Category Archives: Election 2012

2012 Election Results Updated for Warrick County, IN

The updated 2012 general election results for Warrick County, IN have been released by the Warrick County Election Office.  On March 3, 2014, it was announced that thousands of ballots were not reported in the 2012 general election due to error.  The new report includes the addition of 3,790 absentee ballots omitted from the original report.  However, the new report omits one military ballot and four provisional ballots (the four provisional ballots were counted in the original report).  For President, the outstanding ballots are statistically similar to the ballots originally counted, with a nearly identical percentage for Romney, a slightly higher percentage for Obama, and only half the percentage for Johnson.  The table below shows the comparison:

Warrick County, IN Ballot Comparison

Candidate
Original
Audited
Change
% Change
Total Ballots24,98428,7703,78615.2%
Mitt Romney15,35117,6802,32915.2%
Barack Obama8,79310,1811,38815.8%
Gary Johnson486523377.6%

All online databases and store files for US President, US Senate, Governor, and US House of Representatives have been updated to reflect this update.

Reports: Warrick 2012 Summary   :   Warrick 2012 Post Audit Summary

Walsh County, ND 2012 Vote Recanvassed in 2013

Walsh County, ND

Walsh County, ND

Walsh County, ND data for 2012 have been updated on the atlas to reflect the recanvass of the results by the County Auditor in April, 2013.  The Auditor said that there were insufficient ballots printed for the 2012 General Election, and to accommodate the voters, photocopies were made and then hand counted.  This resulted in some confusion and the results were recanvassed in April of 2013.  The net result was a small decrease in the official totals across all offices and all candidates.  Romney’s net vote dropped by 157 from 2,813 to 2,656 and Obama lost 139 votes from 2,124 to 1,985.  Similar vote reductions occurred for candidates for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representative, and Governor.

Warrick County Clerk Discovers 3,791 Uncounted Ballots

Warrick County, IN

Warrick County, IN

The Warrick County, Indiana Clerk has recently announced a discovery that 3,791 early ballots cast in the 2012 General Election were left uncounted in the official results published.  Looking at the data, a comparison of the ballots cast in 2008 and 2012 show an overall decline in total ballots cast of 4,211 (29,195 ballots were cast in 2008 vs 24,984 cast in 2012 – a decline of 14%).  This compares with a 4.6% decline in overall turnout state-wide.  More strikingly, the total number of absentee ballots dropped from 10,372 to 1,981 or 81%!  Another anomaly shows that the number of machine ballots increased to 22,999 from 18,823, an increase of 4,176 votes (22% increase).  These data compare with the county voter registration increase of 3,367 voters (+7.2%), causing the overall turnout to fall from 62.5% to 49.9%.  The table below summarizes the data:

Ballots
2008
2012
Change
Machine18,82322,9994,176+22.2%
Absentee10,3721,981-8,391-80.9%
Total29,19524,984-4,211-14.4%
Reg Voters46,71850,0853,367+7.2%
Turnout62.5%49.9%-12.6%

The turnout of 49.9% voter turnout ranks Warrick fourth from the bottom (89th place), just ahead of Clinton, Switzerland, and Scott.  In 2008, Warrick was right in the middle of the pack (40th place). Below is a chart that shows the Warrick County normalized voter turnout from 1980 to 2012 (vs. Registered Voters). This is calculated by subtracting the statewide voter turnout from the voter turnout in Warrick County.

Warrick County, IN Normalized Turnout

The chart highlights the significant decline in normalized turnout for 2012, well outside the normal variable range for the county, pointing to a high probability of an error. Thus far, the Warrick County Clerk has not published an update to the official county vote results for the 2012 General Election.  The Atlas will be updated when this occurs.  Thanks to Jeff Singer for the tip.

New Republic Article on Maine 2012

The New Republic has published an article titled “The Mysterious Town That Voted For Ron Paul” based on the Election Atlas Maine statewide township map of the 2012 General Election results for President (it links to this weblog post).  The Atlas has a weblog entry on this very topic published back on June 28, 2013.  The New Republic article expresses some concern on the validity of the result based on the lack of lack of existing modern information about Concord Unorganized Township on the web and the absence of election results from Concord UT in recent elections.  As for the latter concern, there is recent evidence of consistent results reported from Concord UT.  In addition to the three votes cast for President in 2012 from (all write-ins for Ron Paul), there are also three votes cast for U.S. SenateU.S. House of Representatives District 2State Senate District 26, and State Representative District 88.  Furthermore, while 2012 was the first modern year that Maine published Presidential Election results separately for Concord UT, the Maine 2010 General Election results as published by the Maine Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions also include three votes for Governor from Concord UT (two for Republican Paul LePage and one for Independent Eliot Cutler) as well as three votes each for U.S. Representative, State Senator, and State Representative.  Another mention of Concord UT separately is a voter registration report from November of 2006 that includes five registered voters (four Unenrolled and one Republican).  Earlier reports of election results mention that Concord UT results are included with Solon Township (example: General Election Tabulations November 2, 2004).

Elections Administered by Millinocket

Elections Administered by Millinocket

A number of the gray-shaded towns in the Maine statewide township map have residents, but not governments that administer elections.  Rather, larger surrounding townships administer elections in the unorganized townships and include these votes in their tallies.  One example is that of Millinocket (dark green in map at right), where the town administers elections in Penobscot Unorganized Townships 3 and 4, Long A UT, Cedar Lake UT, T1 R9 WELS UT, and T1 R8 WELS UT (all in light green).  Sometimes, the election results or voter registration figures for these outlying unorganized townships are tallied separately, sometimes they are added to the votes cast within the administering township, and sometimes they are reported as an aggregate separate from the administering township.  Results vary from year to year.

