Category Archives: Election 2012

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Swing Map

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Swing Map by City and Town

Wisconsin 2012 Swing

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Election Map by Congressional District

WI 2012 CD Map

An interesting map to have a look at is the Presidential Swing map by city and town for the state of Wisconsin in the 2012 general election. With Congressman Paul Ryan on as the Republican Vice Presidential candidates – a native representing Wisconsin’s first congressional district, does the map reflect a larger vote swing in his home district?  The second map at right shows the 2012 Presidential Election Results by U.S. Congressional District.  The first district is located in the southeast corner of the state – south and west of Milwaukee.  The overall result in the first congressional district was Romney/Ryan 51.6%, Obama/Biden 47.4%, Others 1.1%.  However, the swing map shows that the cities and towns within the first district are about average for the southern half of the state.  Larger swings towards the Romney/Ryan ticket were recorded in the northern portion of the state, especially within the seventh and eighth districts.  More detail on this can be viewed on the 2012 Wisconsin Presidential Election Results by City and Town page.

Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Map by County Subdivision

The complete Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Election Wisconsin 2012 Presidential Map by County Subdivision results map by county subdivision (town, city, village) between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is now complete. The map at right is the thumbnail of the result (click on map for larger version).  Mitt Romney won 1,070 municipalities and Barack Obama won 809 (there were 16 ties). This was a significant improvement over 2008, where Republican John McCain won only 649 municipalities and Barack Obama won 1,232 (with 15 ties). Like in other states, the municipalities with the largest number of votes cast were dominantly won by Barack Obama.  Of the cities with more than 30,000 votes cast, Obama won 10 of 11, accounting for a margin of 325,338 votes. Milwaukee and Madison alone accounted for a vote margin of 258,938 votes. Compared with the overall state-wide margin of 213,019, these population centers secured the victory for Obama in Wisconsin.

New York Releases Third Set of Amended 2012 Election Results

Following the release of the Kings County amended 2012 General Election results on July 2, 2013 by the New York City Board of Elections, the New York State Board of Elections released a new set of amended results files on July 29, 2013.  This is the third set of amended results released by the NYSBOE following the release of the certified results on December 31, 2012.  Previous amended results were released on February 6, 2013 and April 9, 2013.  This latest set of results only includes changes to Kings County, and still do not include the updated final official results from Rockland County (published on 01/09/2013).  The notes on the Atlas for the 2012 New York Presidential General Election Results have been updated to reflect the official nature of the Kings County amended results.

Bernie Sanders Wins All 246 Towns in 2012 General Election

2012 Vermont US Senate General Election Map by Town Bernie Sanders, an independent running for re-election to the United States Senate in Vermont, won all 246 towns in the 2012 General Election. With no Democratic candidate in the contest, Sanders won a solid state-wide victory with 71% of the vote to Republican John MacGovern’s 25%. Chris Ericson of the United States Marijuana party had 2.0% with four other candididates making up the rest (full results).  This bested his 2006 result where he received 65% of the vote and won all but two towns (one of the two was a tie).

In recent years, a fairly uniform result across the state in US Senate elections has been relatively common.  Republican Jim Jeffords won all towns in 2000, Democrat Patrick Leahy won all but one town in 2004 and all but ten in 2010.

New Maine County Township Maps

Individual Maine county township maps for the 2008 and 2012 General Elections for President have been created.  These include swing, trend, and party maps with full mouse-over image maps.  The maps are a result of the recent work to build an election mapping database for Maine to include the unincorporated townships missing from the US Census county subdivision database.

Maine 2012 General Election Township Map – President

Maine 2012 Presidential Election Results by Town The 2012 Presidential Election Map by Town for the State of Maine has been added to the Atlas (at right – click for a larger image). The results for Maine are a challenge to map because the Maine Secretary of State lists results for many individual unincorporated townships that the US Census Bureau aggregates into larger geographic regions. For example, the official election results in Washington County include a separate entry for Edmunds Twp (census aggregates into East Central Washington UT), Brookton Twp (census aggregated into North Washington UT), etc. In total, there are 26 unincorporated townships in the 2012 General Election results that are not listed as separate geographic unincorporated townships by the US Census Bureau. To further complicate matters, Maine tends to change which of these townships report from year to year.  In 2012, first-time listings include Concord and Spring Lake Twp (Somerset County), Lang Twp (Franklin County), T11 R4, T12 R13, T15 R6, T15 R9, TD R2 (Aroostook County), T7 SD (Hancock County).  E Twp in Aroostook County made its first appearance since 1988.  Township 14 (Washington County) did not make an appearance in the 2012 Election Results – although its possible that this is actually the entry “Cooper Twps” listed in the Maine Official Election Results.  There are a total of 24 entries of vote results that are not associated with a town (such as “Mattawamkeag Twps” – in this case, the results for this entry are from voters in unincorporated townships that have elections administered by Mattawamkeag).  Actual geographic origin of these votes in these 24 unincorporated township groupings is under investigation.

To facilitate faster generation of Maine Township Maps for elections, significant effort has been expended to create a database that is relevant to the posted election results.  The map above is the first of these to be created based on this new database.  It includes all the census county subdivisions plus all the unincorporated townships split out as defined by the State of Maine – resulting in a beautiful map.  FIPS codes for these non-census townships are created by the Atlas in a manner consistent with the census numbering (no existing FIPS codes exist for these townships).  More Maine maps to be added in the coming days.

