PredictionsEndorse2016 Senatorial Predictions - dgentile (G-NJ) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-08-04 Version:1

Prediction Map
dgentile MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
dgentile MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind0
 
Non16
 

Confidence States Won
18 |
34 |
50 |
Dem15
 
pie
Rep13
 
Ind0
 
Tos6
 
Non16
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+5+1+60007310+6
Rep000-5-1-617118-6
Ind0000000000


Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Party Seats Up Seats Not Up Total Seats
Democratic163450
Republican183048
Independent022
pie

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
453015
piepiepie

Analysis

Think I missed a few percentages and confidence indicators, but good first draft.<br /> <br /> Toomey and Ayotte are losing in latest polling (Aug 4.), joining Kirk and Johnson, while Portman is hanging by a thread, disavowing Trump. Feingold, Duckworth, Hasan, Strickland, and to a lesser extent McGinty, all have excellent experience and high positives. Expect at lest 4 out of 5 go Dem. <br /> <br /> Murphy is being slandered in FL, which will backfire. Flip-flopping no-show Rubio who needs a job while waiting for his next Presidential run is being primaried. Murphy will rise as Republicans fracture.<br /> <br /> IN - Bayh would take this easy if not for Pence nomination rallying R. voters.<br /> <br /> AZ, NV - These could hinge on Presidential outlook and possible Romney endorsement of Gary Johnson suppressing R. turnout.<br /> <br /> MO,NC - Trump really has to tank nationally to oust the incumbents.<br /> <br /> IA - Maybe Grassley keels over.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 238
P 2020 President 51/56 37/56 88/112 78.6% pie 2 168 480T684
P 2020 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 1 331 101T423
P 2016 President 42/56 25/56 67/112 59.8% pie 2 26 597T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 15/34 45/68 66.2% pie 1 96 277T362
P 2012 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 2 1 508T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 16/33 48/66 72.7% pie 1 34 144T343
P 2010 Senate 26/37 16/37 42/74 56.8% pie 4 48 359T456
P 2008 President 54/56 35/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 12 247T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 18/33 50/66 75.8% pie 1 29 117T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 3 77 232T465
P 2004 President 46/56 24/56 70/112 62.5% pie 5 76 1629T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 426/485 263/485 689/970 71.0% pie



Alabama3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Alaska3 Arizona3 Arkansas3 California3 California3 California3 California3 Colorado3 Connecticut3 Connecticut3 Florida3 Georgia3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Hawaii3 Idaho3 Illinois3 Indiana3 Iowa3 Kansas3 Kentucky3 Louisiana3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Maryland3 Missouri3 Nevada3 New Hampshire3 New York3 New York3 North Carolina3 North Dakota3 Ohio3 Oklahoma3 Oregon3 Pennsylvania3 South Carolina3 South Dakota3 Utah3 Vermont3 Washington3 Washington3 Washington3 Wisconsin3 Wisconsin3

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