Limousin (PS +2)

Correze: Chiracquia has fallen. In Tulle, the first secretary of the PS, Francois Hollande was re-elected with over 72% by the first round (compared to only 51% in 2001). The pink tsunami in the department also made two other right-wing cities, Brive-la-Gaillarde and Ussel fall to the left. Ussel is in fact located in the 3rd constituency, the only remaining UMP constituency and Chirac’s stronghold. The tsunami also made the general council of Correze finally switch to the left. The most right-wing department in the Limousin is now left-wing. Total PS +2

Creuse: The re-election of the 3 major city Socialist mayors in the Creuse was a simple formality, the left took 73% in Gueret, 60% in La Souterraine, and “only” 59.75% in Aubusson. All this, of course, by the first round.

Haute-Vienne: In the Limousin’s most left-wing department, where division does not result in a right-wing gain, the left was of course easily re-elected in Limoges and Saint-Junien. Alain Rodet, the PS mayor of Limoges took 56% and the left took 73% in Saint-Junien. All this, of course, by the first round.

Auvergne (=)

Allier: Despite the general council switching to the left, the left didn’t do so good in the communes. In Montlucon, the UMP incumbent was barely re-elected with 50 some percent, with the PS far behind with 24% and the PCF with 21.6%. In Moulins, the UMP incumbent squeaked by, with 46% to 44.4% to the PS. However, there was a dissident DVD list. In Vichy, the UMP incumbent was re-elected with 51.2% in the runoff. The general council, however, gave the left a majority over the right. To compensate for them losing the Seine-Saint-Denis to the PS, the PS gave the Communists the presidency of the Allier department. The PCF had held the department until 2001.

Cantal: In the first constituency, less conservative and more urban than the second, the left, already holding Aurillac, was easily re-elected, with over 63% in the runoff. In the rural second constituency, the right was re-elected with 66% in Saint-Flour, a stronghold for the right.

Haute-Loire: In the stronghold of the catholic right, the right did well, better than in 2001 in fact. Despite the department being a stronghold for the right, Le-Puy-en-Velay is an exception. In 2001, the left gained Le-Puy-en-Velay to the general surprise. However, in 2008, the UMP, led by then-government spokesperson Laurent Wauquiez gained the city by the first round with around 56%. In Yssingeaux, the right-wing incumbent was re-elected with 69%. Total UMP +1

Puy-de-Dome: The bastion of Giscardie, the Puy-de-Dome is still the base of the Auvergne left. Indeed, in Issoire, the left benefited from the presence of two DVD lists to defeat, with a plurality, the incumbent DVD mayor. The total of the right, however, was larger than that of the left. In Riom, the PS took 53.64% by the first round, defeating the UMP and a MoDem at 20%. In Thiers, there was no right-wing list, leaving the battle between the DVG incumbent and the PS candidate. The DVG incumbent took 56%. In Clermont-Ferrand, where the far left is often over to 10% threshold, 2008 was no different. After Brice Hortefeux declined to run in Clermont for the UMP, the competitiveness of the city ended and Serge Godard (PS) was likely to win. He did win, in a four-way runoff. He took 51.7% in the runoff, compared to 22.34% for the UMP and a non-negligible 15.34% for the far-left. The MoDem took 10.6%. In Chamalieres, Giscard’s city now held by his son, his son was re-elected with 57%. Total PS +1

Basse-Normandie (PS +2)

Calvados: After the defeat of the two incumbent UMP/NC deputies last June in Caen, the right was in a comfortable position to take Caen from the hands of Brigitte Le Brethon, the UMP incumbent. The right and before that the centrists had ruled Caen since 1959. However, the pink wave of 2008 benefited the left, which won 56.3% in the runoff, largely defeating the incumbent. In the more conservatives cities of Vire, Bayeux, and Lisieux, right-wing incumbents were easily defeated, despite the fact that Vire and Bayeux were starting to trend towards the left. Total PS +1

Manche: The Manche confirmed its friendliness to incumbents again in 2008, giving the right another term in St-Lo, despite many saying that the right was about to lose it. In the working-class region of Cherbourg-Octeville, the PS incumbent was, of course, easily re-elected. The constituency of Cherbourg-Octeville, the 5th constituency, is in fact the only constituency in the right-wing department to have elected Socialist deputies.

