Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:2

Prediction Map

Du_Chateau Map

Prediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Du_Chateau Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	24
Rep	7
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	4
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+3	+4	0	-1	-1	15	5	20	+3
Rep	0	+1	+1	-1	-3	-4	5	1	6	-3
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	24	30	54
Republican	7	37	44
Independent	2	0	2

pie

Analysis

My final senatoral predication. Arizona, Conn., Indiana, Montana, Nevada, and North Dakota could go either way though.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	51/56	28/56	79/112	70.5%		2	6	637	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	19/35	48/70	68.6%		1	4	337	T	423
2018 Senate	30/35	15/35	45/70	64.3%		3	3	392	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	15/36	46/72	63.9%		2	11	285	T	372
2016 President	44/56	22/56	66/112	58.9%		7	0	614	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	16/34	44/68	64.7%		3	5	302	T	362
2014 Senate	28/36	17/36	45/72	62.5%		1	42	282	T	382
2014 Governor	26/36	13/36	39/72	54.2%		1	42	253	T	300
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%		2	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	12/33	44/66	66.7%		2	1	211	T	343
2010 Senate	24/37	9/37	33/74	44.6%		1	165	441	T	456
2008 President	53/56	35/56	88/112	78.6%		4	6	276	T	1,505
2004 President	52/56	22/56	74/112	66.1%		19	6	1527	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	484/562	265/562	749/1124	66.6%

Links

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