The Warrick County, Indiana Clerk has recently announced a discovery that 3,791 early ballots cast in the 2012 General Election were left uncounted in the official results published. Looking at the data, a comparison of the ballots cast in 2008 and 2012 show an overall decline in total ballots cast of 4,211 (29,195 ballots were cast in 2008 vs 24,984 cast in 2012 – a decline of 14%). This compares with a 4.6% decline in overall turnout state-wide. More strikingly, the total number of absentee ballots dropped from 10,372 to 1,981 or 81%! Another anomaly shows that the number of machine ballots increased to 22,999 from 18,823, an increase of 4,176 votes (22% increase). These data compare with the county voter registration increase of 3,367 voters (+7.2%), causing the overall turnout to fall from 62.5% to 49.9%. The table below summarizes the data:
The turnout of 49.9% voter turnout ranks Warrick fourth from the bottom (89th place), just ahead of Clinton, Switzerland, and Scott. In 2008, Warrick was right in the middle of the pack (40th place). Below is a chart that shows the Warrick County normalized voter turnout from 1980 to 2012 (vs. Registered Voters). This is calculated by subtracting the statewide voter turnout from the voter turnout in Warrick County.
Warrick County, IN Normalized Turnout
The chart highlights the significant decline in normalized turnout for 2012, well outside the normal variable range for the county, pointing to a high probability of an error. Thus far, the Warrick County Clerk has not published an update to the official county vote results for the 2012 General Election. The Atlas will be updated when this occurs. Thanks to Jeff Singer for the tip.
New Jersey 2013 General Election Gubernatorial Map by Municipality
The municipality map for the 2013 race for Governor in New Jersey is complete and shown at right. In this solid Republican win for incumbent Governor Chris Christie, he carried 503 municipalities vs. only 61 won by Democratic challenger Barbara Buono. This is a significant improvement over Christie’s election in 2009 vs. John Corzine, where he won 413 municipalities to Corzine’s 152 (an overall net pickup of 90 for Christie). Buono carried the largest two municipalities of Newark and Jersey City, but only one other (Patterson) in the top 29 municipalities ranked by total votes cast. Buono’s strongest municipality with over 1,000 votes cast was in East Orange (Essex County) where she won 87.6% to 11.3% (a margin of 8,201 votes). Similarly, Christie’s strongest municipality with greater than 1,000 votes cast was in Colts Neck (Monmouth County) , where he won 83.4% to 15.1% (a margin of 2,152 votes). The table below summarizes the contest data:
Buono’s strength was limited to the urban centers surrounding Camden, Trenton, and Newark, while Christie was strong everywhere else – especially in Ocean County and the northwestern portions of the state. Full detailed maps can be viewed on the Atlas page. Forum discussion on this contest is located in this thread.
Wisconsin 2002 Gubernatorial Election Result Map by Municipality
At right is the Wisconsin 2002 General Election Result map for Governor by municipality. This contest was between incumbent Republican Governor Scott McCallum (whom assumed office when Governor Tommy Thompson resigned to become the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in January of 2001), the Democratic candidate Attorney General Jim Doyle, the Libertarian Mayor of Tomah Ed Thompson (the younger brother of former Governor Tommy Thompson), the Green party candidate Jim Young, and several other minor party candidates. The statewide results of the election are summarized in the table below (full statewide results available here):
Wisconsin 2002 General Election Result for Governor
Lt. Gubernatorial Candidate
A. Ed Thompson
The results show an even split in the number of municipalities carried by Republican Scott McCallum and Democrat James Doyle. Doyle won 896 municipalities, with strong showing in the City of Milwaukee, Dane County through the central part of the state and in the Northwest counties of Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland. Scott McCallum won in 905 municipalities, showing strength in the east of the state, from the Milwaukee western suburbs, north and east through the Eastern Ridges and Lowlands. Libertarian Candidate Ed Thompson won 72 municipalities, mostly centered around his home City of Tomah (where he won Monroe County as well as neighboring Juneau County). The overall margin of victory for James Doyle was 65,736 votes – fewer than his 93,126 vote margin in just two municipalities – Milwaukee, where he won 65.8% to 26.4% over his Republican Challenger, a margin of 55,420 votes and in Madison, where he won 62.8% to 18.8% (with 10.5% for Ed Thompson), a margin of 37,706 votes.
The candidates’ best counties with more than 1,000 votes are
Doyle: Superior (Douglas County) with 68.2% to 23.4% for McCallum and 4.5% for Thompson
McCallum: Oostburg (Sheboygan County) with 75.9% to 24.14% for Doyle and 5.15% for Thompson
Thompson: Tomah (Monroe County) with 55.8% to 22.4% for Doyle and 20.4% for McCallum
The margin swing in the 2013 Virginia Governor’s race relative to the 2009 election was nearly 20% towards the Democrats. The 2013 result was Democrat Terry McAuliffe over Republican Ken Cuccinelli by 2.6% (47.8%-45.2%). In the 2009 contest, Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Democrat Creigh Deeds by 17.3% (58.6%-41.3%). As shown by the map, most of the counties and cities in the state swung Democratic. A dozen counties in the Appalachian region bordering West Virginia plus Patrick County swung Republican. Most of these had relatively modest Republican swings. An exception to this, however, are three adjacent counties in the northwest portion of the state: Alleghany, Bath, and Highland along with Covington City (which lies wholly within Alleghany County). These three counties plus city exhibited swing percentages that significantly bucked the statewide swing, recording vote margins that surged Republican by 31%, 51%, 21%, and 26% respectively. Bath County in particular, with a Republican swing percentage of 51% makes for a state-level trend move of 71% (51% Republican swing in the county plus 20% Democratic swing statewide).