Orne: Despite still being largely dominated by the right in the general council, the Orne’s 2 largest municipalities are now Socialist. The PS successfully held Argentan, with over 60% and the PS gained Alencon by the first round, largely defeating the UMP incumbent. In Flers, the race was not stressful for the DVG incumbent, who won no less than 100%. Total PS +1

Haute-Normandie (PS-PCF-DVG +3)

Eure: The left-wing wave in Seine-Maritime (see below) also spilled into Eure and its prefecture of Evreux. Evreux, formerly held by the UMP Jean-Louis Debre (now president of the Constitutional Council), decided to dump his UMP successor, Jean-Pierre Nicolas in favour of a new DVG mayor, Michel Champredon. Elsewhere, however, no notable change took place, with the right holding onto Bernay and Vernon and the left holding onto Louviers and Val-de-Reuil. Total DVG +1

Seine-Maritime: The left wave really stands out in Seine-Maritime. The largest result for the left was in Rouen, where the PS candidate defeated, by the first round, the centrist-UDF incumbent Pierre Albertini. Rouen, had elected centrist mayors since 1945 (except for one PS between 1995 and 2001), the most notable of whom was Jean Lecanuet. In Dieppe, despite the fact that the CNIP incumbent was not standing again, the left, led by a young Communist, won by the first round. In Le Havre, however, the PCF failed to win this other communist area from the hands of the UMP Antoine Rufenacht. After merging lists with the PS, the PCF candidate and deputy Daniel Paul lost, with the UMP taking about 54.7%. In two other cities held by the left, such as Elbeuf and Fecamp, the left largely won. Total PS +1 PCF +1

Next: Limousin, Auvergne

Centre (PS-PCF +2)

Cher: The results in the Cher were not that surprising taken as a whole. The Radical-UMP mayor of Bourges, Serge Lepeltier, was re-elected to his office by the first round, defeating a PS and far-left list. The west of the Cher, meaning the 2nd constituency, is still a Communist “stronghold”, still held by the PCF in the National Assembly. It confirmed its alliegance to the PCF by largely dumping the DVD mayor in Vierzon in favour of a Communist. This all happened by the first round, with Sansu (PCF) defeating the DVD incumbent with over 57.6% of the votes. In the rural southern conservative city of Saint-Amand-Montrond, the right kept its hand on the city, easily, defeating the MoDem and PS in the runoff. The right, which had hopes to win the department back, failed to do so. Total PCF +1

Eure-et-Loir: To the general surprise, stability prevailed in the major cities of Eure-et-Loir. The most surprising result was the UMP mayor Jean-Pierre Gorges holding Chartres, even more surprising considering that a month before that, the Socialists had won his seat in a by-election. In fact, the race was a re-match between the same candidates (the UMP, PS, and MoDem list leaders had all stood in the by-election). Gorges was re-elected, when polls gave him defeated and pundits had signed off Chartres as an easy PS gain. Also noteworthy is the MoDem collapse in Chartres, falling to just 13.7% compared to over 18% in the by-election and June general election. Stability also prevailed elsewhere, the left held Nogent-le-Rotrou and the right held Dreux (a former FN stronghold under the Stirbois family inc.). In Chateaudun, a UMP dissident defeated the UMP mayor. For an unrelated lighter note, the UMP president of the general council, Albéric de Montgolfier is related to the Mongolfier brothers…

Indre: The largest city of the Indre department, Chateauroux, in PS hands until 2001, failed to switch to the left and the UMP incumbent was re-elected with 50.23% by the first round. The left held Le Blanc and Issoudun, the department’s left-wing bastion.

