Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-07 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	12
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	9
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	0	+1	-2	-1	-3	13	5	18	-2
Rep	+2	+1	+3	-1	-1	-2	5	3	8	+1
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	19	30	49
Republican	12	37	49
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

Who the Independents caucus with (King from ME has been saying he won't caucus with either party, which if I'm not mistaken he can't do; likely he'll side with whoever comes out on top) and who the VP is may well determine who controls the Senate.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	29/56	79/112	70.5%	3	1	280	T	678
2012 President	54/56	29/56	83/112	74.1%	14	1	640	T	760
2012 Senate	27/33	9/33	36/66	54.5%	1	30	297	T	343
2008 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	59	1	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	31/33	12/33	43/66	65.2%	1	21	303	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	1	21	183	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	226/245	128/245	354/490	72.2%

Links

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