A bit of history now with a look at the results in the locals since 1945.

29 April and 13 May 1945: As voters went to the polls in the first round, France was still at war, Germany surrendered on May 7. For the first time ever in France, women were allowed to vote, resulting in 50% more voters than pre-war. In the first round, the Communists are favoured, while the radicals and moderates were trounced. The christian democrats of the MRP realized an unexpected breakthrough. In the runoff however, the MRP collapsed while the moderates, radicals, SFIO, and PCF were able to win numerous cities.

19 and 26 October 1947: The election of 1947 was the first local election held under the 4th Republic. While the MRP was severely defeated, the Gaullist RPF realized excellent results (winning Bordeaux, Rennes, Strasbourg, Paris etc). The Communists, who had been excluded from the government in the spring, were isolated in working-class cities primarily.

26 April and 3 May 1953: After the very favourable 1947 election, but a less favourable time in the National Assembly, the RPF collapsed to 10%, but the centre and the CNIP limited the right’s defeat. The Communists lost over 10%.

8 and 15 March 1959: After coming to power in 1958 under the 5th Republic, the 1959 locals were the first municipal elections under the new republic. After exceptional scores in 1958, the Gaullist UDR realized mediocre scores. The MRP, radicals, SFIO, and Communists held their positions.

14 and 21 March 1965: Like in 1959, the UDR realized deceiving results (although they did moderately gain). The Communists gained, but they also came out of their isolation and started co-operating with other parties of the parliamentary left.

14 and 21 March 1971: Georges Pompidou had been in power since 1969 by 1971. The UDR gained in the radical south-west while the PCF gained in the north and east. On the left, the socialists, although still administering numerous cities with the “moderates”, the strategy of unions with the PCF developed, marked mostly by the withdrawal of candidates in runoff to profit one party.

13 and 20 March 1977: By 1977, Valery Giscard d’Estaing had been in power since 1974. The Communists and PS, united under a “government program” swept the elections. Out of 221 cities with over 30,000 inhabitants, the left won 155. The Socialists gained Rennes, Angers, Brest, Nantes, Villeurbanne, Pau, and Cannes. The Communists gained Le Mans, Reims, and Saint-Etienne. For the first time, green parties realized their first breakthroughs.

For the first time since 1789, elections were held to the mayorship of Paris. The former Prime Minister and RPR candidate Jacques Chirac was elected, defeating notably the Giscardian Michel d’Ornano.

6 and 13 March 1983: The left, in power since only two years, was defeated in the 1983 locals by the RPR-UDF. The Communists lost Saint-Etienne and Reims, while the PS lost Tourcoing, Grenoble, and Roubaix. They narrowly held Marseille (with Gaston Defferre) against Jean-Claude Gaudin (UDF). In Paris, Chirac was easily re-elected, sweeping all arrondissements.

12 and 19 March 1989: After the 1983 disaster, the left did relatively good in 1989. They gained Nantes, Strasbourg, Brest, Orleans, Mulhouse, Avignon, Chambery, and Blois while losing Amiens, Saint-Malo, and Laon. The Communists continued their decline. Chirac repeated his 1983 sweep in Paris, but the PS did the same in Marseille. The FN won their first city, Saint-Gilles in the Gard. The Greens and ecologists did well, winning over 600 seats and around 15 cities.

11 and 18 June 1995: Held only a month after Chirac’s election as President, the 1995 locals presented contrasted results for both parties. The right gained Marseille, Le Havre (a Communist stronghold), Laval, and held Paris and Lyon. The PS, however, gained in both Paris and Lyon and took back Grenoble, and Tours. The Communists re-took Nimes. The far-right did well, with the FN winning in Toulon, Orange, and Marignane.

11 and 18 March 2001: The 2001 elections were generally favourable for the right, who was now in the parliamentary opposition. However, the right’s division in Paris and Lyon led to the PS gaining those two cities. They did, however, take Strasbourg, Aix-en-Provence, Argenteuil (a PCF stronghold since 1934), Blois (Jack Lang defeated), Chartres, Drancy (a PCF stronghold since 1935), Nimes, Orleans, and Saint-Brieuc. The left gained Ajaccio (from the bonapartists of Charles Napoleon), Dijon, and Tulle. The Greens did well, winning 16% in Besancon and winning Saumur by the first round. The far-right, divided between FN and MNR lost Toulon but held Orange, Vitrolles, and Marignane. By 2008, however, none of these three cities are still held by the FN or MNR.

