French Locals 2008, Part III
Now for some detailed city analysis of 2008. Please note in the cases of races that are more primaries than actual elections, no prediction of the “primary” result is made.
Aix-en-Provence (UMP): The right won this city from the PS in 2001. The incumbent, Marysse Joissains has seen her base divided, with two of her deputies supporting the MoDem list. The left, however is also divided between two candidates. The city, however, voted at 57% for Sarkozy in May 2007. Tossup
Amiens (New Centre): Gilles de Robien, former UDF Minister of Education and former MP remains mayor of Amiens, with very high favorables. While the city barely re-elected its NC deputy (as well as Gremetz, a Communist) in June, it voted for Royal in May 2007. The left is, after all, united; Maxime Gremetz having finally declined interest in running. A poll mentioned in this blog earlier showed Robien with a wide lead. While things have most certainly changed, such as the entry of the MoDem into the race, Robien certainly has an advantage. Lean NC-PSLE
Angers (PS): The right has its eyes on this city, which has been Socialist since 1977. Antonini, the PS mayor faces Christophe Béchu, who has received the support of two of the mayor’s deputies and a part of the MoDem. In addition, the left is divided, with the PCF forming a list with the far-left. Lean PS
Argenteuil (UMP): Argenteuil, city of former Communist leader Robert Hue and in the hands of the right since 2001, is one of the cities the left wants to reconquer. The Socialists, however, are split between 2 candidates (one receiving PCF and LO support, the other receiving Green, Radical, and PT support). The right will try to exploit the lefts’ division to hold this city, which voted for Royal in both rounds of the 2007 election. Tossup
Besancon (PS): The left has maintained its control over the capital of the Doubs since 1953, and the right hopes to end that. However, once again, the right is split, with the UMP divided between its official candidates and the former president of Franche-Comte. Lean PS
Bordeaux (UMP): Alain Juppé, former Prime Minister and defeated for re-election in 2007, is running for re-election in Bordeaux. The Socialist candidate, the regional president Alain Rousset hopes to repeat the victory of Royal in the city in 2007. Juppé, however, has the support of Bayrou’s MoDem, leaving the race. Both have high favorables, although Juppé’s is a bit higher. A poll by TNS-Sofres in January showed him leading 52-39. Safe UMP
Boulogne-Billancourt (UMP): As is common in other safe UMP cities, this race is more of UMP primary election between the official candidate (an ex-UDF) and the mayor until 2007 (who resigned in favour of his protegé, who declined to run against the official candidate). The former mayor has the support of the right-wing majority in this city, where Sarkozy took 66%. I do not predict party primaries, so. Safe UMP
Brest (PS): The incumbent Socialist mayor of a safe Socialist city has received the support of the united left (PCF, UDB, Greens etc.) against a divided right. In 2007, Royal easily won, with 56%. Safe PS
Caen (UMP): Defeated in June 2007, Brigitte Le Brethon (by regional president Philippe Duron), faces the same competitor in March. Caen, traditionally right-wing, voted for Royal with 55.6% in May 2007. Tossup
Clermont-Ferrand (PS): This race could have been heated between the incumbent Serge Godard and Immigration Minister Brice Hortefeux, but Hortefeux finally declined to run (looking instead to run in the 2010 regionals). The left is united, as is the right. Safe PS
Dijon (PS): A look at 2007 results would hint at the competitiveness of the race (Sarkozy won with 52%), but the Socialist Rebsamen (who has MoDem support) is very safe. A poll by TNS-Sofres indicated that he led 56-35 and that he had a 72% favorable rating. Safe PS
Grenoble (PS): The Socialist incumbent Michel Destot is safe in Grenoble against the leader of the “young UMP” Fabien de Sans Nicolas. Destot would dominate in a runoff against the right 60-40, with a good transfer of votes from a Green list (credited of 12% support). Safe PS
Le Havre (UMP): Le Havre is bizarre- in 2007, the Communists actually gained a seat in the city when nationwide they lost seats. The left, however, is divided, with no union between the PCF and the Socialists, both of which are running independent lists. Daniel Paul, a Communist deputy could narrowly defeat the Socialist list (which, however, would still have enough votes to maintain itself in a runoff) in the first round. The total of 3 left-wing candidates in the first round would be 44%, to 47% for the UMP incumbent Antoine Rufenacht. In a runoff, Paul is tied with Rufenacht but Rufenacht would defeat the Socialist list. Le Havre could very well fall to the Communists in 2008. Tossup
