The Cotes d’Armor has for a long time been the left’s stronghold in Brittany. If one looks through old electoral statistics, the left has always achieved stronger results in Cotes d’Armor than elsewhere in Brittany. In 2007, Segolene Royal took 30% by the first round and 55% on the second round, compared to 28% in Ille-et-Vilaine and 29% in Finistère. The Communists have also performed above average here, for example Buffet took 2.32% in the department, compared to around 1.9% nationally. Geographically, Socialist support is concentrated heavily in the west of the department, in the constituencies of Guingamp and Lannion while also acheiving high results in Saint Brieuc. The eastern regions, Dinan and Loudeac trend minimally more towards the right, and of those two only Loudeac and the south of the department are more right-wing than its neighboring regions. In the first round of the 2007 presidential election, Dinan and Loudeac voted for Sarkozy, the three other constituencies voted for Royal, with her scores in these three constituencies above her departmental average. Royal won all constituencies in the second round, including Loudeac and Dinan. Once again, a clear east-west divide is seen- she took 52% in Loudeac and Dinan but from 55 to 61% in the three other constituencies.

The results of the first round of the legislative election in Cotes d’Armor illustrated excellently the blue wave of the first round. UMP candidates took the lead in 3 constituencies, with Socialists leading in 2 constituencies. One could have believed the left’s lock on the department was crumbling, though that was not the case.

In the first constituency, Saint Brieuc, seat held by the Socialiste Danielle Bousquet, and a generally safe seat for the PS, the result showed a blue wave too, the UMP was up from 25% in 2002 to around 36%! Also, the Socialist vote was up too, from 34% to 39%. However, in 2002, a UDF candidate had taken 12% here, and in 2007 the MoDem ran no candidate in this constituency, the only constituency where they didn’t do so. To explain the increase in Socialist vote, there was less of a division in left-wing votes than in 2002, the idea of vote utile being shown here. Both the Communist and Green vote was down, the PCF had won 7.6% in 2002, the Greens 4.6%, and the Pole Republicain had 1.5%. In 2007, the Communists collapsed to 5.4%, and the Greens were down to 4.5%. Bousquet was of course re-elected, with over 57.7%, higher than her 55% score in 2002 and only a few points higher than Royal’s 57.2%.

The second constituency, formed by Dinan, Cap Frehel, Plancoet voted for Sarkozy in the first round and the seat itself is a marginal. In the first round, Michel Vaspart, UMP candidate on his second try, led the Socialist incumbent Jean Gaubert by two votes! The surge of the left nationwide in the second round provided Gaubert with the power to trounce Vaspart 54.7% to 45.3%. In 2002, the result had been much more marginal, Gaubert had defeated Vaspart with only 50.12%.

The third constituency, dominated by Loudéac and Lamballe, the first one being a city of the right, the other being a city of the left. The constituency is the only one held by the right. The first round of 2007 was easily dominated by the UMP incumbent Marc Le Fur, who was only 2% away from being elected by the first round. He took 48.02%, the Socialists over 10 points behind with 34.7%. Equally surprising is the scale of the centre’s collapse from Bayrou’s 21% in April to the MoDem’s mere 2.9% in June. In the south, Loudéac and surrouding villages all voted at over 50% for Le Fur, while Lamballe voted, in scores much closer than in the south, primarily for the Socialist candidate. In the second round, Le Fur was re-elected taking 52%, down only a few points from 52.7% in 2002.

Guingamp and its constituency is the most solid Socialist constituency in the department, Royal took over 61% in the second round here. This seat is also part of western Brittany’s red belt, the belt that extends into Morbihan where Communists achieve high scores. In fact, in 1997, a Communist was elected in a race including a Socialist candidate. In 2002, the Communists lost half their 1997 vote and fell to 15.8%. In 2007, the Socialist incumbent Marie-Renée Oget easily won the first round taking 32.6% to the UMP’s 26.16%. The Communists achieved their best score region wide, with over 12% and coming first in 5 towns. The MoDem also won 3 towns and took 10.2% in the constituency as a whole. The UDB, a left-wing autonomist party, leader and regional councillor Mona Bras won 4.9%. In the second round, Oget, with a strong reserve from the Communists and UDB easily won, trouncing the UMP with her 63%.

The fifth constituency, whose main city is Lannion votes, more or less, like the department as a whole. With the “blue wave” of the first round, the UMP candidate came out on top with 34% to the Socialist’s 33%. The MoDem was also strong, with 10.9%, the centre’s best score in the department, although far from Bayrou’s 21% in April. Continuing it’s local bellwether tradition, the Socialists carried the seat with 56%, increasing the party’s marginal 50.92% in 2002. The right came out on top, although most times by almost nothing, in the richer seaside resorts, for example Perros Guirec.