Now for some detailed city analysis of 2008. Please note in the cases of races that are more primaries than actual elections, no prediction of the “primary” result is made.

Aix-en-Provence (UMP): The right won this city from the PS in 2001. The incumbent, Marysse Joissains has seen her base divided, with two of her deputies supporting the MoDem list. The left, however is also divided between two candidates. The city, however, voted at 57% for Sarkozy in May 2007. Tossup

Amiens (New Centre): Gilles de Robien, former UDF Minister of Education and former MP remains mayor of Amiens, with very high favorables. While the city barely re-elected its NC deputy (as well as Gremetz, a Communist) in June, it voted for Royal in May 2007. The left is, after all, united; Maxime Gremetz having finally declined interest in running. A poll mentioned in this blog earlier showed Robien with a wide lead. While things have most certainly changed, such as the entry of the MoDem into the race, Robien certainly has an advantage. Lean NC-PSLE

Angers (PS): The right has its eyes on this city, which has been Socialist since 1977. Antonini, the PS mayor faces Christophe Béchu, who has received the support of two of the mayor’s deputies and a part of the MoDem. In addition, the left is divided, with the PCF forming a list with the far-left. Lean PS

Argenteuil (UMP): Argenteuil, city of former Communist leader Robert Hue and in the hands of the right since 2001, is one of the cities the left wants to reconquer. The Socialists, however, are split between 2 candidates (one receiving PCF and LO support, the other receiving Green, Radical, and PT support). The right will try to exploit the lefts’ division to hold this city, which voted for Royal in both rounds of the 2007 election. Tossup

Besancon (PS): The left has maintained its control over the capital of the Doubs since 1953, and the right hopes to end that. However, once again, the right is split, with the UMP divided between its official candidates and the former president of Franche-Comte. Lean PS

Bordeaux (UMP): Alain Juppé, former Prime Minister and defeated for re-election in 2007, is running for re-election in Bordeaux. The Socialist candidate, the regional president Alain Rousset hopes to repeat the victory of Royal in the city in 2007. Juppé, however, has the support of Bayrou’s MoDem, leaving the race. Both have high favorables, although Juppé’s is a bit higher. A poll by TNS-Sofres in January showed him leading 52-39. Safe UMP

Boulogne-Billancourt (UMP): As is common in other safe UMP cities, this race is more of UMP primary election between the official candidate (an ex-UDF) and the mayor until 2007 (who resigned in favour of his protegé, who declined to run against the official candidate). The former mayor has the support of the right-wing majority in this city, where Sarkozy took 66%. I do not predict party primaries, so. Safe UMP

Brest (PS): The incumbent Socialist mayor of a safe Socialist city has received the support of the united left (PCF, UDB, Greens etc.) against a divided right. In 2007, Royal easily won, with 56%. Safe PS

Caen (UMP): Defeated in June 2007, Brigitte Le Brethon (by regional president Philippe Duron), faces the same competitor in March. Caen, traditionally right-wing, voted for Royal with 55.6% in May 2007. Tossup

Clermont-Ferrand (PS): This race could have been heated between the incumbent Serge Godard and Immigration Minister Brice Hortefeux, but Hortefeux finally declined to run (looking instead to run in the 2010 regionals). The left is united, as is the right. Safe PS

Dijon (PS): A look at 2007 results would hint at the competitiveness of the race (Sarkozy won with 52%), but the Socialist Rebsamen (who has MoDem support) is very safe. A poll by TNS-Sofres indicated that he led 56-35 and that he had a 72% favorable rating. Safe PS

Grenoble (PS): The Socialist incumbent Michel Destot is safe in Grenoble against the leader of the “young UMP” Fabien de Sans Nicolas. Destot would dominate in a runoff against the right 60-40, with a good transfer of votes from a Green list (credited of 12% support). Safe PS

Le Havre (UMP): Le Havre is bizarre- in 2007, the Communists actually gained a seat in the city when nationwide they lost seats. The left, however, is divided, with no union between the PCF and the Socialists, both of which are running independent lists. Daniel Paul, a Communist deputy could narrowly defeat the Socialist list (which, however, would still have enough votes to maintain itself in a runoff) in the first round. The total of 3 left-wing candidates in the first round would be 44%, to 47% for the UMP incumbent Antoine Rufenacht. In a runoff, Paul is tied with Rufenacht but Rufenacht would defeat the Socialist list. Le Havre could very well fall to the Communists in 2008. Tossup