Indre-et-Loire: On the municipal level, the left, already controlling the two major cities of Tours and Amboise, held both of them easily. In Tours, the former stronghold of the christian conservative Jean Royer (until 1995, type Jean Royer on ina.fr for fun) the Socialist Jean Germain defeated the UMP sacrificial lamb, former Minister of Culture Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres (already defeated in June 2007). The MPF candidate and the rising star of the party, Guillaume Peltier won 8% in the city and won 21% in the canton of Tours-Val de Cher. The left also held Amboise with 58.9%, despite it having given Sarkozy 55% in May 2007. On the cantonales scene, the left gained the general council for the first time ever. The right had controlled the department since… 1958.

Loir-et-Cher: The left scored an important victory in the department, taking the prefecture of Blois from the NC incumbent. In addition, they held Vendome narrowly against a right which had hoped to cancel out Blois with a gain in Vendome. In the leftist city of Romorantin-Lanthenay, the PS incumbent was re-elected with about 63% by the first round. Total PS +1

Loiret: Serge Grouard, the UMP incumbent, held Orleans narrowly, with 51.37%. In Montargis and Gien, the two other cities of the department, the right easily won, as expected, but with the independent PCF lists doing well, with over 20% in Montargis and 14.6% in Gien.

Next: Normandie

Bretagne (UMP&DVD +4)

Ille-et-Vilaine: The result in Ille-et-Vilaine was status quo, as it had been expected to some extent. Daniel Delaveau, Edmond Herve’s chosen successor, was easily elected in the socialist city of Rennes in a three-way runoff against the UMP and the MoDem. In fact Delaveau increased his mentor’s 2001 score. In Saint-Malo, the UMP incumbent was re-elected in a three-way runoff with the MoDem. In Vitre, the long time stronghold of Pierre Mehaignerie, the figure of the UDF and later UMP in the department, Mehaignerie was re-elected by the first round with 62.4%. The race in Fougères could have been interesting if Thierry Benoit, the centrist MP for the Fougères constituency, had thrown his hat into the race. That was not to be, and the Socialist incumbent was re-elected with over 60%. Redon, which is slowly trending Socialist, was a Socialist target, but the DVD incumbent was re-elected. In Dinard, the most solid right-wing city in the department, the right took the leisure of going into the election divided (as they do in everyone of their strongholds) between 2 DVD lists. The DVD list led by the incumbent mayor was re-elected with 47.28 against 43.69 for the other DVD candidate. However, the canton of Dinard flipped to the Left Radicals in the cantonales elections!

Cotes d’Armor: In the left-wing bastion that is Cotes d’Armor, the left has reason to be deceived. In Saint-Brieuc, a Socialist stronghold gained by the UDF in 2001 and now held by the MoDem, the MoDem incumbent, supported by the UMP, was re-elected, and even increased his score over 2001, winning 54.3% agaist 51.7% in 2001. In Dinan, another Socialist target, the right was re-elected. Unsurprisingly, the left sweeped re-election in Lannion and Guingamp while the right was re-elected in Loudeac, the department’s most right-wing city.

Morbihan: As in Ille-et-Vilaine, the status-quo prevailed in the right-leaning Morbihan. The UMP incumbent, a notable anti-Sarkozy, was re-elected in Vannes with 51.6 and the Socialists won by the first round, as expected, in Lorient with 64%. The left also held Auray, a right-wing target, and Pontivy.

Finistere: The left’s only major gain regionwide was in Quimper, Finistere where the MEP Bernard Poignant and mayor of the city from 1998 to 2001 retrieved his seat, lost to the right in 2001, in a three-way runoff against the UMP and the MoDem. The UMP incumbent was not standing for re-election. In Brest, the PS incumbent was re-elected with over 60%. However, the rest of the department was extremely favourable to the right! Right-wing candidates defeated left-wing incumbents in Morlaix, Landerneau, Douarnenez, Quimperle, and Concarneau; all cities which vote for the left in other elections. Total UMP&DVD +4.

Loire-Atlantique: Another department that ended up entirely status-quo. Ayrault was easily re-elected in Nantes with 55.7% by the first round, like in 2001. In Saint-Nazaire, the Socialist incumbent needed to wait until the runoff to be elected, but his seat was never in jeopardy anyways. The right held on successfully to its strongholds in La Baule-Escoublac and Guerande, and squeaked through in Orvault.