As for summing up a general trend in the department, the west is safe Socialist, the east is more marginal, with the south of the department being more rightwards leaning. Without forgetting of course the red belt in the west. Ahead of the 2008 municipal elections, the Socialists will be trying to take back Saint Brieuc from the right, after the left had lost it in 2001. Another target within the left’s reach is Dinan, which voted Socialist in the second round of the legislative elections and whose town hall is currently held by the right.

Political Event of the Year:

France: The election of Nicolas Sarkozy and a new generation of politics. Sarkozy is the first president since 1958 born after the Second World War, the only president without memories from the War in Algeria. The new generation of politicians as witnessed in the presidential race, the two frontrunners had never run for president before, the third placed candidate was only on his second try. All minor parties candidates, with the exception of Arlette Laguiller, were on their first or second attempt.

Canada: The butchering of the environment by the Harper government. Harper and company’s refusal to follow Kyoto, their refusal to commit to environmental protection might ruin their chances of forming a majority, or even a government again in 2008. Honorable mention to Mario Dumont’s ADQ for becoming the official opposition.

Political Gaffe of the Year:

France: The TVA sociale proposed in the week between the first and second round of the general election. The VAT polemic prevented the “blue tsunami/wave” from happening and in fact led to the defeat of UMP incumbents and a better performance than expected by parties such as the Greens, PS, or even the MoDem. Honorable mentions go to Segolene Royal on saying entirely stupid things during the campaign and getting immature in the debate (without forgetting pissing off Eric Besson etc.). Another mention to Bayrou, in his refusal to co-operate with either PS or UMP brought his “MoDem” to 3-4 seats.

Canada: John Tory easily. How stupid can one be? I mean, the PC led in polls at some point early in the campaign before he started talking of his religious school funding. The man just had to focus of the Lieberals and McGuinty’s broken promises instead of talking about a hated idea and losing votes and leading to the re-election of a Liberal government. Honorable mention to Mario Dumont and wanting to call an election over 8% turnout in school board elections. Is it news to anybody that people don’t give two shits about school board elections? Jesus Christ man.

Best Political Maneuvering:

France: Sarkozy’s strategy of ouverture shot the PS another bullet after taking a first one in the presidential election. By taking some of the PS’s leading figures and putting them in government (Bernard Kouchner, Jean-Marie Bockel etc.), or giving them a better job (DSK at the IMF instead of being a opposition MP for a Paris suburb constituency that goes up in flames every once in a while)

Canada: Well firstly, Stephen Harper clearly isn’t as smart as Sarkozy. The best thing he did is naming a Liberal like John Manley head of a panel on the Afghan mission.

Rising Star(s):

France: The new government, and some of its members such as Rama Yade, Rachida Dati, Eric Besson.

Canada: I know everybody will go “JUSTIN TRUDEAU” but no, the guy is another “son of” type of person who seems as arrogant as his father, and for the love of god, the guy isn’t even an MP yet! He needs to unseat an incumbent first! I’d say Michael Ignatieff. If Dion looses the next federal election, Ignatieff has a good shot at becoming Liberal leader.

“Kid Kodak”:

France: And Arnaud “the Bad Student” Montebourg sweeps the award again! When medias are looking for somebody to whine about something they turn to a irrelevant MP of Saone-et-Loire for his irrelevant two cents. And, being on the 8 o’clock news every time the right does something isn’t enough, he also needs to say a stupid thing on Royal/Hollande during the campaign which gets him a “yellow card” from the Grade One teacher, Segolene Royal. Honorable mentions to Noel Mamere, one of the 4/577 Green MPs, Francois Bayrou, Segolene Royal etc.

Canada: John Baird if only Stephen Harper didn’t keep his cabinet in the Mariana Trench all year long.

Country Specific Awards:

France:

2007 Whiner: Arnaud Montebourg and Francois Bayrou.

The Teacher: Segolene Royal and how she gave the bad student, Arnaud Montebourg a “yellow card” for one month for making a stupid comment on her (now over) relationship with party boss Francois Hollande.

Canada:

Deny Reality!: John Baird “it’s not broken! it’s not broken!” on the environment. Uhm, sorry to break your Conservabubble, but it’s broken. Now you and Steve fix it up.

The Rebel: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Danny Williams and how he stood up to Steve Harper on the Atlantic Accord. About time somebody stands up to the school Principal.

The Stupidity Award: John Tory for messing up his chances with religious school funding, but also by running in Liberalia (Toronto) against a popular incumbent. As much as may hate parachute-drops, for your own sake, run in some safe PC seat, not in Toronto against the Minister of Education!

“Darn Polls!”

France: Bayrou’s surge from 5% to 23% in about a month, and the second round polls during the June legislative election that still predicted a blue wave.

USA: Huckabee’s primary surge in Iowa and now nationwide from 1-2% to 30% (in Iowa) and second place nationally. January 3rd will tell if the polls were right
Canada: The Green Party’s surge from 4.5% in 2006 to 9-13% in polls now, and the Ontario Greens’ surge from 2% in 2003 to 8% in 2007.