Alaska - Sullivan has held a small lead in most polls over Begich, though there have been a few showing Begich in the lead. But in this year, and in Alaska, I don’t see Begich as favored. Toss-Up R. :: Montana - Daines will win this in a walk. I don’t have him breaking 60%, but he easily could. Curtis is a terrible nominee, and a hateful person. Safe R. :: South Dakota - The Democratic play for this seat has only ensured that Rounds will finish with a better percentage than he would have otherwise against Pressler and Weiland in this 3-way race, due to Republican spending to counter that of the Dems. High 40’s. Safe R. :: Colorado - As in the Governor's race, voter fraud may play a role here, but I can’t see Gardner losing to Udall after leading in every poll for the last month, and with the huge Republican advantage in the early vote count. Toss-Up R. ::Kansas - All that wasted money, Democrats. So sad. Ok, so not really. Early vote numbers are great for Roberts. Orman won’t take any positions and Roberts annihilated him in their debates. The fake grin, lack of substance, and calling Bob Dole a clown are just icing on the cake in this race that is not, I suspect, as close as polls show. Leans R. :: Louisiana - Will probably go to a runoff, which Landrieu could potentially win if Senate control does not rest on her race. It won’t, but I don’t see her winning, anyway. Cassidy leads by healthy margin, and may even get a plurality over Landrieu in the November vote. If Senate control is undecided at the point of the runoff, she stands absolutely 0% chance. If Republicans already have a majority, it still - Leans R. :: Arkansas - Cotton’s margin against Pryor is only improving. And it was good to begin with. Everyone is loathe to say an incumbent Senator who was previously very popular is a sure bet for defeat. But I’m not. Safe R. :: Georgia - Nunn has a good family name, but she peaked about two weeks early. At this point, she may not even secure a run-off but it’s a little more likely that there will be one than that there will not. In a run-off, she’s dead meat. This is a race the Democrats are talking about mostly to save face and appear to be on offense SOMEWHERE. It’s a head fake. Safe R. :: North Carolina - Unless Independent turnout is through the floor, Tillis is favored over Kagan here. Kagan needs massive black turnout and low Independent and Republican turnout to win. She’s stuck at 45% which is a terrible indicator. I don’t expect turnout to be down. Toss-Up R. :: Kentucky - On the map for the entire election, this one is finally off the table. McConnell’s margin will not be big, but there’s no way it won’t be there. Grimes has self-immolated and McConnell is a master at Kentucky politics. Safe R. :: West Virginia - Capito is about to lead the Republican charge to turn West Virginia red at the state level. Tennant is not a terrible nominee, so Capito’s huge margin will be even more impressive. Almost 60, but not quite. Safe R. :: Iowa - Braley has proven to be an awful candidate and Ernst, exceptional. In this purple state and with those realities to be faced, I don’t see much of a chance for Braley. Ernst has led consistently in the polls for a while now, as well. Leans R. :: New Hampshire - The barnburner of the cycle. It seems based on Shaheen’s movements over the past few days that she’s pretty concerned about turnout. One poll had her up by 1, one poll had Brown up by 1. New Hampshire is the state in the union where incumbency doesn’t seem to help. In a nationalized election, the voters WILL throw you out quite frequently if you are in the party in power. Obama’s approval is below 40%. She would have to greatly over perform him to win here. Which she very well may. But I put my finger on the scale for Brown here given the overall macros of this election. Toss-Up R. :: Michigan - If the Republicans had nominated someone other than Land, the GOP would be tied with Peters. But we didn’t, and Land’s campaign has left a lot to be desired. Peters has a clear advantage. Leans D. :: Minnesota - McFadden has not gotten the traction against Franken that he should have. Franken is laying low and avoiding taking positions or making any public comments at all, really. Surprisingly, the strategy seems to be working. Leans D. :: New Mexico - Last minute polls here show this race tight all of a sudden. Smart money is still on Udall. But Weh easily won the last debate and Martinez may have some coattails. Upset is possible. Leans D. :: Virginia - Along with New Mexico, this is tied for the race that may surprise with a completely out of left field victory of Gillespie over Warner. All the fundamentals still favor Warner, however. Including the money game. Closer than expected. Leans D. :: Oregon - Wehby has fared worse than hoped against Merkley. What was once an excellent opportunity has fallen off the board. Safe D. :: Mississippi - Most handicappers have Cochran v. Childers ranked as Likely R. It’s solid. Cochran would break 60 but for some tea party votes being withheld. He’ll almost hit 60, anyway. Safe R. :: New Jersey - Booker will underperform against Bell, who is a very smart man. But like McConnell in Kentucky, he may not win by a lot, but he can’t not win. Safe D. :: Illinois - Perpetual candidate Oberweis just doesn’t stand a chance against Durbin’s Chicago vote machine. There was some polling here about a month ago that was surprisingly close, but Durbin has put this one away. Safe D. :: Nebraska - Sasse will beat Domina with a better than expected margin in this open seat. Dems haven’t even really tried here. Over 60%. Safe R. :: Texas - Cornyn is in no danger of losing to Alameel. The question is whether he will top 60. I say he will but some tea partiers may skip the contest, denying him an even bigger victory. Why do they dislike Cornyn? Don’t look to make any sense out of who the tea party decides to like and who they don’t. Nonetheless, Safe R. :: South Carolina - Scott v. Dickerson will be a greater than 60% blowout. Graham will fare more poorly against Hutto. Graham is one Senator who actually does deserve Conservative disdain, unlike Roberts, McConnell, or Cornyn. He can’t lose but his win won’t be impressive. Safe R’s. :: Tennessee - Alexander is another Senator who deserves the disdain he gets from Conservatives. But a lot more people will hold their noses and vote for him anyway than in the case for Graham. Ball will be embarrassed by his showing. Greater than 60. Safe R. :: Oklahoma - Two races here. Inhofe v. Silverstein and Lankford v. Johnson. Same analysis for both. Republican blow-outs. Greater than 60% in both. A margin that Inhofe deserves. Lankford does not. Safe R’s. :: Wyoming - Thankfully Liz Cheney didn’t run here. Enzi is a good Senator. He will be the GOP Senator with the highest percentage of the vote this year (other than Sessions, running unopposed) against Hardy. Better than 70%. Safe R. :: Idaho - Risch will wipe the floor with Mitchell. He could top 70% but I predict mid 60’s. Safe R. :: Alabama - Long live Sessions, who is running unopposed other than a lunatic write-in candidate. Greater than 90%. And deserves that much. Safe R. :: Maine - Thanks to the tea party for not running off Collins like they did Snowe and handing this seat to a far left D. Collins will get better than 60% of the vote against Bellows. Safe R. :: Delaware - Coons almost didn’t have an opponent here. Guess O’Donnell only runs when it will cost the GOP a seat. Wade is a sacrificial lamb. It will be close to 60, but I think Coons hits that mark. Safe D. :: Massachusetts - Markey will beat Herr with greater than 60%. It’s Massachusetts. Nuff said. Safe D. :: Rhode Island - Reed will top Zaccaria with greater than 70%, potentially, but that margin could go above or below 70 by a few points. I don’t understand why the GOP can’t do any better here. Safe D. :: Hawaii - This race is not really on the radar. Cavasso is a great nominee but Hawaii is just not receptive. Schatz will probably break 70%. Safe D.