Virginia 2013 Governor - Margin Swing
While often such outlying data can suggest an error in the tally, this result is simply a matter of the area voting for favorite son Creigh Deeds in 2009 and returning to the regional voting pattern in 2013. Creigh Deeds is from Bath County and represented the 25th district in the Virginia Senate (In 2009, Bath County, Allegheny County, and Covington City were all within the 25th district). These counties also have very small populations (in 2013, Highland County had only 903 total votes counted, Bath County had 1,213, Allegheny County had 4,136, and Covington City had 1,275). The full swing table (member feature) can be viewed here.
Overall, the result is a solid Republican win for the incumbent in a heavily Democratic state. The last time a Republican won the race for Governor in New Jersey by such a large margin was by Thomas H. Kean in 1985. In 2013, Christie won all but two counties (falling short in Essex and Gloucester) – picking up six more counties relative to his win in 2009 on the back of an 18.6% swing statewide. His strongest showing was in Ocean County (75.7%) and had his largest swing in Hudson County (32.3%) although still coming up short of winning the county by 11.1%. The total votes counted in 2013 are 2,106,377 – a significant drop from 2009, where 2,425,441 votes were tallied (a drop of 319,064). Christie received 95,208 more votes vs. his run in 2009 while Buono received 284,792 fewer votes in 2013 than Jon S. Corzine did on the Democratic ticket in 2009. Full results are available for exploration here.
The 2013 General Election results for Governor are now official. The certified results from the Virginia State Board of Elections are Terry McAuliffe (D) with 1,069,789 (47.75%), Ken Cuccinelli II (R) with 1,013,354 (45.23%), Robert Sarvis (L) with 146,084 (6.52%), and 11,087 write-in votes (0.49%). This is a Democratic pickup resulting from a popular vote swing of almost 20% relative to the 2009 Gubernatorial Election. Cuccinelli’s best county was Scott (75.6%) and best city was Poquoson (67.7%) – he also carried the populous Virginia Beach City with 47.6%. McAuliff’s best county was Charles City County with 61.3% and best city was Petersburg with 77.8%. McAuliffe’s overall margin of 56,435 votes is less than his margin in the single county of Fairfax, where he won 58.4% to 36.2% (a 68,065 vote margin). Robert Sarvis had his best showing in Alleghany County (11.8%) and the city of Covington (12.6%).
The preliminary unofficial 2013 General Election results for Governor in New Jersey and Virginia have been posted. In New Jersey, Governor Chris Christie was re-elected by a margin of 60% to 38% with 1.6% voting for other candidates. This matched the New Jersey polls quite closely – with the appearance that the small undecided votes broke for Buono.
In Virginia, the results as reported by the Virginia State Board of Elections had Republican candidate Ken Cuccinelli ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe for much of the evening – only when 88% of the precincts had been counted did McAuliffe take the lead. This was due to the slower reporting of a number of urban precincts. In the end, the result was a closer-than-expected 2.5% margin for McAuliffe at 47.8% to Cuccinelli’s 45.3%. Libertarian Robert Sarvis received 6.5% (slightly below his polling average). The Virginia pre-election polls averaged a 6% margin for McAuliffe.
Unofficial Results of the special election held for U.S. Senate in New Jersey are now available. This contest, held on the unusual date of Wednesday, October 16, 2013, was between Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D), businessman and former Mayor of Bogota, NJ, Steve Lonegan (R), and six minor party candidates. The preliminary, unofficial results are Booker 54.8%, Lonegan 44.1%, and others 1.2%. Total votes counted thus far are a mere 1.3 million – only 38% of the votes cast in the 2012 General Election where 3.4 million votes were counted for U.S. Senator. Nonetheless, the results of the special election mirror quite closely that of the 2012 General. There was an 8.7% Republican swing and Lonegan picked up the counties of Salem and Somerset, but it wasn’t enough to achieve a win.
The 2012 Presidential Election Results map for Michigan by county subdivision (City, Township, and Charter Township) is now complete. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won a total of 1,133 cities and townships while Barack Obama and Joe Biden won in 382 (eight were ties). This is a significant number of pickups for the Republican ticket vs. 2008, where Obama and Biden won in 684 cities and townships vs. the McCain/Palin ticket’s 830. Similar to many other states, the municipalities with the largest populations voted overwhelmingly Democratic, with Obama/Biden winning nine of the top ten (Detroit, Grand Rapids, Warren, Ann Arbor, Sterling Heights, Clinton, Lansing, Canton, Farmington Hills; Romney won Livonia) with a net margin of 385,875 votes. In the city of Detroit alone, Obama/Biden won 97.6% to 2.1%, a margin of 275,724 votes. Full details can be viewed on the Michigan 2012 Town page.