Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-04-22 Version:70

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	20
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	15

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	15

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	0	-3	-3	16	2	18	-1
Rep	0	+3	+3	-1	-1	-2	11	1	12	+1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	20	32	52
Republican	15	30	45
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 03:15:30
Republicans are going to hold onto GA and KY.<br /> Democrats are going to hold onto LA,CO,NH,IA and MI <br /> The Republican takeover states are in SD,WV,and MT<br /> The Tossup states are in. AR,AK,and NC <br /> Republicans need to win all 3(AR,AK,and NC) along with SD,WV,and MT and hold onto KY and GA. <br /> A Republican loss in either AR,AK,and or NC means Democrats will hold onto the US Senate. <br /> Democrats will win IA,NH,and CO -47D <br /> MI and LA-runoff are likely to go into the Democratic collumn. 49D <br /> The 50th seat for Democrats is AR. <br /> Both sides are going to have 48 seats <br /> D- NH,IA,CO,and MI<br /> R- KY,GA,MT,WV,and SD <br /> The Tossup states are in AK,AR,LA-runoff,and NC. <br /> Democrats need to win open DEM seat in IA- weak Republican field, and MI- Republican nominee is overrated, plus save vulnerable incumbents in LA- make sure Landrieu-D gets over 50 percent of the popular vote in November to avoid a runoff, or wins the runoff-tie Cassidy to Vitter and McCallister. Udall-CO and Shaheen-NH are facing overrattred GOP challengers. that leaves Pryor-AR,Begich-AK, and Hagan-NC. <br /> Democratic goal 1 is to re-elect Vulnerable incumbents in NH,CO,NC,AK,and AR plus open seat in IA. or hold onto open seats in IA and MI, plus re-elect Vulnerable incumbents in NH,CO,NC,and AK. <br /> Democratic goal 2 is winning the December runoff in GA and LA. <br /> Democrats win NH,IA,CO,and MI, but lose AR,AK and NC .<br /> Republicans lose GA and KY but pick up SD,WV,and MT. +1R (Republicans have to win AR,AK,NC,MI,and LA runoff) Democrats will hold onto NH,IA,CO,and MI and LA. <br /> Republicans hold onto GA and KY but pick up SD,WV,and MT +3R (Republicans have to win AR,AK,and NC) <br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 09:53:22
Democrats keep control of the US Senate. <br /> During the 1994,2002,and 2010 Republican leaning midterm election no more than 2 Vulnerable Democratic incumbents lost re-election. <br /> Walsh-MT and Hagan-NC are likely to be the ones to lose re-election. <br /> Looking at the open Democratic seats(IA,MI,SD,and WV) Democrats will hold onto IA and MI, lose SD and WV. <br /> Republicans have to hold onto GA and KY plus MS-if McDaniels wins the nomination and makes a gaffe in the general election. <br /> Win SD,WV,MT,NC,AR,and AK. <br /> Democratic incumbents in. AK,AR,and LA will win re-election. <br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 14:32:06
Republicans will win MS(McDaniel-R), GA(Broun-R) and KY(McConnell-R) 45R plus SD(Rounds-R),WV(Capito-R) and MT(Daines-R) 48R <br /> Democrats will win NH(Shaheen-D),IA(Braley-D),and CO(Udall-D) 47D <br /> Tossup states are MI,NC,AK,LA,and AR. <br /> During previous GOP wave elections, no more than 2 vulnerable Democratic incumbents lost re-election. I am predicting that Democratic incumbents in MT and NC are likely to go down, Democratic incumbents in AK,AR,and LA will survive. Democrats win open seats in IA and MI.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 15:32:14
Solid Democratic states are <br /> DE,RI,HI,NM,MA,NJ,and IL- 41D <br /> Likely Democratic states are <br /> OR,MN,and VA- 44D <br /> Lean Democratic states are <br /> NH,IA,and CO- 47D <br /> Tossup Democratic states are <br /> MI,NC,and AK<br /> AR,LA,and AK <br /> Solid Republican states are <br /> AL,ID,WY,Both OK,ME,NE,TX,Both SC, KS,TN, and SD. 43R <br /> Likely Republican states are <br /> MS and WV - 45R <br /> Lean Republican states are <br /> GA and MT- 47R <br /> Tossup Republican states are <br /> KY and AR- 49R <br /> A Grimes victory in KY means, Republicans have to hold onto GA, pick up SD,WV,MT,AR,AK,NC,and MI or LA runoff. <br /> The 50/51st Republican seat is NC and LA-runoff, NC,and AK, or NC and MI.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 15:57:26
States Democrats win with over 60 percent of the popular vote.<br /> DE,HI,IL,MA,NJ,and RI- 40D <br /> States Democrats win with over 55 percent of the popular vote. <br /> MN,NH,NM,OR,and VA- 45D <br /> States Democrats win by a high single digit margin.<br /> AK,CO,IA,and LA-runoff - 49D <br /> States Democrats win by a narrow margin. <br /> AR,MI,and NC- 52D <br /> Republicans win GA,KY,MT and WV by a single digit margin. The rest the Republicans win by a double digit margin. <br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 16:48:19
Democrats will have over 60 seats in 2017. <br /> 2014- they loses SD,WV,and MT, Republicans hold onto GA and KY. 52D 48R <br /> 2016- Democrats hold onto CO and NV, pick up <br /> IL- Could Robin Kelly-D unseat Kirk-R ? <br /> WI- Kind-D or Burke-D, Feingold-D. focuses on challenging Hillary in 2016. <br /> PA- Sestak-D or Kane-D 55D <br /> AZ-Giffords Husband-D . 56D <br /> AR- Beebe-D 57D <br /> IA- Vilsack-D or Culver-D 58D <br /> KY- Beshear-D 59D <br /> MO- Nixon-D 60D <br /> NH- Hassan-D 61D <br /> <br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 18:18:27
Republican firewall states are <br /> AL,ID,KS,ME,MS,NE,OK-1, OK-2,SC-1,SC-2, TN,TX,and WY- 43R <br /> Democratic Firewall states are <br /> DE,MA,RI,NJ,HI,IL,NM,VA,OR,and MN- 44D <br /> Lean Republican states are <br /> SD,WV,and MT- 46R <br /> Lean Democratic states are <br /> NH,IA,and CO- 47D <br /> Tossup races are AK,AR,GA,KY,LA,MI,and NC. <br /> Democrats win AK,AR,and NC- Democrats keep the US Senate. <br /> MI -48<br /> AK- 49<br /> LA- 50 <br /> or<br /> NC- 48<br /> AR- 49<br /> LA- 50 <br /> or<br /> GA- 48<br /> KY- 49<br /> LA- 50 <br />

