The New York project (first discussed in this weblog entry) has made a lot of progress. The township maps and data are now complete for all counties for the general elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004. The precinct data is now complete for all counties outside of the five New York City Boroughs for those four elections (New York City Borough precinct data is complete for 2000 and 2004). This was no small task as most counties required hand-entry of precinct data. In addition, the further complication of New York’s fusion system added an average of four more ballot lines per election. Overall this required a lot of number typing. For example, the counties of Erie, Monroe, and Nassau had a total of 2,897 precincts in 1992 (only to grow larger by 2004). With the exception of Monroe in 2004, all three of these counties required manual entry of the data between 1992 and 2004 from the canvass books (they are legal size documents about 3 cm thick). Total precincts for New York in 1992 are 9,764 (outside of NYC).

The New York township map for 1992 is partiularly interesting. Perot was very strong in Western New York, winning numerous towns in Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Erie, Wyoming, and Niagara counties (Perot finished second in Wyoming and Cattaraugus counties and a very close third in Niagara County). Perot also had a strong showing in central New York in an area up the I-81 corridor from Binghamton through Northern Jefferson County, having won a number of towns in the region. Perot placed well-enough in this region such that in most towns, the winning candidate received less than 40% of the vote. Bush was strong through the the Adirondacks, perifieral Catskills, and the Genesee River Vally counties (Steuben , Allegany, Livingston, Ontario, Yates, Genesee, Orleans, Wayne). Clinton had strong support in New York City and the large upstate cities (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany), in the northern tier (St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties), Ithaca, and the central Catskills (Ulster and Sullivan Counties).

County-level township maps for all counties in these four years are now available on-line to members. Township data and precinct data is also available on-line to members. There are also detailed spreadsheets with boundary codes that include both unfused and fused data for the Presidential vote at the precinct, township, and county level. See the store page if for purchasing information on the spreadsheets.

The map depicting the results for President in the state of New York by township for the 2004 General Election is now complete. New York is one of the states that allocates all ballot types to the appropriate precinct. Therefore, the results by city and township are exact.

The image shown to the right has 218 municipalities won by Kerry (22%) and 779 by Bush (78%). There were no ties in 2004. Kerry’s best municipality is Bronx Borough with 82.8%. Kerry received the lowest percentage in the Town of Jasper (Steuben County) with only 17.21%. Bush’s top location is the Town of Morehouse (Hamilton County) with 81.6% (71 votes to Kerry’s 15). Bush’s worst locality is the college city of Ithaca (Tompkins County) where Nader picked up 3.1% leaving Bush with only 15.5%. Some interesting statistics:

• Kerry Municipalities: Average Votes Cast: 23,227; Median Votes Cast: 4,331
• Bush Municpalities: Average Votes Cast: 2,994; Median Votes Cast: 1,212

As was evident in 2000, Bush carries many more of the rural, low-population townships, while Kerry scores solidly in the cities. To wit, in Kerry’s top 10 are four of the New York City Boroughs, the cities of Buffalo and Albany, as well as the City of Mount Vernon (Westchester county). These seven municipalities cast almost 2.5 million votes for President and rack up a margin of 1,354,849 votes for Kerry (this is, remarkably, about 3,000 votes more than Kerry’s state-wide margin of 1,351,713). The remaining three in the top 10 are the City of Ithaca, the surrounding the Town of Ithaca, and the relatively small Town of Woodstock (of 1960s fame in Ulster county) with 4,072 ballots cast. By contrast, Bush’s top 10 have an average total votes cast of 490 with names that are not widely known (All in Hamilton, Allegany, and Steuben Counties).

A larger township map as well as township data are available to members (New York by City and Town). In addition, the county-township maps are also available to members on each of the New York county summary pages such as my original home county of Ononadaga! Enjoy.

