Category Archives: Election Results

Maine 2012 General Election Township Map – President

Maine 2012 Presidential Election Results by Town The 2012 Presidential Election Map by Town for the State of Maine has been added to the Atlas (at right – click for a larger image). The results for Maine are a challenge to map because the Maine Secretary of State lists results for many individual unincorporated townships that the US Census Bureau aggregates into larger geographic regions. For example, the official election results in Washington County include a separate entry for Edmunds Twp (census aggregates into East Central Washington UT), Brookton Twp (census aggregated into North Washington UT), etc. In total, there are 26 unincorporated townships in the 2012 General Election results that are not listed as separate geographic unincorporated townships by the US Census Bureau. To further complicate matters, Maine tends to change which of these townships report from year to year.  In 2012, first-time listings include Concord and Spring Lake Twp (Somerset County), Lang Twp (Franklin County), T11 R4, T12 R13, T15 R6, T15 R9, TD R2 (Aroostook County), T7 SD (Hancock County).  E Twp in Aroostook County made its first appearance since 1988.  Township 14 (Washington County) did not make an appearance in the 2012 Election Results – although its possible that this is actually the entry “Cooper Twps” listed in the Maine Official Election Results.  There are a total of 24 entries of vote results that are not associated with a town (such as “Mattawamkeag Twps” – in this case, the results for this entry are from voters in unincorporated townships that have elections administered by Mattawamkeag).  Actual geographic origin of these votes in these 24 unincorporated township groupings is under investigation.

To facilitate faster generation of Maine Township Maps for elections, significant effort has been expended to create a database that is relevant to the posted election results.  The map above is the first of these to be created based on this new database.  It includes all the census county subdivisions plus all the unincorporated townships split out as defined by the State of Maine – resulting in a beautiful map.  FIPS codes for these non-census townships are created by the Atlas in a manner consistent with the census numbering (no existing FIPS codes exist for these townships).  More Maine maps to be added in the coming days.

Official 2004 Write-in Votes Added to the Atlas Database in DE and NY

The Atlas database has been updated to include additional Write-in Votes for President for the 2004 General Election in New York and Delaware.  The state of Delaware publishes a “results book” after each election cycle.  This paper publication (more recently provided as a more convenient pdf) includes more complete results, including official write-in votes that are not presented on the official election results posted on Delaware Commissioner of Elections 2004 Election Results web page.  The Delaware 2004 Election Results book includes a total of 80 write-in votes for President (three are for Róger Calero the Socialist Workers candidate, the remaining are not cast for any of the other national candidates).

New York also printed a more recent (and unlabeled) version of the  the 2004 Election Results for President and Vice President that includes more votes for qualified write-in candidates.  This document has a creation date of May 9, 2005, but is not labeled as an amended version.  It includes write-in votes for David Cobb, Michael A. Peroutka, and Bill Van Auken in a number of counties that were left blank in the December 2004 version of the document.  The Peroutka vote increases from 207 to 363, Cobb from 87 to 138, and Van Auken from 2 to 4.  This newer report, however, does not include any qualified write-in votes from the five New York City boroughs.

Lake County, TN Votes Double-Counted in 2004 General Election

A second example of double-counted votes was discovered this week – this time its Lake County, TN in the 2004 General Election. This discovery is an outcome of viewing the new statistics tables described in the previous entry. When examining the table for top percentage change in total votes Tennessee County Map Highlighting Lake County cast for President relative to the previous election, Lake County, Tennessee popped up as #3 on the increasing column with 113.13% in 2004 followed by a precipitous decrease of 52.78% in 2008 – a sign of a high-probability error.  Official results obtained by the Lake County Election Commission confirms the correct data as follows:

As Reported from the Lake County Election Commission
Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential Candidate Political Party Popular Vote
John Kerry John Edwards Democratic 1,317 55.6%
George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 1,039 43.8%
Ralph Nader Peter Camejo Independent 8 0.3%
Michael Peroutka Charles Baldwin Independent 5 0.2%
Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna Independent 1 0.0%

The figures in the table are all exactly one half those reported by the Tennessee Secretary of State in the November 2, 2004 Election Results.  The correct data from the Lake County Election Commission have been updated on the Atlas.

New Election Statistics Tables

The statistics page for each Presidential, US Senatorial, and Gubernatorial Election have been updated to include a new set of eight tables. Four of these highlight the states and counties with the largest swings from the previous election (both in raw votes and percentages). Additional tables also present states and counties with the largest change in total votes cast for the office (both as raw votes and percentages) to highlight some of the fastest growing and shrinking counties or the level of enthusiasm from election to election. An example swing percentage table from the 2012 Presidential Statistics is shown below:

States with Largest Vote Swing Percentage

Republican Democratic
Utah 19.87% Alaska 7.55%
West Virginia 13.65% New Jersey 2.21%
Montana 11.26% Mississippi 1.68%
Indiana 11.21% Louisiana 1.42%
North Dakota 10.97% New York 1.32%

