Category Archives: Election Results

New Jersey and Connecticut 2012 Swing Maps

New Jersey 2012 Swing MapOne way to look at geographical election trends is the swing map – defined as the change in margin between the top two parties from election to election.  For example, if County A is won by the Democrat in 2008 with 54% of the vote to 46% and by the Republican in 2012 with 51% of the vote to 49%, the swing is 10 percentage points towards the Republican (D+8 to R+2).  The maps can be used to highlight variables of an election such as home state advantage (see  Robert Dole in 1996), candidate positions (example: 2012 shift in eastern Kentucky), and many more.

Another example from 2012 is the New Jersey Swing Map by municipality shown at right (click the map to enlarge).  New Jersey is one of only six states that swung towards the Democratic party in the 2012 General Election (complete list of the 2012 presidential swing results by state).  New Jersey is a unique case in 2012 because just days before the election, the area was struck by a powerful post-tropical cyclone (formerly known as Hurricane Sandy), causing immense damage. Among much misfortune, the storm also disrupted the election process.  The most recent official results by the New Jersey Department of State Division of Elections wasn’t posted until February 6, 2013 and even this tally does not capture all the votes from each county (amended results in Essex, Monmouth, and Morris counties are included in the Atlas, but are not included in the Division of Elections tally).  Analyzing the electoral impact of such an event is complex, 2012 Connecticut Swing Map by Municipality but given the swing map above when compared to the nation as a whole and even nearby states such as Connecticut, it appears to suggest that many citizens of New Jersey responded favorably at the ballot box to the incumbent President Obama’s response to the crisis.

Wilson County, KS Votes are Double-Counted in 2012

Kansas County Map Highlighting Wilson CountyThe 2012 General Election official Vote Totals as reported by the Kansas Secretary of State Elections & Legislative division includes results from Wilson County that are double-counted.  Wilson County has a relatively small population of 9,409 as enumerated by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2010 (estimated population of July 2012 is 9,105) and is located east of Wichita and south of Topeka as shown in the map at right.  The table below shows the officially reported results for President in Wilson County:

Official Reported
Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential Candidate Political Party Popular Vote
Willard Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Republican 5,650 76.00%
Barack H. Obama Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Democratic 1,636 22.01%
Gary Johnson James P. Gray Libertarian 94 1.26%
Chuck Baldwin Joseph Martin Reform 54 0.73%

The sum of the votes cast for President as reported is 7,434. However, the Kansas 2012 General Election Official Turnout Report shows only 3,752 ballots cast and 5,845 registered voters in Wilson County.  Furthermore, the total counted votes for President in 2008 was 4,121.  Upon inspection of the 2012 Kansas General Election Results by Precinct, it becomes clear that the votes for each candidate are counted twice.  The Atlas database has been updated to reflect the correct data.

Vigo County, IN Extends Bellwether Streak

Vigo County, Indiana is the the most prominent bellwether of presidential elections in the country – voting for the winning candidate in every election from 1956 through 2012.  Indiana County Map Highlighting Vigo County Furthermore, Vigo County has picked the winner in 30 of the last 32 Presidential Elections.  It barely missed in 1952, voting for Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower by 0.07% and a more substantial 10.6% miss in 1908 by choosing William Bryan over William Howard Taft.  The list of hits, however, is much longer – Vigo extended its streak in 2012 by voting for Barack Obama – although barely with a margin of only 0.86% (49.3% to 48.4%).  The table below compares the results in Vigo County to the National results for the years 1888 through 2012.  The average margin delta (difference between the margin in Vigo County and the margin nationwide) for the last 124 years is only 4%.  The accompanying bar chart is a graphical representation of these data.

Year National Vigo Nat Margin Vigo Margin Margin ∆
1888 Rep Rep 0.83% 1.36% -0.5%
1892 Dem Dem 3.01% 3.40% 0.4%
1896 Rep Rep 4.31% 2.95% 1.4%
1900 Rep Rep 6.13% 3.25% 2.9%
1904 Rep Rep 18.83% 20.19% -1.4%
1908 Rep Dem 8.53% 2.07% 10.6%
1912 Dem Dem 14.44% 12.56% -1.9%
1916 Dem Dem 3.12% 9.92% 6.8%
1920 Rep Rep 26.17% 7.89% 18.3%
1924 Rep Rep 25.22% 17.66% 7.6%
1928 Rep Rep 17.42% 10.61% 6.8%
1932 Dem Dem 17.76% 16.77% -1.0%
1936 Dem Dem 24.25% 31.02% 6.8%
1940 Dem Dem 9.95% 11.64% 1.7%
1944 Dem Dem 7.49% 6.83% -0.7%
1948 Dem Dem 4.48% 15.05% 10.6%
1952 Rep Dem 10.85% 0.07% 10.9%
1956 Rep Rep 15.40% 1.14% 14.3%
1960 Dem Dem 0.16% 0.33% 0.2%
1964 Dem Dem 22.58% 18.41% -4.2%
1968 Rep Rep 0.70% 1.04% -0.3%
1972 Rep Rep 23.15% 22.13% 1.0%
1976 Dem Dem 2.06% 2.32% 0.3%
1980 Rep Rep 9.74% 10.47% -0.7%
1984 Rep Rep 18.22% 17.41% 0.8%
1988 Rep Rep 7.73% 6.63% 1.1%
1992 Dem Dem 5.56% 5.26% -0.3%
1996 Dem Dem 8.52% 5.77% -2.8%
2000 Rep Rep √* 0.52% 1.24% -0.7%
2004 Rep Rep 2.46% 6.45% -4.0%
2008 Dem Dem 7.26% 15.77% 8.5%
2012 Dem Dem 3.85% 0.86% -3.0%