Le Mans (PS): In this city, in the hands of the left since 1977, the Socialist incumbent Jean-Claude Boulard faces the UMP councillor Veronique Rivron. The MoDem has been joined by the Left Radicals, traditional allies of the Socialists. Boulard is safe in a city where Royal scored 56% in the runoff. Safe PS

Lille (PS): Martine Aubry, first elected in 2001 but defeated in the 2002 legislative elections is hoping to be re-elected easily. While she personally is safe, the right could potentially pick up neighboring cities (such as Turcoing) which would tip the “greater Lille” to the right. Safe PS

Lyon (PS): The division of the right in 2001 (between the Millonists and Michel Mercier, UDF) led to the left’s capture of the capital of Gaul and the “capital of the UDF” with Gerard Collomb (PS). The UMP candidate, Dominique Perben hopes to regain this “accidental loss”, but he faces a very popular mayor (when he himself has low favorable ratings). While Perben has been able to rally a part of the MoDem (with pressure from Michel Mercier) and the Millonists, his electorate is weaker. The transfer of votes from the “official” MoDem list would benefit Collomb 53-42. There is a realistic chance, that if the MoDem is weak (divisions are very apparent), Collomb could win over 50% of votes cast citywide. Safe PS

Marseille (UMP): The UMP incumbent, Jean-Claude Gaudin hopes to win a third term against a left that is united, for the first time since Gaston Defferre’s death. The race will be a tight one, but with relatively high favorable ratings, Gaudin has a narrow advantage in both rounds. Lean UMP

Metz (DVD): While the city of Metz is right-wing country, with the UMP controlling 3 of the 3 seats in the National Assembly, the municipal election is more of a right-wing primary between Jean-Marie Rausch, the 78 year old Divers Droite incumbent and the UMP candidate, Marie-Jo Zimmerman. Rausch has opened his list to a defeated Socialist primary candidate, but his former deputy, the MEP Nathalie Griesbeck leads the centrist MoDem. Lean DVD

Montpellier (PS): The Socialist incumbent, H. Mandroux is faced by a confident right, based on the scores obtained by Sarkozy in 2007 in the city. However, Mandroux remains popular and has Communist support. While the Greens are running an independent list, they will likely fusion with the incumbent’s list. Lean PS

Montreuil (CAP/PCF): The race in Montreuil is a left-wing primary, without the Socialists. The CAP (party close to the Communists) mayor Jean-Pierre Brard faces Dominique Voynet, Green candidate in 2007 and local Senator. The Socialist has renewed its support to Brard, but local Socialists have also rallied the Green candidacy. Lean CAP/PCF

Mulhouse (GM): The former Socialist and Secretary of State for Co-operation and Francophonie Jean-Marie Bockel is running for re-election… as a “Modern Left” candidate supported by the UMP. He is faced by an “official” Socialist candidate, who represents a local party divided by Bockel’s floor crossing but decries Bockel’s “traitorious” move. Bockel hopes that his support by most of the UMP will result in his re-election in this very right-wing Alsatian city. Safe GM

Nancy (PR/UMP): The right Radical A. Rossinot, re-elected since 1983, hopes to win a fifth term. However, the left is confident based on the left’s good scores in 2007. The MoDem too is confident, with Francoise Herve, who had obtained 17% in 2001. Lean Radical

Nantes (PS): The leader of the Socialist group, Jean-Marc Ayrault is running for a fourth term, with the support of the Greens, PCF, Radicals, and the UDB. Nantes, which voted for Royal in 2007, is a traditionally left-wing city. The UMP candidate, Sophie Jozan, has, however, obtained the support of one of Ayrault’s deputy. As for the MoDem, it counts on the 21% that voted for Bayrou in April 2007. Safe PS

Nice (UMP): The battle in Nice, a right-wing stronghold, is another right-wing primary. The UMP candidate, Christian Estrosi must face the unhappy ex-FN incumbent, Jacques Peyrat, who leads a dissident list. The left is also divided between an official PS candidate and its 2001 candidate, both of which are running. In a poll by TNS-Sofres, Estrosi had 51% by the first round, compared to 18% for the PS and 14% for Peyrat. He would also defeat the Socialist and Peyrat in a three-way runoff (57-28-15) and would trounce the Socialists 70-30 in a two-way runoff. Safe UMP

