Election 2014 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2014-10-30 Version:4

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	23
Ind	1
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	19
Ind	1
Tos	5
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-4	-9	11	1	12	-9
Rep	+5	+4	+9	-1	0	-1	11	3	14	+8
Ind	+1	0	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	12	32	44
Republican	23	30	53
Independent	1	2	3

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
52	33	19

Analysis

Note: Louisiana and Georgia will go to runoffs, so this prediction assumes both Republicans will win in the runoffs.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire chosen to flip as a little brave gambit. I feel the least confident about it switching over.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	49/56	40/56	89/112	79.5%	1	249	434	T	684
2016 President	52/56	35/56	87/112	77.7%	2	159	35	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	135	164	T	362
2014 Senate	33/36	19/36	52/72	72.2%	4	5	177	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	11/36	42/72	58.3%	4	2	211	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	195/218	123/218	318/436	72.9%