Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-28 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	10
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	8
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+1	+6	0	0	0	7	3	10	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-1	-6	17	1	18	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	16	34	50
Republican	18	30	48
Independent	0	2	2

Analysis

Well my next to last entry, I must say things are very fluid and this could easily happen. Some states are moving back towards GOP while others are moving in other direction, will the tides shift again-you betcha as they say here. and probably reverse more than once between now and election day.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-10-28 @ 06:37:01
I can see GOP retaining both Indiana and Missouri...and the race in NH is one for the books.<br /> <br /> anyway the turnout will determine the vote shifts, how heavily will women turnout and vote up and down ballot against GOP remains to be seen.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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