Le Mans (PS): In this city, in the hands of the left since 1977, the Socialist incumbent Jean-Claude Boulard faces the UMP councillor Veronique Rivron. The MoDem has been joined by the Left Radicals, traditional allies of the Socialists. Boulard is safe in a city where Royal scored 56% in the runoff. Safe PS
Lille (PS): Martine Aubry, first elected in 2001 but defeated in the 2002 legislative elections is hoping to be re-elected easily. While she personally is safe, the right could potentially pick up neighboring cities (such as Turcoing) which would tip the “greater Lille” to the right. Safe PS
Lyon (PS): The division of the right in 2001 (between the Millonists and Michel Mercier, UDF) led to the left’s capture of the capital of Gaul and the “capital of the UDF” with Gerard Collomb (PS). The UMP candidate, Dominique Perben hopes to regain this “accidental loss”, but he faces a very popular mayor (when he himself has low favorable ratings). While Perben has been able to rally a part of the MoDem (with pressure from Michel Mercier) and the Millonists, his electorate is weaker. The transfer of votes from the “official” MoDem list would benefit Collomb 53-42. There is a realistic chance, that if the MoDem is weak (divisions are very apparent), Collomb could win over 50% of votes cast citywide. Safe PS
Marseille (UMP): The UMP incumbent, Jean-Claude Gaudin hopes to win a third term against a left that is united, for the first time since Gaston Defferre’s death. The race will be a tight one, but with relatively high favorable ratings, Gaudin has a narrow advantage in both rounds. Lean UMP
Metz (DVD): While the city of Metz is right-wing country, with the UMP controlling 3 of the 3 seats in the National Assembly, the municipal election is more of a right-wing primary between Jean-Marie Rausch, the 78 year old Divers Droite incumbent and the UMP candidate, Marie-Jo Zimmerman. Rausch has opened his list to a defeated Socialist primary candidate, but his former deputy, the MEP Nathalie Griesbeck leads the centrist MoDem. Lean DVD
Montpellier (PS): The Socialist incumbent, H. Mandroux is faced by a confident right, based on the scores obtained by Sarkozy in 2007 in the city. However, Mandroux remains popular and has Communist support. While the Greens are running an independent list, they will likely fusion with the incumbent’s list. Lean PS
Montreuil (CAP/PCF): The race in Montreuil is a left-wing primary, without the Socialists. The CAP (party close to the Communists) mayor Jean-Pierre Brard faces Dominique Voynet, Green candidate in 2007 and local Senator. The Socialist has renewed its support to Brard, but local Socialists have also rallied the Green candidacy. Lean CAP/PCF
Mulhouse (GM): The former Socialist and Secretary of State for Co-operation and Francophonie Jean-Marie Bockel is running for re-election… as a “Modern Left” candidate supported by the UMP. He is faced by an “official” Socialist candidate, who represents a local party divided by Bockel’s floor crossing but decries Bockel’s “traitorious” move. Bockel hopes that his support by most of the UMP will result in his re-election in this very right-wing Alsatian city. Safe GM
Nancy (PR/UMP): The right Radical A. Rossinot, re-elected since 1983, hopes to win a fifth term. However, the left is confident based on the left’s good scores in 2007. The MoDem too is confident, with Francoise Herve, who had obtained 17% in 2001. Lean Radical
Nantes (PS): The leader of the Socialist group, Jean-Marc Ayrault is running for a fourth term, with the support of the Greens, PCF, Radicals, and the UDB. Nantes, which voted for Royal in 2007, is a traditionally left-wing city. The UMP candidate, Sophie Jozan, has, however, obtained the support of one of Ayrault’s deputy. As for the MoDem, it counts on the 21% that voted for Bayrou in April 2007. Safe PS
Nice (UMP): The battle in Nice, a right-wing stronghold, is another right-wing primary. The UMP candidate, Christian Estrosi must face the unhappy ex-FN incumbent, Jacques Peyrat, who leads a dissident list. The left is also divided between an official PS candidate and its 2001 candidate, both of which are running. In a poll by TNS-Sofres, Estrosi had 51% by the first round, compared to 18% for the PS and 14% for Peyrat. He would also defeat the Socialist and Peyrat in a three-way runoff (57-28-15) and would trounce the Socialists 70-30 in a two-way runoff. Safe UMP
Nimes (UMP): Although his term has been marked by scandals, Jean-Paul Fournier (UMP) remains popular in this former Communist city. The right, however seems safe. Sarkozy and the UMP dominated the city in the 2007 election. The left is divided between Alain Clary, the former PCF mayor, a Socialist list, a Green list, and a LCR list. Fournier would defeat Clary 57 to 43 in a runoff and would defeat the Socialist candidate 60 to 40. Safe UMP
Orleans (UMP): This UMP pickup in 2001 is vulnerable to the left, who is running united under the former PS mayor and Senator. The MoDem supports the incumbent, Serge Grouard. While the UMP swept the department in 2007, UMP and PS candidates were neck-to-neck in the city, which voted for Sarkozy (51%). Lean UMP