Pays de la Loire (=)

Vendee: Guess what happened here? Status-quo! The left swept through in La Roche-sur-Yon by the first round and held Fontenay-le-Comte by a whisker. The right had hoped to win Fontenay-le-Comte, but they did what they’re best at: run divided in the runoff and lose! The right did hold Les Herbiers, Challans, and Les Sables-d’Olonne. Philippe de Villiers, the MPF leader and the Führer of Vendee since 1988 was given another term in office.

Maine-et-Loire: The right had hoped to win Angers, and the UMP candidate did come first in the first round. However, with good vote reserves from the far-left and the PCF, the Socialist incumbent squeaked back into office by a whisker. In the southwest the UMP held Cholet by the first round and gained Saumur from the Greenies. Total UMP +1

Mayenne: In Mayenne, the left gained Laval, a city it had lost in 1995 to the right,  by the first round. The left was easily returned in Mayenne (city, not department!) and the right was easily re-elected in Château-Gontier. The MoDem president of the department Jean Arthuis was re-elected. Total PS +1

Sarthe: Guess what happened here? Status-quo! As expected, the Socialists easily held onto Le Mans by the first round and the PS incumbent in La Flèche. The right, on its side, held on to Sable-sur-Sarthe very easily and as expected. I don’t go off into small villages, but in the village of Solesmes the Prime Minister, Francois Fillon, held onto his seat in the city council.

Poitou-Charentes (PS +3)

Charente-Maritime: The only gain in the major cities of Charente-Maritime was the PS victory in Saintes. The PS mayor Maxime Bono held La Rochelle by the first, as expected, and retained Rochefort 52-48 in the runoff. The right, on its side, held Royan. In the general council, the UMP majority was returned, but the department is now led by the former UMP minister of Transports Dominique Bussereau. Total PS +1

Charente: The Charente department confirmed its alliegance to the left by dumping two right-wing incumbents in Angoulême (the department’s prefecture) and Cognac while retaining the PS majority in the general council. Total PS +2

Deux-Sevres: The home department of Segolene Royal, the PS leader of the region, continued trending to the left. In Niort, the department’s main city, the left was returned (but the incumbent himself was defeated in favour of another Socialist) very easily. The left also gained Thouars, located in the north of the department while the right held onto its cities of Bressuire and Parthenay. The department swinged to the left, with the Socialists ending the right-wing domination of the department in effect since the 1970s. Total PS +1

Vienne: In Poitiers, the Socialist incumbent was returned by the first round. In Loudun, the right held the city, despite the incumbent retiring. The New Centre gained Châtellerault, the department’s second largest city, with the election of NC deputy Jean-Pierre Abelin. Total NC +1

Next: Centre, Normandie

PS: It is incontestable that there was a sharp swing to the left, specifically the Socialists, in the first round. The PS gained Rouen and Laval by the first round, Delanoe won over 40% in Paris, Collomb was re-elected in Lyon by the first round, and the PS is threateningly close to the UMP in Marseille. In Strasbourg, Caen, Amiens, Reims, Colombes and other cities, the PS came first, beating the UMP or centrist incumbent. Finally, in Toulouse, the left seems to have the upper hand in the runoff against the UMP incumbent. Also, numerous Socialist mayors were re-elected by the first round, such as Francois Hollande who took 72.25% in Tulle.

UMP: While some predicted a 1977-like rout for the majority, the right resisted generally well. Unexpectedly, they came first in Angers against the PS incumbent and first in Toulouse (where polls predicted a second-place finish). While they did horribly in Lyon and badly in Paris, in smaller cities the right resisted well against a pink wave. In fact, Laurent Wauquiez gained Le Puy-en-Velay in Haute-Loire from the PS and Luc Chatel did likewise in Chaumont, Haute-Loire. The UMP also has a chance to pick up cities like Calais, Saumur, or Belfort. Internal divisions prevented the UMP from first round victories in cities like Nice, Boulogne-Billancourt, Versailles, or Neuilly.

