In my annual drive between Eastern Massachusetts and Upstate New York, I often stop into a very deep repository of past election data - the New York State Library in Albany to collect additional past election data. This trip was a bit different, as I spent some time four floors above the library in the New York State Archives. Here, they have many original hand-written and typed records of election returns. Among the new data that I collected, was a sheet of write-in returns for the State of New York for the office of President in 1940. The document, titled “Statement of scattering vote cast as the General Election for Electors of President and Vice-President”, tabulated 12,301 write-ins for President. These votes include 11,289 for Communist Party candidate Earl Browder, 121 votes for Socialist Labor candidate John Aiken, and 891 votes for scattered write-ins. The vast majority of these write-in votes were recorded in the New York City boroughs of Bronx, Kings, and New York, where Browder received about 0.5% of the vote in these Counties as a write-in. The document only includes write-ins for 12 of New York’s 62 counties. Some of the larger counties, such as Erie, are absent, so it is likely that there are even more votes for Browder that are uncounted. These votes will soon be added to the Atlas election results database.

In response to this request, I have created an additional feature - on each of the polling state summary pages, there is a new section that shows the number of delegates awarded prior to the date on which the state-under-view holds its contest. In addition, a new graph shows the projected delegate count for the top candidates as allocated by the states holding primaries and caucuses earlier than the given state. This graph also shows the projected delegate standing as a function of time - as the polling data evolves with the campaigns.

If the line representing the leading candidate is above the bold win line (half-delegates + 1), then the state contest is no longer relevant, otherwise, the delegates awarded for the state contest are helping to determine the party nominee. Currently, the Texas Democratic Primary and the Texas Republican Primary are both relevant, as no candidate has exceeded the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination prior to March 4. These charts will be updated as the campaign unfolds.

Projected Delegate Allocation Prior to this Contest:

Prediction scripts are now available for the 2008 Senate Election and the 2008 Gubernatorial contests (joining the already-available 2008 Presidential Predictions. The 2006 Senate aggregate prediction called 32 of 33 contests correctly - only missing Virginia. The 2006 Gubernatorial aggregate prediction called 35 of 36 contests correctly - only missing in Minnesota. Give a try at election prognostication! (more…)

• Open primaries allow voters of any party affiliation to vote
• Modified open primaries allow independent or unaffiliated voters as well as those affiliated with the party holding the election contest
• Closed primaries limit the participants to those registered with the party holding the election contest

The allocation of delegates for the Atlas Mock Primaries are modeled after the rules for each state - typically awarding delegates proportional to the popular vote in a given state or via winner-take-all (the same system as 48 states and the District of Columbia use in the general election to award Presidential Electors). In the real primary system, a certain set of delegates are allocated via the vote in congressional districts - this level of detail has been omitted on the Atlas mock election - where all the district delegates are awarded as part of the “at large” group. Overall, the primary process is quite complex.

Go now and cast your ballot!