The first round of the by-election in the 11th constituency of the Rhone was held today after the election of Georges Fenech (UMP) was invalidated by the Constitutional Council. 9 candidates were standing.

Before anything else, the results.

NC-UMP 41.78%
PS 23.29%
PCF 15.32%
Greenies 6.25%
MoDem 5.09%
FN 4.04%
LCR 3.32%
PRG 0.48%
ARC 0.45%

Basically the pattern to be expected for the NC-UMP, they lost 6.31% over June 2007, a result of bad turnout (27.03%) and the UMP’s current unpopularity. The Socialists lost 0.35%, but considering how strong the PCF ran, it’s still a good result for the PS. The PCF obtained an excellent result, better than its 1993 or 1997 results by far and only a bit below its 1988 level (16.1%). Can be explained by two things: the PCF candidate had excellent name recognition- he’s the mayor of Givors, the constituency’s largest city and the PCF always does relatively well in the constituency (provided they run a candidate, they didn’t in 2002 or 2007). The Greenies also got a good result, better than their 2007 result by 1.86%, but below their 12% record in 1993 (obviously). The FN actually lost votes, their voters not turning out well, and they lost 1.1% over their already dreadful June 2007 result. The MoDem, who won 9.6% in June lost 4.55% and is left behind the Greenies with 5.09%. They still hold the key to the runoff (more on that later).

In addition, due the excellent Prefecture of the Rhone, we have data by commune and a map is possible!

The pattern to be expected in a constituency like this one. The NC candidate, who is the general councillor for Saint-Symphorien did well in that area (which is generally the best area for any UMP candidate too) but less so in Mornant and Condrieu. The left won the belt between Condrieu and the north (where Givors is) and the PCF candidate broke 40% in his city of Givors (he’s the mayor) and took over 30% in a suburb. The same urban vs. rural trend seen in 2007 continues.

For the runoff now, you ask? Well, Durand (NC) has a small advantage, but it should be quite narrow (probably the 2002 results, in fact, 51-49 for Durand or something similar). The MoDem will probably be the key in this, assuming the left has a full turnout of all PCF, Green, PRG voters, which gives it around 48% and about 49% if the Trots turn out well (which they don’t, they’re an unreliable lot).

If you’re interested in the data by commune, the source is here. (needs PDF).

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A by-election will be held in the 11th constituency of the Rhône departement in the near future after the invalidation of the election of the UMP deputy Georges Fenech in 2007. Fenech was also condemned to a one-year ban on public office.

The 11th constituency includes the Lyon suburban cantons of Givors, Mornant, Condrieu, and Saint-Symphorien d’Ozon. Givors, the largest city, is a long-time Communist stronghold, and still detained by a PCF mayor. The left dominates in the city and its suburbs in most national elections. The right, however, has a lock on votes in the rural areas, predominantly those in the cantons of Mornant and Saint-Symphorien, but also in Condrieu (which is a bellwether, close county)

Fenech was re-elected to a second term in 2007 with 56.54% in the runoff against the Socialist candidate, who took 43.46%. Fenech had almost won by the first round, where he took 48.9% against 23.64% for the Socialist. The MoDem obtained 9.64%, the FN won 5.14%, the Greens 4.39%, the LCR candidate took 3.52%. 6 other candidates split the few remaining votes.

The map below shows how the communes part of the constituency voted:

The constituency has had a net shift to the right since 2002.

In the 1993 Socialist disaster, the constituency booted out its PS incumbent- by the first round- and chose a RPR-FN runoff. To be fair, the PS wasn’t help by a strong PCF (11.51%) and the Greenies (12.41%). The RPR candidate took 38.49%, the FN won 17.99% and the PS was closely behind with 16.88%. Bahu, RPR, won with 68.6%. The 1988-1993 PS deputy had a second run in 1997, where he won, profiting from a three-way PS-RPR-FN runoff. The RPR incumbent, who had led the first round, had trouble rallying voters, while the Socialists rallied about 10,000 more voters, mostly Communists and Greens. The FN, with 22.32% in the first round, won just 15.77%, but possibly denied Bahu (RPR) a second term. Fenech was elected in 2002, defeating the PS incumbent, which had led the first round. Fenech was able to get the UDF’s 15.1% and possibly most of the FN’s 15.3% and DL’s 7.4%. He won narrowly, with 51.98%. His 2007 score was thus much superior to his 2002 score, a rarity in the 2007 runoff climate.

Looking at other elections, Sarkozy took 57.88% in the constituency in 2007. Up in 2004, the canton of Givors re-elected a PCF councillor. In 2008, Candrieu re-elected its PS councillor, who took advantage of the divisions of the right. In Saint-Symphorien, the most right-wing canton, the NC councillor won 62% by the first round. Mornant re-elected a MoDem councillor.

The UMP will likely win the by-election, possibly with a reduced margin in both rounds. The FN might gain back a few votes lost in 2007, while the MoDem should hold relatively stable.

Just some random things I’ll ramble about to close the 2008 French local election season.

Total Gains: Left +48 over the right. Total for all cities talked about in all regions. It doesn’t include changes within the same majority (such as PCF > Greenie, PCF > PS etc). The PS lost cities in only 2 regions, Bretagne (limited to one department, the 29) and Champagne-Ardenne.

Personal Votes: Looking at the vote totals in some cities that are normally close in national races, the incumbents usually carried their races with a much larger MoV than their party did in 2007. Doesn’t apply in general to one party, but to generally everybody.

Revenge: Two major revenges happened. Firstly, Juppe held Bordeaux after losing his constituency in 2007. In Chartres, the UMP incumbent defeated the Socialist who had taken his seat in a by-election earlier this year (even though he was supposed to get trounced).

Polls: They predicted the PS gains in Strasbourg, Toulouse, Reims and others; and were quite good in Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Rennes, Lille, Bordeaux so forth. They didn’t have the PS winning Saint-Etienne or most importantly Amiens (which was really a huge surprise result, both rounds). They had Tourcoing staying PS, but didn’t see the first round victory there.