Cook County 2004

Cook County 2000

The Chicago metropolitan area, including Cook County and the surrounding five counties (Lake, Kane, McHenry, DuPage, and Will) dominates the state with 65.5% of the population. Winning this region goes a long way towards adding the state’s 21 electoral votes to one’s column. With the well-documented rural-urban split of support between Republicans and Democrats, Illinois poses a particular challenge for Republicans to overcome the heavily urban Chicago area. In 2004, Kerry won Illinois handily (55% to 44%), carrying Cook County 1,439,724 to 597,405 - a margin of almost 850,000 votes (41 percentage points!). Bush won the net returns from all the remaining Illinois Counties 1,748,541 to 1,451,826, a margin of about 300,000 votes - a figure that falls well short of overcoming Kerry’s 41 point margin in Cook County.

The trend in Illinois is also not good for the Repulicans. Although Bush increased his percentage in Illinois as a whole between 2000 and 2004 from 42.6% to 44.5% (or 1.9 points), this figure is a full point below his national average (to 50.7% from 47.8% or 2.9 points). In Cook County, Bush’s share of the vote fell one half of a percentage point to 28.7%. The decrease in popularity coupled with an increase in turout added almost 100,000 votes to the Democratic margin between 2000 and 2004. In addition, Bush lost six of the suburban townships in 2004 that he won in 2000 (he didn’t win any that he lost in 2000). Only two townships increased Bush’s margin between 2000 and 2004 (Orland and Lemont - two of the furthest townships from Chicago - in the southwest portion of Cook County).

The Atlas is in the proces of adding additional precinct and township data for Illinois in 2004. DuPage, Kane, Lake, and Sangamon are now available (in addition to Cook) for those interested in further study.

As the off-year general election approaches, I’ve added the 2001 Gubernatorial Election results to the special Gubernatorial section. Only two states hold elections for the top statewide executive office in the year after the Presidential Election (Virginia and New Jersey). Subsequent to the casting of ballots on November 8, 2005, the Atlas will add the two states’ returns for Governor. Pictured above right is the county-wide map of returns for Governor for the Commonwealth of Virginia in the 2001 Gubernatorial Election where Democrat Mark Warner defeated Republican Mark Earley 52% to 47%. (Democratic wins in Red, Republican in Blue)

One of the most common questions received here at the atlas is whether there are data for U.S. President tabulated by Congressional District. Many of the inquiries are from visitors whom wish to perform an analysis on how the results of the Electoral College would be different using a district method (such as that currently in use by Maine or Nebraska). The Atlas currently has an incomplete (although growing) set of data for U.S. President compiled by Congressional District for the 2004 general election. The problems facing such a compilation are many.

As an example of the problems encountered, consider the state of Georgia. With thirteen congressional districts to be drawn across 159 counties, the state legislature saw fit (for some reason) to gerrymander the congressional districts such that the boundaries split 33 counties when the decennial redistricting took place following the 2000 census. To compile the results, the data from each of these counties must be obtained at the precinct level and cross-referenced with a key that describes to which district each precinct belongs. However, it turns out that many precincts do not belong to a single district - the CD boundaries actually split precincts. For example, Cobb County has 19 precincts split between districts (either between district 5 and 11 or district 6 and 11). These votes, unfortunately, can not be allocated to a congressional district. Furthermore, all counties in Georgia have a dedicated precinct that includes all absentee ballots cast in the county into a single precinct (this is different from other states, such as New York, where absentee ballots are counted with their individual precincts). In all 33 of the split counties, the absentee ballots can not be allocated to congressional districts. Typically, in 2004, the absentee ballots comprise 10 to 20 percent of the total votes cast in the county. Like absentee ballots, provisional ballots also have their own “precinct” and can not be allocated (although the number of votes in this category is signficantly smaller than absentees or split precincts).

Overall, in Georgia, about 490,000 votes can not be allocated to the correct congressional district (about 15% of total votes cast state-wide). This is a relatively significant figure that may impact the accuracy of the results for President by Congressional District. Its also quite unfortunate for those of us who prefer precicsion in their data.