Nimes (UMP): Although his term has been marked by scandals, Jean-Paul Fournier (UMP) remains popular in this former Communist city. The right, however seems safe. Sarkozy and the UMP dominated the city in the 2007 election. The left is divided between Alain Clary, the former PCF mayor, a Socialist list, a Green list, and a LCR list. Fournier would defeat Clary 57 to 43 in a runoff and would defeat the Socialist candidate 60 to 40. Safe UMP

Orleans (UMP): This UMP pickup in 2001 is vulnerable to the left, who is running united under the former PS mayor and Senator. The MoDem supports the incumbent, Serge Grouard. While the UMP swept the department in 2007, UMP and PS candidates were neck-to-neck in the city, which voted for Sarkozy (51%). Lean UMP

Paris (PS): The left, under Bertrand Delanoë, picked up the capital from a divided right in 2001. As in Lyon, the right is hoping to compensate for the “accidental loss” of the city in 2001. The UMP candidate, Françoise de Panafieu has been able to rally (for the most part) the Parisian right, used to division. The MoDem, led by MEP Marielle de Sarnez hopes to repeat the party’s good scores (especially in de Sarnez’s arrondissement, 18.5% in June) and act as kingmaker between the two rounds. The Greens are running an independent list, as they did with great success in 2001; however it is likely they will fusion with Delanoë’s lists, as in 2001. The Socialist success in the city in June (such as the pickup of the 12^th arrondissement’s constituency) makes the left optimist, but Panafieu counts on the support of the right and of certain MoDems (such as Jean-Marie Cavada). However, Delanoë is highly popular in the city and the left seems in a good position to keep the city. Safe PS

Perpignan (UMP): Jean-Paul Alduy is leading the UMP in a traditionally right-wing city, that also has a strong FN presence. The left enters divided between two candidates, a PS-PCF list and a DVG list. According to an IFOP poll, Alduy has a large lead in the first round, 44-21 over the Socialist. The FN candidate, Louis Alliot would have enough support (13%) to remain in the runoff, as would the DVG candidate (11%). In a four-way runoff, Alduy would win 52-24, with 13% for the FN and 11% for the DVG. Alduy would also win 54-31-15 in a three-way runoff with the FN. Safe UMP

Reims (DVD): With the incumbent stepping down, the UMP must hold this city for the right in another primary battle. Renaud Dutreuil, former Minister and a deputy from Reims is the official UMP candidate, facing another Reims deputy and former Minister, Catherine Vautrin. In this right-wing city, the Socialists have little chance at picking up the city. Safe UMP

Rennes (PS): Edmond Hervé, mayor of the capital of the Bretagne region since 1977, is retiring in favour of Daniel Delaveau, mayor of neighboring Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande. This city, where Royal obtained 63% in the runoff in 2007, is a solid left-wing city. However, the UMP hopes to gain votes with Karim Boudjema, an independent supported by the UMP. Boudjema calls himself a “half-Sarkozyste”. The MoDem candidate hopes to win back some of Bayrou’s 22% in the city in April. Safe PS

Rouen (UDF): Pierre Albertini, an independent centrist supported by the UMP, MoDem, and NC is extremely vulnerable in a left trending city, especially with mediocre favorable ratings. With the deputy Valérie Fourneyron, the united left hopes to gain this city. According to a TNS-Sofres poll, the left seems quite sure of picking up Rouen, dominating 54-41 by the first round. Safe PS

Saint-Etienne (UMP): Michel Thollière, UMP mayor since 1995 is faced with two strong candidates, Gilles Artigues (MoDem) and Maurice Vincent (PS-united left). Royal won the city on both rounds in 2007 and the Socialist hopes are high. Tossup

Strasbourg (UMP): Strasbourg, in Socialist hands until 2001, is the still the most left-wing city in very conservative Alsace. Fabienne Keller, the UMP incumbent must defeat the former Socialist mayor Roland Ries (from 1997 to 2000), who is in a relatively good position, the Socialists having won 50.9% in the city in June. The Greens are also running an independent list. The MoDem list has received the support of the former Green (now suspended) Yann Wehrling. Two polls showed Ries either narrowly leading or the race tied. Tossup

