Well, the California Recall is over. Preliminary results are in and it appears to be a solid victory for the recall and for Schwarzenegger. The top republican challenger received 47.8% of the overall vote and carried 50 of California’s 58 counties – including the populous counties of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and Sacramento. Interestingly, Schwarzenegger actually received slightly more votes than “no” votes on the recall (subject to change as more votes are tallied). Schwarzenegger’s best showing was in Sutter County (64.5%)
Bustamante’s support was limited to the San Francisco Bay area (although he lost Contra Costa County by a slight 0.44%). Bustamante’s best showing was in San Francisco (63.4%).
McClintock placed a solid third with 13.2% (he placed second in eight counties and fourth in one). His best showing was Stanislaus County with 23.9%. It appears that many of the more conservative counties opted for the more socially liberal Schwarzenegger over the more conservative McClintock.
Camejo placed fourth with 2.8% – barely half of his showing in 2002. His best county was Humboldt with 7.2%.
Overall, three counties were won with < 40% of the vote – Bustamante in Mendocino , Schwarzenegger in Contra Costa and Napa.
Note that it will take many days for all the ballots to be counted. A final tally will be posted on the site following the certification of the vote by the California Secretary of State.
One thing I noticed in your recall pages was that the map on the top of the County Data File for the yes/no vote on the recall is the map showing the results of the replacement election. It’s not a big problem, but I think it would be better if the map corresponded with the data being shown. Besides that, however, everything seems fine. There is no column showing the total vote on the question on whether or not to recall Davis, like there usually is on your Data Files, but I don’t see any problem with that. It’s interesting to compare the vote on the recall with the results of the regular 1998 and 2002 Gubernatorial elections. The Central Valley has swung against Davis big time. No counties have gone from voting for Simon in 2002 to voting against the recall, but several counties had a larger anti-recall % of the vote than the % of the vote Davis won in 2002, and in some counties the margin against the recall is greater than Davis’s 2002 margin or the margin for the recall is greater than Simon’s 2002 margin. In San Fransisco, the percentage of voters who voted against the recall is actually greater than the percentage of voters who voted for Davis in his 1998 victory, although the margin is less. These shifts show that the San Fransisco Bay Area is becoming more solidly Democratic, with the interior becoming more Republican. It will be interesting to see what the map will look like if Schwarzenegger runs for reelection in 2006.
Thanks Kevin! I have corrected the recall map association with the recall data. It was an oversight in the code. It used to be that I would create each html page individually (and being very meticulous) would be able to customize appropriately. I am now using significantly faster means of creating web pages through PHP, but the changes for error are greater. I always appreciate hearing about errors in the site so that I can fix them. I endeavor to continue providing a very detailed, accurate, and informative site.
Dave