnelly-D is a centrist in the mode of Bayh. Mourdock-R will benefit from Romney-R/Pence-R coattails. 48R
MT(Rehberg-R) is a long time Statewide Elected official. He was Racicot's first Lt Governor,Ran for US Senate in 1996 against Baucus-D,Elected to the US House(MT-At Large CD) in 2000, Re-elected in 2002,2004,2006,2008,and 2010 by a landslide margin. Tester-D is a first termer who narrowly won in the 2006 Democratic Wave against a scandal plagued Republican Incumbent Conrad Burns. Rehberg-R benefits from Romney-R/Hill-R coattails. 49R
ND(Berg-R is a first term at Large US House Member Elected during the 2010 Republican wave and a former Speaker of State House). Heitkamp-D is a former State Attorney General during the 1990's A Heitkamp-D victory will be a surprise. 50R
Other than Obama/Biden-D winning,King-ME caucusing with the Democrats. VA(Kaine-D vs Allen-R) decides which party controls the US Senate.
Democrats are going to win MA(Warren-D defeats Brown-R) and WI(Baldwin-D defeats Hovde-R). Purple/Red State Democratic Incumbents -Brown(D-OH) and Manchin(D-WI) are strongly favored to win. Democratic Senate Nominees in OPEN Seats in HI,CT,and NM will benefit from Obama-D coattails.
Looking at the highly vulnerable Democratic Incumbents likely to go down in the Romney-R wave. Nelson(D-FL),McCaskill(D-MO),and Tester(D-MT). McCaskill(D-MO) is in the worse situation. She is trailing all 3 of her GOP challengers including the most unelectable by a high single digit margin. Tester(D-MT) is in a statistical tie race against Rehberg(R-MT). Last Rassmussen Poll showed race narrowing from a 10 point Rehberg lead to 2 point Rehberg lead. FL is a pure Tossup.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2014 Senate
P 2014 Governor
P 2012 President 52/56 43/56 95/112 84.8% pie 111 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 21/33 52/66 78.8% pie 27 38 74T
Aggregate Predictions 83/89 64/89 147/178 82.6% pie



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