Date of Prediction: 2016-06-26 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 68)
Analysis
The Senate goes 54 R - 48 D. The Arizona Republican is Kelli Ward, not John McCain. Wisconsin and Illinois are both lost causes for the GOP. The Republicans would have Florida had Jolly been the nominee, but since the party is bending over backwards to let Rubio back in, then the Democrats win it even though I believe Murphy will lose to Grayson in the primary. Reid's Nevada seat going GOP is my brave prediction.<br /> <br /> As a further and final notice, the GOP keeps a razor-thin control of the Senate without depending on a Republican VP. However, red state Dems in 2018 will likely go down (midterm effect combined with increasing party polarization), so the Republicans may make up more than enough to pull to a higher number.
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