For those of you keeping track, I have made several small corrections to the “official” 2000 election data recently in South Carolina, North Dakota, and New York. In SC, the votes from Richland County, Ward 13 were omitted from the statewide results - adding 489 votes for Bush, 478 votes for Gore, 79 votes for Nader, 12 for Browne, 1 for Buchanan and 1 for Hagelin (a gain of 11 votes for Bush). In New York, the State Board of Elections seems to have a problem transcribing the figures from the county canvasses. There are four counties (Cattaraugus, Columbia, Livingston, and Wyoming) in which vote figures were given to the incorrect candidates (typically between minor parties, but also between a minor party and Gore under the Working Families party - where fusion merges these figures with the Democratic and Liberal party votes). There were also errors in Albany County. The net is that Gore gains 210 votes and Bush remains the same. A few changes to figures for Nader, Buchanan, and Hagelin in North Dakota rounds out the changes to 2000.

Election results for the Democratic Primary race have been updated for CA, FL, MD, NY, and TX. Official county-level data and maps have been posted to the site. I am still working on the congressional district results for MD, CA, FL, and NY (the TX SOS did not have Congressional District results on its website). Illinois releases their official canvass later this week. Wisconsin is still figuring out how to write a complete pdf file of their results (they seem to be having some “technical difficulties”).

Well, I was a bit optimistic in my attempt to compile the official results from the Super Tuesday states this weekend. Turns out that most states have not posted official results yet. California doesn’t release their canvass until April 10. I do have updated data for Georgia. New York and Rhode Island have results posted, but no indication whether or not they are official. The Utah primary results (from Feb 24) are not on-line yet. Although Wisconsin has posted official results, they omitted the vote totals from Lafayette County. I’m going to give the agencies a couple of additional weeks before I update the primary results on the site.

Just thought I would share my current undertaking with regard to the site (in addition to adding the primary results listed below). I am in the process of compiling, from official county canvasses, the complete precinct-level Presidential Election results for New York for the last three general elections (1992, 1996, and 2000). I would like to have the most comprehensive and accurate county, city/town, and precinct-level results for the state of New York on the web (BTW, New York is my original home state, having grown up in Onondaga County). I have a stack of paper here a foot tall and have completed 45 counties, adding 1992 city/town maps today for Saratoga, Alabany, Chautauqua, Columbia, Oneida, Orange, Rensselaer, Schoharie, Schuyler, and Tioga. I’ll add the city/town and precinct data for these counties in a few days (I’ll add a few more counties before performing the data upload). There are still several large urban counties to go (including Suffolk, Nassau, Westchester, Rockland, Monroe, Erie, and the five boroughs of New York City).

In particular, the 1992 township map is very interesting… a partial map is available to members by clicking on the “Town” button on the 1992 New York page. The 1996 and 2000 city/town maps are already complete. I have also discovered several mistakes in the statewide Canvasses published by the New York State Board of Elections. I will be making corrections to the data and adding notes to signify the changes.

The Wisconsin Primary turned out to be more competitive than expected. In my opinion, a real problem with the 2004 Democratic Primary schedule has been the crowded nature of the contests. The schedule gives little time for the candidates to campaign in each state and little time for the voters to size-up those seeking the Democratic nomination. In Wisconsin, a single primary contested by multiple candidates resulted in a much closer result. Kerry “wins” the contest with 39.7% of the vote, followed by Edwards at 34.3% and Dean at 18.3%. The county map shown here is color-coded with red for Kerry and green for Edwards - with the various shades showing percenage of the vote in decades (>30%, >40%, etc.) Note that even though Kerry “wins”, he shares the delegates with the top three candidates (those that receive more than 15% in any of the congressional districts and state-wide at large). The current result predicts 30 delegates for Kerry to 24 for Edwards and 13 for Dean. Edwards won in two of the eight congressional districts (the first and fifth) and Kerry wins the remainder.

From a regional point-of-view, Kerry was the strongest in the north-west of the state and his best county was Menominee (62.7% - it is also the home of the Menominee Native American Tribe). Edwards had a better showing in the counties to the north and west of Milwaukee. His best county was Waukesha with 42% of the vote. Dean did not win a single county - likely a decidely disappointing result - and received the greatest percentage of votes in Douglas and Portage Counties (about 25%).