Paris (PS): The left, under Bertrand Delanoë, picked up the capital from a divided right in 2001. As in Lyon, the right is hoping to compensate for the “accidental loss” of the city in 2001. The UMP candidate, Françoise de Panafieu has been able to rally (for the most part) the Parisian right, used to division. The MoDem, led by MEP Marielle de Sarnez hopes to repeat the party’s good scores (especially in de Sarnez’s arrondissement, 18.5% in June) and act as kingmaker between the two rounds. The Greens are running an independent list, as they did with great success in 2001; however it is likely they will fusion with Delanoë’s lists, as in 2001. The Socialist success in the city in June (such as the pickup of the 12th arrondissement’s constituency) makes the left optimist, but Panafieu counts on the support of the right and of certain MoDems (such as Jean-Marie Cavada). However, Delanoë is highly popular in the city and the left seems in a good position to keep the city. Safe PS
Perpignan (UMP): Jean-Paul Alduy is leading the UMP in a traditionally right-wing city, that also has a strong FN presence. The left enters divided between two candidates, a PS-PCF list and a DVG list. According to an IFOP poll, Alduy has a large lead in the first round, 44-21 over the Socialist. The FN candidate, Louis Alliot would have enough support (13%) to remain in the runoff, as would the DVG candidate (11%). In a four-way runoff, Alduy would win 52-24, with 13% for the FN and 11% for the DVG. Alduy would also win 54-31-15 in a three-way runoff with the FN. Safe UMP
Reims (DVD): With the incumbent stepping down, the UMP must hold this city for the right in another primary battle. Renaud Dutreuil, former Minister and a deputy from Reims is the official UMP candidate, facing another Reims deputy and former Minister, Catherine Vautrin. In this right-wing city, the Socialists have little chance at picking up the city. Safe UMP
Rennes (PS): Edmond Hervé, mayor of the capital of the Bretagne region since 1977, is retiring in favour of Daniel Delaveau, mayor of neighboring Saint-Jacques-de-la-Lande. This city, where Royal obtained 63% in the runoff in 2007, is a solid left-wing city. However, the UMP hopes to gain votes with Karim Boudjema, an independent supported by the UMP. Boudjema calls himself a “half-Sarkozyste”. The MoDem candidate hopes to win back some of Bayrou’s 22% in the city in April. Safe PS
Rouen (UDF): Pierre Albertini, an independent centrist supported by the UMP, MoDem, and NC is extremely vulnerable in a left trending city, especially with mediocre favorable ratings. With the deputy Valérie Fourneyron, the united left hopes to gain this city. According to a TNS-Sofres poll, the left seems quite sure of picking up Rouen, dominating 54-41 by the first round. Safe PS
Saint-Etienne (UMP): Michel Thollière, UMP mayor since 1995 is faced with two strong candidates, Gilles Artigues (MoDem) and Maurice Vincent (PS-united left). Royal won the city on both rounds in 2007 and the Socialist hopes are high. Tossup
Strasbourg (UMP): Strasbourg, in Socialist hands until 2001, is the still the most left-wing city in very conservative Alsace. Fabienne Keller, the UMP incumbent must defeat the former Socialist mayor Roland Ries (from 1997 to 2000), who is in a relatively good position, the Socialists having won 50.9% in the city in June. The Greens are also running an independent list. The MoDem list has received the support of the former Green (now suspended) Yann Wehrling. Two polls showed Ries either narrowly leading or the race tied. Tossup
Toulon (UMP): The UMP under Hubert Falco picked up the right-wing bastion of Toulon from the far-right MNR incumbent Jean-Marie Le Chevallier in 2001. The department’s deputies are all UMP, but the FN remains relatively strong. Safe UMP
Toulouse (app. UMP): Jean-Luc Moudenc, the UMP mayor of Toulouse faces a tough battle in a city which gave Royal 57% of the vote and elected only Socialist deputies (Moudenc himself was defeated in June 2007). However, Moudenc is popular (more so than his predecessor, Philippe Douste-Blazy). While polls indicate a narrow lead for Moudenc in the first round (mainly due to the presence of a anti-liberal list led by a Socialist), the runoff is very tight. The latest poll shows him defeated 52-48 in the runoff. Tossup
Tours (PS): The left is confident of its chances to give Jean Germain a third term. As in 2001, he will face former Culture Minister Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, who must deal with a divided right. Guillaume Peltier, young deputy of the MPF, who had obtained almost 6% in the June legislative elections, is also running. Safe PS
Villeurbanne (PS): The right is confident of its chances to pickup the Lyon suburb of Villeurbanne from the Socialist incumbent. Royal narrowly won the city, with only 50.9%. Henry Chabert, former deputy of the ex-mayor of Lyon Michel Noir, is leading a tough campaign against the PS incumbent. Lean PS