The first round of the by-election in the 11th constituency of the Rhone was held today after the election of Georges Fenech (UMP) was invalidated by the Constitutional Council. 9 candidates were standing.

Before anything else, the results.

NC-UMP 41.78%
PS 23.29%
PCF 15.32%
Greenies 6.25%
MoDem 5.09%
FN 4.04%
LCR 3.32%
PRG 0.48%
ARC 0.45%

Basically the pattern to be expected for the NC-UMP, they lost 6.31% over June 2007, a result of bad turnout (27.03%) and the UMP’s current unpopularity. The Socialists lost 0.35%, but considering how strong the PCF ran, it’s still a good result for the PS. The PCF obtained an excellent result, better than its 1993 or 1997 results by far and only a bit below its 1988 level (16.1%). Can be explained by two things: the PCF candidate had excellent name recognition- he’s the mayor of Givors, the constituency’s largest city and the PCF always does relatively well in the constituency (provided they run a candidate, they didn’t in 2002 or 2007). The Greenies also got a good result, better than their 2007 result by 1.86%, but below their 12% record in 1993 (obviously). The FN actually lost votes, their voters not turning out well, and they lost 1.1% over their already dreadful June 2007 result. The MoDem, who won 9.6% in June lost 4.55% and is left behind the Greenies with 5.09%. They still hold the key to the runoff (more on that later).

In addition, due the excellent Prefecture of the Rhone, we have data by commune and a map is possible!

The pattern to be expected in a constituency like this one. The NC candidate, who is the general councillor for Saint-Symphorien did well in that area (which is generally the best area for any UMP candidate too) but less so in Mornant and Condrieu. The left won the belt between Condrieu and the north (where Givors is) and the PCF candidate broke 40% in his city of Givors (he’s the mayor) and took over 30% in a suburb. The same urban vs. rural trend seen in 2007 continues.

For the runoff now, you ask? Well, Durand (NC) has a small advantage, but it should be quite narrow (probably the 2002 results, in fact, 51-49 for Durand or something similar). The MoDem will probably be the key in this, assuming the left has a full turnout of all PCF, Green, PRG voters, which gives it around 48% and about 49% if the Trots turn out well (which they don’t, they’re an unreliable lot).

If you’re interested in the data by commune, the source is here. (needs PDF).

Also, a by-election runoff was held today in the 5th constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes (a weird constituency going from northern Nice all the way up to the Alps and the Italian border). Christian Estrosi was (re-)elected after he had resigned to enter government (in June 2007) then his successor resigned after he became Mayor of Nice (in March), so now he’s back there.

In the first round held last week, he took 61.1% (but only 21.2% of registered voters, missing a first round election) and the PS took 20.7%; meaning both parties gained. The PCF took 5.55%, down from about 7% in 2007, the FN lost votes again (after dreadful 2007) with 4.83% now. On the other hand, an independent far-right candidate increased his share from 2007, now with 4.6% against 2.2% in 2007. The MEI candidate took 3.2%, mostly gaining from the Greens, who ran in June but not in the by-election. In the runoff, Estrosi won 69.37% and turnout was 34.31%. Nothing major there, even though that got more press today than a potentially interesting runoff in the 11th of the Rhone.

This entry was posted on Sunday, May 25th, 2008 at 6:43 pm and is filed under Election results analysis, French by-elections, French election results. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.