Election 2016 Senatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-01-01 Version:1

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	13
Ind	0
Non	16

Confidence States Won

		18 \|	34 \|	50 \|
Dem	15
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	6
Non	16

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+10	+1	+11	0	0	0	7	3	10	+11
Rep	0	0	0	-10	-1	-11	12	1	13	-11
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predicted Senate Control (115th Congress):

Party	Seats Up	Seats Not Up	Total Seats
Democratic	21	34	55
Republican	13	30	43
Independent	0	2	2

Prediction Score (max Score = 68)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
30	25	5

Analysis

The Republicans will lose control of the U.S. Senate. Ten to eleven incumbent losses is likely. Donald Trump does not help, the blue states with its large demographics of minorities and women are voting not just against Trump but against the Republican party as a whole, even if Trump is not the nominee, too much political damage has been done.by Mr. Trump.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	45/56	21/56	66/112	58.9%	3	41	614	T	678
2016 Senate	25/34	5/34	30/68	44.1%	1	312	361		362
2016 Governor	8/12	2/12	10/24	41.7%	1	312	254	T	279
2012 President	53/56	12/56	65/112	58.0%	3	28	741	T	760
2012 Senate	27/33	1/33	28/66	42.4%	1	35	334	T	343
2012 Governor	8/11	1/11	9/22	40.9%	1	35	221	T	228
2010 Senate	29/37	6/37	35/74	47.3%	2	98	429	T	456
2010 Governor	27/37	2/37	29/74	39.2%	2	98	296	T	312
2008 President	52/56	28/56	80/112	71.4%	4	41	503	T	1,505
2004 President	51/56	34/56	85/112	75.9%	9	1	706	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	325/388	112/388	437/776	56.3%

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