A by-election will be held in the 11th constituency of the Rhône departement in the near future after the invalidation of the election of the UMP deputy Georges Fenech in 2007. Fenech was also condemned to a one-year ban on public office.

The 11th constituency includes the Lyon suburban cantons of Givors, Mornant, Condrieu, and Saint-Symphorien d’Ozon. Givors, the largest city, is a long-time Communist stronghold, and still detained by a PCF mayor. The left dominates in the city and its suburbs in most national elections. The right, however, has a lock on votes in the rural areas, predominantly those in the cantons of Mornant and Saint-Symphorien, but also in Condrieu (which is a bellwether, close county)

Fenech was re-elected to a second term in 2007 with 56.54% in the runoff against the Socialist candidate, who took 43.46%. Fenech had almost won by the first round, where he took 48.9% against 23.64% for the Socialist. The MoDem obtained 9.64%, the FN won 5.14%, the Greens 4.39%, the LCR candidate took 3.52%. 6 other candidates split the few remaining votes.

The map below shows how the communes part of the constituency voted:

The constituency has had a net shift to the right since 2002.

In the 1993 Socialist disaster, the constituency booted out its PS incumbent- by the first round- and chose a RPR-FN runoff. To be fair, the PS wasn’t help by a strong PCF (11.51%) and the Greenies (12.41%). The RPR candidate took 38.49%, the FN won 17.99% and the PS was closely behind with 16.88%. Bahu, RPR, won with 68.6%. The 1988-1993 PS deputy had a second run in 1997, where he won, profiting from a three-way PS-RPR-FN runoff. The RPR incumbent, who had led the first round, had trouble rallying voters, while the Socialists rallied about 10,000 more voters, mostly Communists and Greens. The FN, with 22.32% in the first round, won just 15.77%, but possibly denied Bahu (RPR) a second term. Fenech was elected in 2002, defeating the PS incumbent, which had led the first round. Fenech was able to get the UDF’s 15.1% and possibly most of the FN’s 15.3% and DL’s 7.4%. He won narrowly, with 51.98%. His 2007 score was thus much superior to his 2002 score, a rarity in the 2007 runoff climate.

Looking at other elections, Sarkozy took 57.88% in the constituency in 2007. Up in 2004, the canton of Givors re-elected a PCF councillor. In 2008, Candrieu re-elected its PS councillor, who took advantage of the divisions of the right. In Saint-Symphorien, the most right-wing canton, the NC councillor won 62% by the first round. Mornant re-elected a MoDem councillor.

The UMP will likely win the by-election, possibly with a reduced margin in both rounds. The FN might gain back a few votes lost in 2007, while the MoDem should hold relatively stable.