Two new sections are now available on the Atlas - Gubernatorial Election Polls for 2006 and Senatorial Election Polls for 2006. The new polling sections include the ability to view individual polls in detail as well as summary pages comparing recent polls by state and by polling agency. The main page includes a compilation of the most recent three polls for each state and presents a map of the result showing the current status of who is ahead on a per-state basis as well as a table showing the current view of the pick-ups for each part. Also included is a trend graph illustrating the number of states ahead for each party starting in February of 2006.

The 2004 Presidential Predictions turned out to be a very popular Atlas site feature - with almost 2,000 unique entries (and over 12,000 total version entries). The compiled map showed the correct winner of every state - with the exception of Ohio - which missed being called by merely two Republican predictions (1,000 Democratic calls vs. 998 Republican).

For 2006, new prediction scripts and databases for the Gubernatorial and United States Senate races have been created. The predictions have been expanded to include independent candidates, show party “pick-ups”, and has more integration with the Atlas Forum.

Participate and Enjoy!

Last week, the Atlas underwent an expansion, adding Gubernatorial and Senatorial election results and integrating these data with the Presidential returns. There was already a special section for Gubernatorial results for a number of years - however the feature set for these data was limited. The site expansion makes available the complete Gubernatorial results from 1998 through 2005, including all the features already available for the Presidential returns (map comparisons, party maps and data, image-mapped county maps with county and township summary pages, customizable data tables, etc.). In addition, the first complete year of Senatorial results - 2004 - is also included (many thanks to True Democrat for contributing the data). Using the frames version for navagation, a new menu appears in the top frame at the right - allowing the user to select which election to view. In the no-frames version, new navigation appears at the bottom to select a different office.

Further integration of the data is planned - such as side-by-side map comparisons between offices for a given year, possible mouse-over maps, data comparisons, etc. Please send suggestions. If you would like to contribute state-wide election data (perhaps even other offices), please send an email. The newly-included election results may be access in the frames version or the no-frames version.

Total Ballots Cast are figures published by most election agencies that show the total number of people having cast ballots. Typically, a number of these ballots for any given contest (e.g. President) are invalid - either the voter decided not to choose a candidate for President (called a “blank” or “under-vote”) or the voter selected multiple candidates (called a “void” or “over-vote”).

Figures for Total Ballots Cast in the 2004 and 2000 general elections for President have been added to the database at the state, county, township, and precinct levels for all states in which this data is available. These data may be accessed by using the customize form at the bottom of any detailed data table (Atlas Membership required for county, township, and precinct-level). In addition, there are options to display the total number of invalid ballots and percent invalid for each in the table. For an example, take a look at the 2004 state-level data table with the new data included. Data for previous years are also in process of being added to the database.

The Politcal Matrix is a mechanism to map and compare one’s political views in a two-dimensional space. Unlike the simple left/right (liberal/conservative) schema, the Political Matrix uses two axes, the right/left economic axis and the authoritarian/libertarian social axis. The two-dimensional map then places your result in one of four quadrants: authoritarian-right, authoritarian-left, libertarian-right, and libertarian-left (moderates would be points that fall close to the origin). Modeled after the Political Compass, and similar to the Libertarian diamond, the Atlas community has created and tested the new matrix to be a more detailed and accurate representation of one’s political philosophy. The Atlas community political matrix chart may be found here. Go ahead and take the test, add the results to your myatlas page and compare your philosophy with the community.

Happy President’s Day! In honor of the past-serving presidents, there was a proposal put forth in 2004 by Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) and Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) that would place images of the Presidents on the obverse side of the $1 coins with the image of the Statue of Liberty on the reverse side. There would be four per year in order of service (not including those Presidents who are still alive).

The bill (H.R. 902) passed the House on April 27, 2005, passed the Senate in November of 2005, and was signed into law by President Bush on December 15, 2005. The US Mint will present the new 2007 $1 coin design candidates at a public meeting on February 28, 2006. Expect the new George Washington coin early next year. A new coin will enter circulation every three months depicting each successive President (and yes, Grover Cleveland will have two!) - (see the chronological list of Presidents).

The New York project (first discussed in this weblog entry) has made a lot of progress. The township maps and data are now complete for all counties for the general elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004. The precinct data is now complete for all counties outside of the five New York City Boroughs for those four elections (New York City Borough precinct data is complete for 2000 and 2004). This was no small task as most counties required hand-entry of precinct data. In addition, the further complication of New York’s fusion system added an average of four more ballot lines per election. Overall this required a lot of number typing. For example, the counties of Erie, Monroe, and Nassau had a total of 2,897 precincts in 1992 (only to grow larger by 2004). With the exception of Monroe in 2004, all three of these counties required manual entry of the data between 1992 and 2004 from the canvass books (they are legal size documents about 3 cm thick). Total precincts for New York in 1992 are 9,764 (outside of NYC).

