Election 2012 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-29 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	23
Rep	8
Ind	2
Non	17

Confidence States Won

		17 \|	33 \|	50 \|
Dem	17
Rep	6
Ind	2
Tos	8
Non	17

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+2	+4	0	-2	-2	15	4	19	+2
Rep	0	+2	+2	-2	-2	-4	4	2	6	-2
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	-1	-1	1	0	1	0

Predicted Senate Control (113th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	23	30	53
Republican	8	37	45
Independent	2	0	2

Analysis

I'm now projecting a 55-45 Democratic Senate, the hurricane might cause some disruptions in Connecticut, Massachusetts, or Virginia, but such things aren't really predictable, so I'm going leave them out of the projection.

Montana's a real tossup, but even Rasmussen has it tied , that's decent evidence that in spite of conventional wisdom, Tester may well have a small lead over Rehberg, that's one of a small number of races I think we may not know the winner of after waking up Wednesday morning.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	3	6	130	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	4	274	T	423
2016 President	48/56	29/56	77/112	68.8%	2	25	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	0	164	T	362
2014 Senate	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	3	6	231	T	382
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	4	14	47	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	6	8	144	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	12	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	91	T	312
2008 President	54/56	38/56	92/112	82.1%	13	1	178	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	7	1	96	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	25	3	88	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	11/36	45/72	62.5%	3	15	207	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	512/549	330/549	842/1098	76.7%

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