Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-03-23 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	25
Rep	6
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	5
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+2	+5	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+4
Rep	0	+1	+1	-3	-2	-5	4	1	5	-4
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	25	30	55
Republican	6	37	43
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

WA: Cantwell d. Baumgartner
CA: Feinstein d. Emken
NV: Berkley d. Heller
MT: Tester d. Rehberg
WY: Barasso d. Carter (?)
UT: Hatch d. Ashdown
AZ: Carmona d. Flake
NM: Balderas d. Wilson
ND: Heitkamp d. Berg
NE: Stenberg d. Hassebrook
TX: Cruz d. Sadler
MN: Klobuchar d. Arwood
MO: McCaskill d. Brunner
WI: Baldwin d. Thompson
MI: Stabenow d. Durant
IN: Donnelly d. Mourdock
OH: Brown d. Mandel
TN: Corker d. Tanner (?)
MS: Wicker d. Gore
NY: Gillibrand d. Maragos
PA: Casey d. Smith
NJ: Menendez d. Kyrillos
WV: Manchin d. Raese
MD: Cardin d. Bongino
DE: Carper d. Wade
VA: Kaine d. Allen
FL: Nelson d. Mack
VT: Sanders d. MacGovern
MA: Warren d. Brown
CT: Murphy d. Shays
RI: Whitehouse d. Hinckley
ME: King d. Dunlap d. Summers

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	50/56	41/56	91/112	81.3%	6	219	466	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	6	228	74	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	7/11	16/22	72.7%	2	259	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	37/52	18/52	55/104	52.9%	18	-	62		231
Aggregate Predictions	127/152	87/152	214/304	70.4%

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