New York 2012 Township Map

New York 2012 Township MapAt right is a thumbnail of the 2012 New York Presidential Election results map by county subdivision (click on map for large version).  The 2012 map is very similar to the 2008 New York map.  Of the 997 cities and towns, 926 of them were won by the same party in both 2008 and 2012.  President Obama had 32 pickups, with 40% of these in four Central New York counties (four towns in Oswego, three towns in each Cayuga, Cortland, and Seneca).  The largest pickup is Richmond County (Staten Island Borough), changing from a Republican 4% margin in 2008 to Democratic 2.6% margin – a swing of 10,709 votes, or 6.6%.  Mitt Romney had 39 pickups and were concentrated in Western New York and Southeastern New York (four in each Chautauqua, Dutchess, and Westchester with three in each Otsego and Orange).  His largest pickup is Huntington in Suffolk County (total vote of 91,971), with a swing of 6,866 or 7%. In total, Romney won 631 cities and towns vs. Obama’s 365 (one is a tie).  However, for the most populous cities and towns (those with greater than 10,000 ballots cast), Obama wins 73 to Romney’s 24, including all five New York City boroughs that alone had a combined margin of 1,553,717 votes.  Note that this map requires significant effort to compile as all data by town must be compiled from precinct reports obtained from each individual county board of elections.

New York City Adds 6,436 more 2012 General Election Votes for President

New York County Map Highlighting Kings CountyOn July 2, 2013, the New York City Board of Elections printed a new “Statement and Return Report for Certification General Election – 11/06/2012” for Kings County (also known as Brooklyn Borough), adding a total of 6,470 ballots to the 2012 General Election tally, including 6,436 valid ballots cast for Presidential Candidates (34 ballots were under votes or over votes – referred to in New York as blanks or voids respectively).

Candidate New Votes %New Votes
Obama 5,497 85.42%
Romney 862 13.40%
Stein 46 0.71%
Johnson 27 0.42%
Lindsay 2 0.03%
Goode 1 0.02%
Ron Paul 1 0.02%

The new votes break down as shown in the table at left (figures for Obama reflect the fusion of Democratic and Working Families party ballot lines and Romney votes reflect the fusion of Republican and Conservative party ballot lines). This amended certification on 07/02/2013 follows previous certifications on 12/31/2012 and 3/19/2013. These latest figures have been incorporated into the Atlas (link to New York 2012 Presidential Summary Page. Thanks to @DKElections for the tip on amended results.

Boone County, WV had Largest Swing Percentage in 2012

Boone County, WV tops the list of counties that displayed the largest swing percentage in the 2012 General Presidential Election. West Virginia County Map Highlighting Boone County In the 2008 General Election, Barack Obama won Boone County 54% to 43%. In 2012, Mitt Romney turned around this 10.7% Republican loss into a 31.5% Republican win, defeating Barack Obama 64% to 33%.  The total swing was 42.2% toward the Republican candidate.  This is the first time a Republican has won in Boone County since the 1972 Richard Nixon landslide and only the second time since 1924.

Located in southern West Virginia, adjacent to the south of Kanawha County, Boone County is in the mountain top removal coal mining region in the Appalachian Mountains of southern West Virginia, extreme southwestern Virginia, and eastern Kentucky. The swing percentage towards the Republican candidate amongst many of these more traditionally Democratic counties is impressive as shown in the table below:

County Swing 2008-2012 Region Swing Map
Boone, WV 42.2% Appalachian Swing 2012
Knott, KY 39.7%
McDowell, WV 38.4%
Pike, KY 36.7%
Webster, WV 33.1%
Magoffin, KY 32.8%
Floyd, KY 32.6%
Nicholas, WV 32.0%
Gallatin, IL 31.1%
Wyoming, WV 30.6%

Nine of the top ten swing counties are all located in the same region (darkest blue on the map shows counties where the swing is greater than 30%), a convincing indication of the dislike of many residents of this area to the positions of the incumbent President during his reelection bid.

New Jersey and Connecticut 2012 Swing Maps

New Jersey 2012 Swing MapOne way to look at geographical election trends is the swing map – defined as the change in margin between the top two parties from election to election.  For example, if County A is won by the Democrat in 2008 with 54% of the vote to 46% and by the Republican in 2012 with 51% of the vote to 49%, the swing is 10 percentage points towards the Republican (D+8 to R+2).  The maps can be used to highlight variables of an election such as home state advantage (see  Robert Dole in 1996), candidate positions (example: 2012 shift in eastern Kentucky), and many more.

