Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:4
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 68)
Analysis
Late break in the Senate races seems to be towards Rs; shifted IN (since Bayh has self-immolated) and NC (on the basis of early voting looking like just barely good enough for Burr) towards them. Final call is 51-49 D, with 4 races as tossups (so reasonably could be anywhere from 51-49 R to 53-47 D) with 2 more possible upsets if some of the underlying assumptions are incorrect (so, could go from 53-47 R all the way to 55-45 D; which is a useless prediction now that I write it down, but eh). <br /> <br /> Congrats to Duckworth and Masto, who I have as safe; who picked the right year and the right place to run and now seem like certain victors against some of the strongest candidates their opponent's party has to offer.<br /> <br /> Four incumbents who were supposed to be vulnerable the challenges to whom utterly failed to pan out, all of whom I expect to win by double-digits: McCain, Bennet, Grassley, Portman. Nice jobs, guys.
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