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Date of Prediction: 2016-06-26 Version:2

Prediction Map
GOPLibertarian MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
GOPLibertarian MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep22
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind0
 
Tos4
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+1+30-1-1729+2
Rep0+1+1-2-1-320121-2
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic123446
Republican223052
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
483018
piepiepie

Analysis

The Senate goes 54 R - 48 D. The Arizona Republican is Kelli Ward, not John McCain. Wisconsin and Illinois are both lost causes for the GOP. The Republicans would have Florida had Jolly been the nominee, but since the party is bending over backwards to let Rubio back in, then the Democrats win it even though I believe Murphy will lose to Grayson in the primary. Reid's Nevada seat going GOP is my brave prediction.<br /> <br /> As a further and final notice, the GOP keeps a razor-thin control of the Senate without depending on a Republican VP. However, red state Dems in 2018 will likely go down (midterm effect combined with increasing party polarization), so the Republicans may make up more than enough to pull to a higher number.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President 49/56 40/56 89/112 79.5% pie 1 249 434T684
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 2 159 35T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 18/34 48/68 70.6% pie 2 135 164T362
P 2014 Senate 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 4 5 177T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 11/36 42/72 58.3% pie 4 2 211T300
Aggregate Predictions 195/218 123/218 318/436 72.9% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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