New York 2012 Township Map

New York 2012 Township MapAt right is a thumbnail of the 2012 New York Presidential Election results map by county subdivision (click on map for large version).  The 2012 map is very similar to the 2008 New York map.  Of the 997 cities and towns, 926 of them were won by the same party in both 2008 and 2012.  President Obama had 32 pickups, with 40% of these in four Central New York counties (four towns in Oswego, three towns in each Cayuga, Cortland, and Seneca).  The largest pickup is Richmond County (Staten Island Borough), changing from a Republican 4% margin in 2008 to Democratic 2.6% margin – a swing of 10,709 votes, or 6.6%.  Mitt Romney had 39 pickups and were concentrated in Western New York and Southeastern New York (four in each Chautauqua, Dutchess, and Westchester with three in each Otsego and Orange).  His largest pickup is Huntington in Suffolk County (total vote of 91,971), with a swing of 6,866 or 7%. In total, Romney won 631 cities and towns vs. Obama’s 365 (one is a tie).  However, for the most populous cities and towns (those with greater than 10,000 ballots cast), Obama wins 73 to Romney’s 24, including all five New York City boroughs that alone had a combined margin of 1,553,717 votes.  Note that this map requires significant effort to compile as all data by town must be compiled from precinct reports obtained from each individual county board of elections.

New York City Adds 6,436 more 2012 General Election Votes for President

New York County Map Highlighting Kings CountyOn July 2, 2013, the New York City Board of Elections printed a new “Statement and Return Report for Certification General Election – 11/06/2012” for Kings County (also known as Brooklyn Borough), adding a total of 6,470 ballots to the 2012 General Election tally, including 6,436 valid ballots cast for Presidential Candidates (34 ballots were under votes or over votes – referred to in New York as blanks or voids respectively).

Candidate New Votes %New Votes
Obama 5,497 85.42%
Romney 862 13.40%
Stein 46 0.71%
Johnson 27 0.42%
Lindsay 2 0.03%
Goode 1 0.02%
Ron Paul 1 0.02%

The new votes break down as shown in the table at left (figures for Obama reflect the fusion of Democratic and Working Families party ballot lines and Romney votes reflect the fusion of Republican and Conservative party ballot lines). This amended certification on 07/02/2013 follows previous certifications on 12/31/2012 and 3/19/2013. These latest figures have been incorporated into the Atlas (link to New York 2012 Presidential Summary Page. Thanks to @DKElections for the tip on amended results.

Boone County, WV had Largest Swing Percentage in 2012

Boone County, WV tops the list of counties that displayed the largest swing percentage in the 2012 General Presidential Election. West Virginia County Map Highlighting Boone County In the 2008 General Election, Barack Obama won Boone County 54% to 43%. In 2012, Mitt Romney turned around this 10.7% Republican loss into a 31.5% Republican win, defeating Barack Obama 64% to 33%.  The total swing was 42.2% toward the Republican candidate.  This is the first time a Republican has won in Boone County since the 1972 Richard Nixon landslide and only the second time since 1924.

Located in southern West Virginia, adjacent to the south of Kanawha County, Boone County is in the mountain top removal coal mining region in the Appalachian Mountains of southern West Virginia, extreme southwestern Virginia, and eastern Kentucky. The swing percentage towards the Republican candidate amongst many of these more traditionally Democratic counties is impressive as shown in the table below:

County Swing 2008-2012 Region Swing Map
Boone, WV 42.2% Appalachian Swing 2012
Knott, KY 39.7%
McDowell, WV 38.4%
Pike, KY 36.7%
Webster, WV 33.1%
Magoffin, KY 32.8%
Floyd, KY 32.6%
Nicholas, WV 32.0%
Gallatin, IL 31.1%
Wyoming, WV 30.6%

Nine of the top ten swing counties are all located in the same region (darkest blue on the map shows counties where the swing is greater than 30%), a convincing indication of the dislike of many residents of this area to the positions of the incumbent President during his reelection bid.

New Jersey and Connecticut 2012 Swing Maps

New Jersey 2012 Swing MapOne way to look at geographical election trends is the swing map – defined as the change in margin between the top two parties from election to election.  For example, if County A is won by the Democrat in 2008 with 54% of the vote to 46% and by the Republican in 2012 with 51% of the vote to 49%, the swing is 10 percentage points towards the Republican (D+8 to R+2).  The maps can be used to highlight variables of an election such as home state advantage (see  Robert Dole in 1996), candidate positions (example: 2012 shift in eastern Kentucky), and many more.

Another example from 2012 is the New Jersey Swing Map by municipality shown at right (click the map to enlarge).  New Jersey is one of only six states that swung towards the Democratic party in the 2012 General Election (complete list of the 2012 presidential swing results by state).  New Jersey is a unique case in 2012 because just days before the election, the area was struck by a powerful post-tropical cyclone (formerly known as Hurricane Sandy), causing immense damage. Among much misfortune, the storm also disrupted the election process.  The most recent official results by the New Jersey Department of State Division of Elections wasn’t posted until February 6, 2013 and even this tally does not capture all the votes from each county (amended results in Essex, Monmouth, and Morris counties are included in the Atlas, but are not included in the Division of Elections tally).  Analyzing the electoral impact of such an event is complex, 2012 Connecticut Swing Map by Municipality but given the swing map above when compared to the nation as a whole and even nearby states such as Connecticut, it appears to suggest that many citizens of New Jersey responded favorably at the ballot box to the incumbent President Obama’s response to the crisis.