Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-24 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	17
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+1	+2	-3	-2	-5	13	3	16	-3
Rep	+3	+2	+5	-2	-1	-3	10	2	12	+2
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	18	32	50
Republican	17	30	47
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
42	29	13

Analysis

I feel a shocker coming. Rounds in SD will continue to bleed votes, and he and Pressler will split the center and right, allowing the Dems to hold the seat. Nunn in GA will hit 50% to avoid a runoff, and undecideds in KY are moving towards Grimes. Landrieu will prevail in a December runoff. She always does.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	2	47	502	T	684
2020 Senate	29/35	21/35	50/70	71.4%	1	103	274	T	423
2020 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	1	105	211	T	293
2018 Senate	29/35	20/35	49/70	70.0%	2	54	272	T	483
2018 Governor	30/36	14/36	44/72	61.1%	1	56	311	T	372
2016 President	47/56	17/56	64/112	57.1%	3	23	628	T	678
2016 Senate	28/34	12/34	40/68	58.8%	2	28	345	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	1/12	9/24	37.5%	2	28	269	T	279
2014 Senate	29/36	13/36	42/72	58.3%	4	11	308	T	382
2014 Governor	28/36	10/36	38/72	52.8%	6	11	263	T	300
2012 President	52/56	37/56	89/112	79.5%	1	166	508	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	342/403	186/403	528/806	65.5%