Updated 2012 Results in Saguache County, CO

Saguache County, CO

Saguache County, CO

The Colorado Office of the Secretary of State publishes a biennial report of official election results for the several elections held in the preceding two years.  Often the results presented within this abstract differ from the on-line reports published on the agency website shortly after the election. The 2012 Abstract of Votes Cast has only small deviations in the votes for Saguache County relative to the results published in the January 2012 on-line report.  The differences are Barack Obama (D) +1, Roseanne Barr (P&F) +2, Anderson (Jus) -2, Tittle (WTP) +1, Miller (ATP) -1. The Atlas database has been updated with this minor change.  Full results of the Colorado 2012 General Election Results for President are available on the Atlas here.

A Vote for President Uncounted in Aurora, Illinois

The Illinois State Board of Elections did not count one 2012 General Election Presidential Ballot vote for Barack Obama in the City of Aurora.  In the state of Illinois, the administration of elections is performed by a combination of county governments and a number of city election commissions.  The final set of results, however, published by the Illinois State Board of Elections, is summarized only by County.  An oversight within this process is evident in the 2012 General Election Results for the City of Aurora.  Aurora is split between four counties – Kane, Kendall, Will, and DuPage.  The Aurora Election Commission administers the precincts residing in three of these counties (the DuPage County Election Commission administers those precincts entirely within its boundaries because a county commission supersedes a city commission, whereas a city commission supersedes a county clerk).  The precinct-level results from Aurora City are tallied by county and the totals are included with the results of Kane, Kendall, and Will, as appropriate.  However, the 2012 Statement of Votes Cast from the Aurora Election Commission, includes an entry labeled “Presidential Ballot”, with one vote cast for Barack Obama.  This ballot was not allocated to its home precinct.  When the tallies of the votes for President were made, the data suggest that only the physical precinct votes were tallied by county and included in the Official Vote.  This “Presidential Ballot” appears not to have a defined county, leaving it left uncounted.  The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the official results for Barack Obama for the counties of Kane, Kendall, and Will, showing the one vote discrepancy:

Aurora County Clerk Total IL SBoE
County # Prc Votes # Prc Votes
Kane 63 20,304 228 70,028 90,332 90,332
Kendall 3 1,157 83 21,314 22,471 22,471
Will 7 2,493 304 141,736 144,229 144,229
Total 73 23,954 615 233,078 257,032 257,032
Aurora City 74 23,955 ∆ of 1

Aurora SOVC Screenshot

West Virginia 2012 Write-in Votes

The 2012 General Election results for President officially reported in the West Virginia Certificate of Ascertainment include a total of 229 votes cast for 26 declared write-in candidates.  The vote data for the write-in candidates are not included by the West Virginia Secretary of State in their online election results database.  To date, the Election Atlas database only had the statewide totals available, including 119 votes for Virgil Goode, 31 votes for Roseanne Barr, 12 votes for Rocky Anderson, etc. Recently, I received the full county-level data for these candidates from the West Virginia Secretary of State’s office and incorporated them into the atlas.

Michigan 2012 President by City & Township

Michigan 2012 Presidential Election Results by City and Township The 2012 Presidential Election Results map for Michigan by county subdivision (City, Township, and Charter Township) is now complete.  Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won a total of 1,133 cities and townships while Barack Obama and Joe Biden won in 382 (eight were ties).  This is a significant number of pickups for the Republican ticket vs. 2008, where Obama and Biden won in 684 cities and townships vs. the McCain/Palin ticket’s 830.  Similar to many other states, the municipalities with the largest populations voted overwhelmingly Democratic, with Obama/Biden winning nine of the top ten (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Warren, Ann Arbor, Sterling Heights, Clinton, Lansing, Canton, Farmington Hills; Romney won Livonia) with a net margin of 385,875 votes.  In the city of Detroit alone, Obama/Biden won 97.6% to 2.1%, a margin of 275,724 votes.  Full details can be viewed on the Michigan 2012 Town page.

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Swing Map

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Swing Map by City and Town

Wisconsin 2012 Swing

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Election Map by Congressional District

WI 2012 CD Map

An interesting map to have a look at is the Presidential Swing map by city and town for the state of Wisconsin in the 2012 general election. With Congressman Paul Ryan on as the Republican Vice Presidential candidates – a native representing Wisconsin’s first congressional district, does the map reflect a larger vote swing in his home district?  The second map at right shows the 2012 Presidential Election Results by U.S. Congressional District.  The first district is located in the southeast corner of the state – south and west of Milwaukee.  The overall result in the first congressional district was Romney/Ryan 51.6%, Obama/Biden 47.4%, Others 1.1%.  However, the swing map shows that the cities and towns within the first district are about average for the southern half of the state.  Larger swings towards the Romney/Ryan ticket were recorded in the northern portion of the state, especially within the seventh and eighth districts.  More detail on this can be viewed on the 2012 Wisconsin Presidential Election Results by City and Town page.

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Map by County Subdivision

The complete Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Election Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Map by County Subdivision results map by county subdivision (town, city, village) between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is now complete. The map at right is the thumbnail of the result (click on map for larger version).  Mitt Romney won 1,070 municipalities and Barack Obama won 809 (there were 16 ties). This was a significant improvement over 2008, where Republican John McCain won only 649 municipalities and Barack Obama won 1,232 (with 15 ties). Like in other states, the municipalities with the largest number of votes cast were dominantly won by Barack Obama.  Of the cities with more than 30,000 votes cast, Obama won 10 of 11, accounting for a margin of 325,338 votes. Milwaukee and Madison alone accounted for a vote margin of 258,938 votes. Compared with the overall state-wide margin of 213,019, these population centers secured the victory for Obama in Wisconsin.