Date of Prediction: 2014-11-03 Version:34
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (114th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
Analysis
Final Predictions for 2014 Senate Race: GOP retakes U.S. Senate in massive repudiation of Obama Administration.<br /> <br /> With less than a day to go till Election Day, the GOP is poised to retake the U.S. Senate:<br /> <br /> Maine: Susan Collins is re-elected easily in a landslide.<br /> <br /> New Hampshire: Scott Brown loses narrowly to Jeanne Shaheen. Brown had trailed most of the race to Shaheen by double digits. He started closing the gap to even. However Shaheen is the most popular politician in the history of the United States of America. Brown attacked Shaheen as a Senator that voted 99% in favor of Obama, who approval rating in N.H. has collapsed to below 40%. He also attacked Shaheen over Ebola virus, now in America, and the radical terrorist organization ISIS. Shaheen attacked Brown as being a pawn of the radical organization known only as the Koch Brothers, and as a radical Teapublican. This race is very close, but Shaheen has the narrow edge.<br /> <br /> Massachusetts: Markey is in control of this race.<br /> <br /> Rhode Island: Jack Reed will win in a massive, overwhelming landslide.<br /> <br /> New Jersey: Corey Booker, who is a moderate senator, who has worked with Sen. Rand Paul on sentencing reform, will win easily.<br /> <br /> Delaware: Sen. Chris Coons, will get another term.<br /> <br /> West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito, will take this seat for the Republicans, in an awesome wave.<br /> <br /> Virginia: Gillespie has been nipping at Warner's heels, however, Warner should win comfortably.<br /> <br /> North Carolina: Originally, Kay Hagan was allegedly one the most toxic, and controversial incumbents in the nation, having provided the decisive vote for Obamacare. Now she is the slight favorite to win. Hagan benefited from having had a picture perfect campaign. Secondly she benefitted from a Libertarian in Sean Haugh that is taking 8-9 percent in recent polls. Thirdly she is benefitting from a lousy candidate in Thom Tillis that allowed the legislature to back Christianity as the state religion. Ouch! Hagan ran away from President Barack Obama as humanly possible and will reap the benefits for that. Hagan will win, but this race is close.<br /> <br /> South Carolina: Both Scott and Graham will easily win. But Tim Scott will win by more. Why? Easy. Graham is a neocon and supports amnesty for illegal aliens, whereas Tim Scott absolutely is not and does not.<br /> <br /> Georgia: There was a point where this race looked it would go to a run off. Now it looks like David Perdue could win outright. Libertarian Amanda Swafford is a threat to both candidates. But even if Perdue falls short, he will certainly win the run-off in January.<br /> <br /> Alabama: Sessions will win in a massive landslide.<br /> <br /> Mississippi: Cochran wins bigtime.<br /> <br /> TN: Bet on Lamar Alexander to win.<br /> <br /> Kentucky: Grimes had a small chance, but McConnell is going to win in a state where Obama's approval rating is below sea level. Grime's sins include being anti-coal and not endorsing Obama, when everyone knows she was in fact and Obama voter. Grimes was a favorite of Obama people, but her actual campaign was malpractice. Shameful.<br /> <br /> Michigan. Gary Peters wins. Land started with lots of potential but her bizarre campaign failed to win over undecided.<br /> <br /> Minnesota: Al Franken will easily win a second term over McFadden. Franken stayed above the fray and will be rewarded.<br /> <br /> Iowa: Joni Earnst v. Bruce Braley. (Not Bailey as Michelle Obama claimed, nor is he a gubernatorial candidate as Obama claimed.) Iowa is ground zero for presidential elections, and where Braley has trailed Joni Ernst for weeks. But Braley is closing the gap, and this trial lawyer is going to show this hog castrator, just what it means to be a come from behind victor. As an aside I have a great amount of respect for Sen. Tom Harkin.<br /> <br /> Arkansas: Sen. Tom Cotton. Please see the great movie Religulous by Bill Maher to see Mark Pryor in action. I promise you you will enjoy it. And that's it for Pryor, enjoy!<br /> <br /> Louisiana: Bill Cassidy wins the run off in December.<br /> <br /> Texas: Sen. John Cornyn easily:<br /> <br /> Oklahoma: Republicans win both seats in landslides.<br /> <br /> Kansas: Greg Orman, Independent, wins. Orman's caucus goals are unknown. Orman mean freedom from party, from ideology, from party bosses like Harry Reid and Mitch McConnoll, freedom from convention. This is the state where independents and moderates break free of the suffocating two-party system. Tis glorious.<br /> <br /> Nebraska: Sasse wins, in an awesome wave.<br /> <br /> South Dakota: This race has been quiet. Too quiet. This Rounds wins.<br /> <br /> The GOP will sweep races in Montana and Idaho and Wyomin in races that don't merit mention.<br /> <br /> Likewise the Democrats are favored in Hawaii and Oregon.<br /> <br /> In Alaska, perhaps the closest Senate race right now, Mark Begich and Dan Sullivan battle for victory. Either outcome is possible but Sullivan has a very slight edge.<br /> <br /> Colorado: Udall, who has a great set of issues, decided to run a strange, single issue campaign. Gardner defeats Udall is the largest upset of the night.<br /> <br /> N.M: What happened here? The race between Udall and Weh wasn't supposed to be close. Udall wins, but the margin will surprise many analysts.<br />
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