Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-07-19 Version:13

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	14
Rep	22
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-4	-7	13	1	14	-7
Rep	+3	+4	+7	0	0	0	12	3	15	+7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	14	32	46
Republican	22	30	52
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis

Prediction: Control in the United States Senate will be decided in Alaska. Mark Begich is popular, but Alaska is very much a red state. It is the Begich family name against the beloved GOP in The Last Frontier. The most pleasant surprise so far this cycle is how Joni Ernst has turned what was a surefire win for Democrats in Iowa into a true Toss Up. Bruce Braley needs to watch his tongue.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	32/35	28/35	60/70	85.7%	5	5	48	T	305
2022 Governor	33/36	27/36	60/72	83.3%	4	5	66	T	272
2020 President	52/56	45/56	97/112	86.6%	5	6	103	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	16/35	47/70	67.1%	3	4	358	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	6	10	T	293
2018 Senate	31/35	27/35	58/70	82.9%	1	3	15	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	23/36	53/72	73.6%	1	5	164	T	372
2016 President	50/56	33/56	83/112	74.1%	24	1	114	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	24/34	55/68	80.9%	16	1	2	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	5/12	16/24	66.7%	8	2	25	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	132	72	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	25/36	60/72	83.3%	35	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	38	0	15	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	40	17	T	153
Aggregate Predictions	382/423	283/423	665/846	78.6%