The New York township map for 1992 is partiularly interesting. Perot was very strong in Western New York, winning numerous towns in Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Erie, Wyoming, and Niagara counties (Perot finished second in Wyoming and Cattaraugus counties and a very close third in Niagara County). Perot also had a strong showing in central New York in an area up the I-81 corridor from Binghamton through Northern Jefferson County, having won a number of towns in the region. Perot placed well-enough in this region such that in most towns, the winning candidate received less than 40% of the vote. Bush was strong through the the Adirondacks, perifieral Catskills, and the Genesee River Vally counties (Steuben , Allegany, Livingston, Ontario, Yates, Genesee, Orleans, Wayne). Clinton had strong support in New York City and the large upstate cities (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Albany), in the northern tier (St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties), Ithaca, and the central Catskills (Ulster and Sullivan Counties).

County-level township maps for all counties in these four years are now available on-line to members. Township data and precinct data is also available on-line to members. There are also detailed spreadsheets with boundary codes that include both unfused and fused data for the Presidential vote at the precinct, township, and county level. See the store page if for purchasing information on the spreadsheets.

The latest book to incorporate material from the Atlas is Anthony Fairfax’s The Democratic Trend Phenomena. The paperback book is an analytical work with a decent amount of statistical mathematics with the goal of proving a predictable trend in the popular vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate.

From the Author: “The goal of forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections has been around for decades. However, the belief is that predicting, especially the popular vote, with a high degree of accuracy is difficult due to different national or even local conditions that change with each election (e.g. economic, social, political, and global changes).”

“Nonetheless, over the last three decades there exists a little known exception to the rule pertaining to forecasting presidential elections. The exception is that the popular vote for the Democratic candidate for president has trended in a predictable pattern since 1980. If the election of 1976 is disregarded the trend is revealed to actually begin in 1972.”

“This unique predictability has been deemed by the author as, The Democratic Trend Phenomena. This book describes the cause of the phenomena, measures the accuracy, and outlines the future effects.”

On the acknowledgements on page ix: “Additional thanks to David Leip who provided critical election data during the development of this book”

The book sells on Amazon for $10.17.

The map depicting the results for President in the state of New York by township for the 2004 General Election is now complete. New York is one of the states that allocates all ballot types to the appropriate precinct. Therefore, the results by city and township are exact.

The image shown to the right has 218 municipalities won by Kerry (22%) and 779 by Bush (78%). There were no ties in 2004. Kerry’s best municipality is Bronx Borough with 82.8%. Kerry received the lowest percentage in the Town of Jasper (Steuben County) with only 17.21%. Bush’s top location is the Town of Morehouse (Hamilton County) with 81.6% (71 votes to Kerry’s 15). Bush’s worst locality is the college city of Ithaca (Tompkins County) where Nader picked up 3.1% leaving Bush with only 15.5%. Some interesting statistics:

• Kerry Municipalities: Average Votes Cast: 23,227; Median Votes Cast: 4,331
• Bush Municpalities: Average Votes Cast: 2,994; Median Votes Cast: 1,212

As was evident in 2000, Bush carries many more of the rural, low-population townships, while Kerry scores solidly in the cities. To wit, in Kerry’s top 10 are four of the New York City Boroughs, the cities of Buffalo and Albany, as well as the City of Mount Vernon (Westchester county). These seven municipalities cast almost 2.5 million votes for President and rack up a margin of 1,354,849 votes for Kerry (this is, remarkably, about 3,000 votes more than Kerry’s state-wide margin of 1,351,713). The remaining three in the top 10 are the City of Ithaca, the surrounding the Town of Ithaca, and the relatively small Town of Woodstock (of 1960s fame in Ulster county) with 4,072 ballots cast. By contrast, Bush’s top 10 have an average total votes cast of 490 with names that are not widely known (All in Hamilton, Allegany, and Steuben Counties).

A larger township map as well as township data are available to members (New York by City and Town). In addition, the county-township maps are also available to members on each of the New York county summary pages such as my original home county of Ononadaga! Enjoy.

Today is election day 2005. Although an off-year for most (meaning that there are not many high-profile positions up for election), there are a number of important local offices to be filled as well as initiatives around the country to be voted on. Two of the bigger elections are the Gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. The results of these elections will be availalbe in the special Gubernatorial section following the release of the returns (see NJ and VA).