MoDem: The results of the MoDem are a mixed bag. While they did well in cities like Rennes, Quimper, Arras, Saint-Etienne, Saint-Brieuc, or Paris the MoDem came second in its leader’s hometown, Pau and got mediocre results in Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, Nice, or Toulouse. In Paris the MoDem can maintain itself in only 3 runoffs (5, 7, 14). Incumbent MoDem mayors did well, Vanlerenberghe was re-elected with over 55%, even though some had predicted his defeat. In Saint-Brieuc, the capital of the Cotes-d’Armor and a very left-wing city, Bruno Joncour took with 44.7% and improved his score over 2001!

Communist Party: The Communists resisted, in most cases, formidably well to both its perennial decline and PS-prompted primaries. In the “9-3 primaries” where PCF mayor also faced PS candidates, the Communists resisted well and are favoured, in most cases, to hold the towns in the runoffs. In La Courneuve, the Communist mayor led the Socialists by about 10%; in Saint-Denis or Bagnolet it led by 20%. It was closer in Aubervilliers where the runoff is between the PCF-PS-MoDem-UMP. The Communists, with their 36-year old candidate, Sébastien Jumel, gained Diepp, a city lost in 2001. The Communists also gained Vierzon. However, the Communists are also facing difficulties, in cities like Calais, or in the general council of Seine-Saint-Denis, where the Socialist Claude Bartolone is poised to replace the Communist leadership of the department.

Greens: The Greens, which were counting on the elections to revive their chances did OK. While they saw their vote in Paris halved compared to their 12% in 2001; the party got 19% in Valence, 11.6% in Lille, 11.1% in Montpellier, and 16.8% in Quimper. In most of these cases, or all of these cases, the Greens are likely to merge with the Socialist list as they already did in Paris. In Saumur, however, where the Green mayor was re-elected by the first round in 2001, the right has a definite chance at a pickup.

FN: After a disastrous year in 2007, March 2008 was not much better for the FN. His daughter was far behind the unpopular PS incumbent in Henin-Beaumont and the party did horribly in its former strongholds (such as Nice, where they got only 4.2%). The FN score rose a bit in Marseille, where it is qualified for the runoff in the Marseille-7 sector against the UMP and the PS. In Toulon, a city in FN/MNR hands until 2001, the FN candidate polled 6.55%; in Megret’s Vitrolles, the FN was eliminated with its 9.74%. In some regions, the FN did not even run candidates, such as in Brittany. It was eligible for 40 runoffs in cities with 30,000+ population in 2001, the FN is eligible for only 7 in 2008. The FN is in the runoff in Calais (where it may merge with the UMP to defeat the PCF), Mulhouse (against Bockel and the PS), and Perpignan (a four-way runoff, UMP-PS-DVG-FN).

Reims: Firstly, I am retracting my Safe UMP prediction for Reims. Over the past few weeks, the race there changed a lot, to the point where the Socialists are favoured to win! The UMP and the DVD-MoDem candidate would be tied with 26% each and 10% behind the Socialists. The left, according to the same poll, would win in 3 runoff scenarios- with 42% in a three-way runoff (PS, UMP, DVD); with 54% against the UMP; and with 51% against the DVD-MD candidate. I am skeptic about polls, and I am not changing my prediction to lean PS. I will keep it as tossup and will make a call on March 10th.

Marseille: The left has taken a boost in polls these past few days; Guerini (PS) took the lead with in a TNS-Sofres first round poll, with the FN a strong third at 9%. The poll’s credibility is destroyed by the fact they did a runoff poll. Any pollster doing a runoff poll in PLM deserve that have their polls trashed (good pollsters like Ipsos don’t do runoff polling in PLM). Back to the situation. The winner in France’s third largest city will be decided by the 3rd sector currently held by a UMP incumbent. Guerini himself is the PS leader in the 3rd sector. Renaud Muselier leads the UMP list. As said before, I now have serious issues with TNS-Sofres, but they did a poll with the PS leading the first round 40-37.5 and tied 50-50 in the runoff. Local sector runoff polls make a little more sense, but I remain very skeptic as to TNS-Sofres now.

If the PS wins the sector, they will control 4 sectors, as will the UMP, not counting any other UMP or PS gains (which are unlikely).

The prediction for Marseille is now tossup.