Date of Prediction: 2016-08-04 Version:1
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):
Prediction Score (max Score = 68)
Analysis
Think I missed a few percentages and confidence indicators, but good first draft.<br /> <br /> Toomey and Ayotte are losing in latest polling (Aug 4.), joining Kirk and Johnson, while Portman is hanging by a thread, disavowing Trump. Feingold, Duckworth, Hasan, Strickland, and to a lesser extent McGinty, all have excellent experience and high positives. Expect at lest 4 out of 5 go Dem. <br /> <br /> Murphy is being slandered in FL, which will backfire. Flip-flopping no-show Rubio who needs a job while waiting for his next Presidential run is being primaried. Murphy will rise as Republicans fracture.<br /> <br /> IN - Bayh would take this easy if not for Pence nomination rallying R. voters.<br /> <br /> AZ, NV - These could hinge on Presidential outlook and possible Romney endorsement of Gary Johnson suppressing R. turnout.<br /> <br /> MO,NC - Trump really has to tank nationally to oust the incumbents.<br /> <br /> IA - Maybe Grassley keels over. Member Comments User's Predictions
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