For those of you who have followed recent French by-elections you’ll probably ask why the 1st Eure-et-Loir constituency comes up a second time. The reason is hilarious. In December 2007, the UMP deputy for the constituency, Jean-Pierre Gorges saw his election invalidated. In January, he was defeated by the Socialist Francoise Vallet. Just now, she has been invalidated for a reason that is a little silly: a supermarket campaigned for her and she accepted the endorsement. In addition to the silly reason, she is ineligible for any elected office for a period of one year. So, for the third (in some cases, fourth) the voters will need to elect another deputy hoping he or she isn’t invalidated in August or September.

The constituency is a bellwether constituency: in 1988 and 1997 it elected PS deputies, in 1993, 2002, and June 2007 it elected a RPR or UMP deputy. However, the June 2007 election was very close, with Gorges (UMP) defeating Vallet (PS) by a handful of votes. By the time of the 1st by-election in January 2008, the government’s popularity had dipped and the PS won with 55.3% in the runoff, probably taking most of the MoDem’s 18.5%. The March 2008 Chartres local election was a replay of the by-election, with the top three candidates in the by-election standing as candidates of their respective parties. Vallet was heavily favoured to win and the MoDem, which polled only 13.5% merged with Vallet’s list. Mathematically, it was quite hard for Gorges to win. But he did. And not by a handful of votes, more like 55-45. MoDem voters probably voted against their party’s line. Based on the 55-45 result in the last election, the race definitely leans to the Socialists, but the defeat of Vallet in Chartres in March makes this more competitive. The PS needs to hold this seat, and the UMP needs to regain this seat. The MoDem, which polled 18.5% in the by-election but only 13.5% in Chartres (the MoDem took over 18% in the city in June and the by-election) must try to keep its result up at 18%. The FN, which polled 12% in 2002 but 5% in June and 4.2% in January will probably try to get back atleast to its 5% result.

This entry was posted on Friday, July 4th, 2008 at 9:58 am and is filed under French by-elections, French political commentary. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.