*In 2000, the popular vote went to Albert Gore, Jr., but the electoral vote went to George W. Bush.
Vigo County, Indiana Bar Chart

Ron Paul Wins (Concord Unincorporated Township)

Somerset 2012 Presidential Results by Town

Somerset County, ME 2012 Presidential Election Results

Hidden in the 2012 Presidential Election data is a small unincorporated township in Maine that was won by Ron Paul. There were a total of three votes cast – all three were write-in votes for Ron Paul – both Obama and Romney came up empty. The 2012 general election is the first time that the Maine Secretary of State Bureau of Corporations, Elections & Commissions has published presidential election results for Concord Twp. Although not actively running for President in the 2012 General Election, Ron Paul was certified as a declared write-in candidate for President in Maine, allowing his write-in votes to be counted (see 2012 Maine Declared Write-in Candidates).

The image to the right shows the full results by township for Somerset County, ME in the 2012 General Election for President.  Concord Twp is located in Somerset County on the west side of the Kennebec River to the north of Embden Town (colored in dark yellow on the map).   Concord Twp is included with Lexington Twp to form the census “Central Somerset UT”.

In spite of the plethora of low population towns in New England, wins by “third party” candidates are quite rare.  Not since Ross Perot in 1996, has a third party won in any New England town (Perot won three and tied in a fourth in 1996.  Perot won a substantial number of towns in 1992).  Nader tied Al Gore in 2000 in Pinkham’s Grant, NH 3-3.

Preliminary MA Special U.S. Senate Results

MA Senate MapThe 2013 Special United States Senate Election in Massachusetts preliminary results have been posted. The contest between Democratic Congressman Ed Markey, representing the Massachusetts 5th district and Republican Gabriel Gomez has ended with a 54.8% to 44.8% victory for Markey. This is a Democratic hold of the seat vacated by now Secretary of State John Kerry.

U.S. Senate Election Results Upgrade

The Atlas results database has been upgraded to support the event in which two U.S. Senate races occur in the same year from the same state. The term “class” has been added to distinguish between the elections. There are three U.S. Senate classes that alternate every two years – repeating every six. 2010 is a class 3 election. There also happen to be three Special Elections that are also taking place on November 2, 2010 – Delaware (Class 2), West Virginia (Class 1), and New York (Class 1). Delaware and West Virginia do not have a Class 3 Senate seat, and therefore have only one contest on November 2. New York, however, does have a Class 3 Senate seat and has two Senate contests on Nov 2. To support this, I’ve upgraded all general election contests from 1990 through 2010 – and all the past special two-senate-from-one-state contests not previously included in the results menus are now available. These include 1992 CA & ND, 1994 TN, 1996 KS, 2008 MS & WY and 2010 NY.

Washington 2008 Precinct Map

WA Precinct Map The map at the right shows a small version of the statewide results in Washington of the 2008 General Election for President by precinct (Obama in Red, McCain in Blue). This was made possible because the Washington Secretary of State has posted all the precinct-level GIS shape files. Most of the shape files line up with the county precinct data (although there are a number of discrepancies). The map link to the right brings you to the forum topic discussion on the 2008 Presidential Results by Precinct in Washington. The maps provide a very detailed geographic breakdown of the results, clearly showing the urban-rural split that has developed between the Republican and Democratic regions of support. Additional tweaking of the map is planned to incorporate the closest match to precinct boundaries used in the 2008 General Election for several counties.

Massachusetts Special Senate Election Results

The preliminary (unofficial) results of the 2010 Massachusetts Special Senate Election are available. In a surprise, Republican candidate Scott Brown defeated Democratic candidate Martha Coakley 52% to 47%. This result is actually very similar to the 2002 Gubernatorial Election Result where Mitt Romney defeated Shannon O’Brien by 5 percentage points (50% – 45%). Also, interestingly, the voter turnout for the snowy January 19 Special Election actually exceeded the turnout in both the 2002 and 2006 General Elections (preliminary figures show 2,249,026 votes in the special election vs. 2,194,179 votes in the 2002 General Election and 2,219,779 votes in the 2006 General Election).

New York Township Map 2008

The 2008 New York Presidential General Election township map is now complete. New York Township Map 2008. The precinct data was collected by contacting each of the 57 (non-New York City) Counties individually. The precinct data was aggregated by City and Town to produce this map.

Obama was victorious in 372 cities and towns to McCain’s 623 (there were two ties). However, Obama’s 372 victories were in places of considerably higher population – those 372 cities and towns cast 5,961,925 votes for Presidential Candidates, whereas in McCain’s 623 cities, and towns, a far less 1,679,564 votes were cast.

Relative to 2004, Obama increased Democratic victories by 154 (a 70% increase), many of the Republican-to-Democratic flips were in Upstate suburbs, the North Country (Northern Adirondacks and Quebec border), and in the Catskill region. Three towns flipped from Kerry to McCain (Throop (Cayuga), Brant (Erie), and Sangerfield (Oneida)).

Primary Timelines

The site has a new feature – timelines for the 2008 Republican and Democratic Primaries.  These pages show a summary of all the contests in chronological order, including vote percentages, estimated delegates, winning candidates, summary national map, pie charts, and county-map icons.  Links are provided for each state summary results page.  The timelines will automatically update following each event.