Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-09-22 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	16
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	11
Rep	16
Ind	0
Tos	7
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+5	+1	+6	0	0	0	7	3	10	+6
Rep	0	0	0	-5	-1	-6	18	0	18	-6
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	16	34	50
Republican	18	30	48
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	30	18

Analysis

Moved: Missouri - Toss-up North Carolina - Toss-up Indiana - Toss-up New Hampshire - toss-up Ohio - Strong R Pennsylvania - Toss-up Dems chances at the Senate have markedly improved, and I think they'll gain 6 seats and win the Senate.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	30/35	19/35	49/70	70.0%	2	130	272	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	25/36	57/72	79.2%	2	132	78	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	10	1	T	149
2016 President	46/56	25/56	71/112	63.4%	6	26	552	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	47	164	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	3	47	67	T	279
2015 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	1	165	8	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	24/36	59/72	81.9%	7	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	21/36	50/72	69.4%	6	1	39	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	234	1	T	153
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	2	47	115	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	272/308	188/308	460/616	74.7%