Another example from 2012 is the New Jersey Swing Map by municipality shown at right (click the map to enlarge).  New Jersey is one of only six states that swung towards the Democratic party in the 2012 General Election (complete list of the 2012 presidential swing results by state).  New Jersey is a unique case in 2012 because just days before the election, the area was struck by a powerful post-tropical cyclone (formerly known as Hurricane Sandy), causing immense damage. Among much misfortune, the storm also disrupted the election process.  The most recent official results by the New Jersey Department of State Division of Elections wasn’t posted until February 6, 2013 and even this tally does not capture all the votes from each county (amended results in Essex, Monmouth, and Morris counties are included in the Atlas, but are not included in the Division of Elections tally).  Analyzing the electoral impact of such an event is complex, 2012 Connecticut Swing Map by Municipality but given the swing map above when compared to the nation as a whole and even nearby states such as Connecticut, it appears to suggest that many citizens of New Jersey responded favorably at the ballot box to the incumbent President Obama’s response to the crisis.

Wilson County, KS Votes are Double-Counted in 2012

Kansas County Map Highlighting Wilson CountyThe 2012 General Election official Vote Totals as reported by the Kansas Secretary of State Elections & Legislative division includes results from Wilson County that are double-counted.  Wilson County has a relatively small population of 9,409 as enumerated by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2010 (estimated population of July 2012 is 9,105) and is located east of Wichita and south of Topeka as shown in the map at right.  The table below shows the officially reported results for President in Wilson County:

Official Reported
Presidential Candidate Vice Presidential Candidate Political Party Popular Vote
Willard Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Republican 5,650 76.00%
Barack H. Obama Joseph R. Biden, Jr. Democratic 1,636 22.01%
Gary Johnson James P. Gray Libertarian 94 1.26%
Chuck Baldwin Joseph Martin Reform 54 0.73%

The sum of the votes cast for President as reported is 7,434. However, the Kansas 2012 General Election Official Turnout Report shows only 3,752 ballots cast and 5,845 registered voters in Wilson County.  Furthermore, the total counted votes for President in 2008 was 4,121.  Upon inspection of the 2012 Kansas General Election Results by Precinct, it becomes clear that the votes for each candidate are counted twice.  The Atlas database has been updated to reflect the correct data.

Vigo County, IN Extends Bellwether Streak

Vigo County, Indiana is the the most prominent bellwether of presidential elections in the country – voting for the winning candidate in every election from 1956 through 2012.  Indiana County Map Highlighting Vigo County Furthermore, Vigo County has picked the winner in 30 of the last 32 Presidential Elections.  It barely missed in 1952, voting for Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower by 0.07% and a more substantial 10.6% miss in 1908 by choosing William Bryan over William Howard Taft.  The list of hits, however, is much longer – Vigo extended its streak in 2012 by voting for Barack Obama – although barely with a margin of only 0.86% (49.3% to 48.4%).  The table below compares the results in Vigo County to the National results for the years 1888 through 2012.  The average margin delta (difference between the margin in Vigo County and the margin nationwide) for the last 124 years is only 4%.  The accompanying bar chart is a graphical representation of these data.

Year National Vigo Nat Margin Vigo Margin Margin ∆
1888 Rep Rep 0.83% 1.36% -0.5%
1892 Dem Dem 3.01% 3.40% 0.4%
1896 Rep Rep 4.31% 2.95% 1.4%
1900 Rep Rep 6.13% 3.25% 2.9%
1904 Rep Rep 18.83% 20.19% -1.4%
1908 Rep Dem 8.53% 2.07% 10.6%
1912 Dem Dem 14.44% 12.56% -1.9%
1916 Dem Dem 3.12% 9.92% 6.8%
1920 Rep Rep 26.17% 7.89% 18.3%
1924 Rep Rep 25.22% 17.66% 7.6%
1928 Rep Rep 17.42% 10.61% 6.8%
1932 Dem Dem 17.76% 16.77% -1.0%
1936 Dem Dem 24.25% 31.02% 6.8%
1940 Dem Dem 9.95% 11.64% 1.7%
1944 Dem Dem 7.49% 6.83% -0.7%
1948 Dem Dem 4.48% 15.05% 10.6%
1952 Rep Dem 10.85% 0.07% 10.9%
1956 Rep Rep 15.40% 1.14% 14.3%
1960 Dem Dem 0.16% 0.33% 0.2%
1964 Dem Dem 22.58% 18.41% -4.2%
1968 Rep Rep 0.70% 1.04% -0.3%
1972 Rep Rep 23.15% 22.13% 1.0%
1976 Dem Dem 2.06% 2.32% 0.3%
1980 Rep Rep 9.74% 10.47% -0.7%
1984 Rep Rep 18.22% 17.41% 0.8%
1988 Rep Rep 7.73% 6.63% 1.1%
1992 Dem Dem 5.56% 5.26% -0.3%
1996 Dem Dem 8.52% 5.77% -2.8%
2000 Rep Rep √* 0.52% 1.24% -0.7%
2004 Rep Rep 2.46% 6.45% -4.0%
2008 Dem Dem 7.26% 15.77% 8.5%
2012 Dem Dem 3.85% 0.86% -3.0%

*In 2000, the popular vote went to Albert Gore, Jr., but the electoral vote went to George W. Bush.
Vigo County, Indiana Bar Chart