Toulon (UMP): The UMP under Hubert Falco picked up the right-wing bastion of Toulon from the far-right MNR incumbent Jean-Marie Le Chevallier in 2001. The department’s deputies are all UMP, but the FN remains relatively strong. Safe UMP

Toulouse (app. UMP): Jean-Luc Moudenc, the UMP mayor of Toulouse faces a tough battle in a city which gave Royal 57% of the vote and elected only Socialist deputies (Moudenc himself was defeated in June 2007). However, Moudenc is popular (more so than his predecessor, Philippe Douste-Blazy). While polls indicate a narrow lead for Moudenc in the first round (mainly due to the presence of a anti-liberal list led by a Socialist), the runoff is very tight. The latest poll shows him defeated 52-48 in the runoff. Tossup

Tours (PS): The left is confident of its chances to give Jean Germain a third term. As in 2001, he will face former Culture Minister Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, who must deal with a divided right. Guillaume Peltier, young deputy of the MPF, who had obtained almost 6% in the June legislative elections, is also running. Safe PS

Villeurbanne (PS): The right is confident of its chances to pickup the Lyon suburb of Villeurbanne from the Socialist incumbent. Royal narrowly won the city, with only 50.9%. Henry Chabert, former deputy of the ex-mayor of Lyon Michel Noir, is leading a tough campaign against the PS incumbent. Lean PS

Time now for some little notes on the intricate system used in municipal elections…

Under 35,000 inhabitants

People vote for a candidate in the first round, where votes are counted by candidate. If one or more has over 50% of the votes, he wins by the first round. For the other seats, it goes into a good ol’ runoff, where a plurality of vote is enough to win seats. These cities have from 9 to 23 seats. What is funny is that electors can “modify” a party list, like scratching out a candidate’s name.

Contrary to what people think, the mayor is not directly elected. Any councillor can run for mayor once he/she is elected. To be elected, you need 50% of the councillors. If not it goes into a runoff. If in this runoff, nobody has 50%, a third round is held where a relative majority is enough.

Over 35,000 inhabitants

Thankfully, it gets simpler… for now. In these cities, parties run lists. In the first round, people vote for one of these lists. If one of them wins over 50%, that lists wins the same percentage of seats as it won votes. Remaining seats are then allocated proportionally using a 5% threshold.

If no list has over 50%, a runoff is held, where only lists with 10% or more are allowed. The winning list wins automatically 50% of all seats, as a sort of “winning bonus” similar to what exists in Greek elections. Remaining seats are then allocated proportionally using a 5% threshold.

The election of the mayor is held under the same rules as described above.

Paris, Lyon, Marseille

That was too simple. Before going further, please note that these 3 cities are each subdivided into arrondissements.

Once again, parties run lists of candidates. The first round follows the same system as described above. Electors, however, elect both a arrondissement council and the city council.

If no list has a majority, a runoff is held in that arrondissement between the lists with over 10% there. The subsequent allocation of seats is determined using the same “formula” as in the other cities with over 35,000 inhabitants.

The arrondissement council elects an arrondissement mayor, using the same system. The election of the city’s mayor uses, once again, the same process.

In part III, I’ll get into concrete 2008 stuff, looking at the important races in the major cities. More interesting than this.

The French local elections are coming up very quick, the first round being held on March 9 and the runoff on the 16th. Up for elections are all 36,783 mayors and around 500,000 city councillors. Also, often being overlooked are the cantonale elections, this year, the “2001 series” of cantons (similar to US counties, but used even more for administrative purposes) are up for re-election. These cantonale office holders are also known as councillors and sit in the general council. They also elect the President of the General Council.

Of course, no better way to start out than with some good ol’ maps. The first one is the one that will spark the most interest. Tis’ a map of the current political affiliations of the incumbent city mayors (taking into account party switches, party creations etc. since 2001)… The Paris petite couronne is also included, mostly to show the current Communist cities.

Most party abbreviations should be quite obvious; CAP is a small anti-liberal commie party, GM is Jean-Marie Bockel’s new centre-left UMP affiliated party, and the CNIP is a fringe conservative party that used to be important.

A few “OMG this party controls this city!” comments should pop up, like the UMP incumbents in the Socialist southwest or the MoDem incumbent in Saint-Brieuc.

Now, for a map of the 2004 President of the GC  (Note: UDF incumbents; all are New Centre except for two MoDem)