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 20:16:32
Democrats trade SD and WV for KY and GA(Handel-R becomes the Republican nominee) <br /> Democrats hold onto AK,AR,CO,IA,LA,MI,NH,and NC <br /> MT race is worth watching. <br /> Republican majority is <br /> KY- McConnell-R has to win re-election. 44R <br /> SD- Rounds-R 45R <br /> WV- Capito-R 46R <br /> MT- Daines-R 47R <br /> AR- Cotton-R 48R <br /> MI- Land-R 49R <br /> Plus the December run offs in GA and LA. 51R <br /> A net Democratic gain is <br /> Democrats lose SD but pick up GA and KY.<br /> Democrats hold onto <br /> WV- Tennant-D <br /> MT- Walsh-D <br /> LA-runoff- Landrieu-D <br /> MI- Peters-D <br /> NC- Hagan-D <br /> AK-Begich-D <br /> AR-Pryor-D <br /> CO-Udall-D <br /> IA- Braley-D <br /> Democrats will have a net loss of 2-3 seats. <br /> Republicans hold onto KY and GA, pick up SD,WV,and MT. <br /> Democrats keep AK,AR,CO,IA,LA,MI,and NC.

By: nkpolitics1279 (D-MA) 2014-04-22 @ 23:28:24
McConnell(R-KY) is the only incumbent that is going to lose re-election in 2014. <br /> Begich(D-AK) wins re-election against Sullivan-R 46<br /> Pryor(D-AR) wins re-election against Cotton-R 47<br /> Udall(D-CO) wins re-election against Gardner-R 48 <br /> Landrieu(D-LA) wins re-election against Cassidy-R 49<br /> Shaheen(D-NH) wins re-election against Brown-R 50 <br /> Hagan(D-NC) wins re-election against Bannon-R 51 <br /> Republicans win open seats in OK-special(Lankford-R), NE(Sasse-R), SD(Rounds-R) and WV(Capito-R) 45R <br /> Democrats win open seats in IA(Braley-D) and MI(Peters-D) 53D <br /> That leaves GA and MT. <br /> GA- Nunn-D defeats Broun,Gingrey,Kingston and Handel-R. Perdue-R defeats Nunn-D. Democrats best hope is for Broun-R or Handel-R to win the GOP nomination. <br /> MT-Walsh-D has to face a tough primary against Bohlinger-D and general against Daines-R <br /> Democrats win GA and MT. 55D <br /> 2014 Freshmen class is <br /> 92)Lankford(R-OK) <br /> 93)Capito(R-WV) <br /> 94)Braley(D-IA) <br /> 95)Peters(D-MI) <br /> 96)Rounds(R-SD) <br /> 97)Nunn(D-GA) <br /> 98)Grimes(D-KY) <br /> 99)McDaniel(R-MS) <br /> 100)Sasse(R-NE)

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	20	4	10	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	221	4	164	T	362
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	97	16	42	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	16/36	44/72	61.1%	1	325	171	T	300
2012 President	52/56	43/56	95/112	84.8%	111	1	314	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%	27	38	74	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	227/251	161/251	388/502	77.3%